By Scott L. - SL Sports Staff
If it weren't for the start of football season, we'd almost be sorry to see August leave us.
We closed the month on an all-time Major League Baseball betting selection hot streak, winning 16 straight Superstar and All-Star picks before dropping the last one of the month yesterday when the Giants' rally came up short. We'll take that type of a run any day and are hoping for even more positive results as we move toward the postseason.
Just a reminder, our Superstar picks are the ones that our proprietary algorithm projects at having 70 percent or better win probabilities. All-Star selections are 60 percent or better. While we don't expect to have many 16-game winning streaks, in the last two decades our model has performed at well over a 60 percent success rate across the board with MLB, NFL, NBA, college football and college basketball selections.
For football season it will take three or four weeks for us to gather enough data to feel comfortable releasing algorithm picks. Be patient; we promise it will be worth the wait.
Another reminder, these picks won't be free forever. While we will always provide some free info and high-quality advice because we do want to help as many people as we can, once we get all the bugs with the new website ironed out and assign all the proper password protection to the member areas of the site, you will have to pay to get the Superstar and All-Star picks.
In the meantime, use the forms on the site to subscribe. Once we go to paid selections, all subscribers will be notified of the changes and also get free bonus picks and info just for being part of our community. We welcome everyone to use this site to your advantage.
For today, we have one All-Star MLB selection:
SL Sports MLB All-Star Pick 9/1
New York Yankees -205 vs. St. Louis Cardinals 1:35 p.m. EDT
Nestor Cortes (8-10, 3.89) vs. Miles Mikolas (8-10, 5.23)
That's right, our Miles Mikolas fade continues. After an inconsistent July, Nestor Cortes has gotten it together lately, posting a 2.49 ERA in August. Meanwhile, Mikolas was at 6.30 for the month and has an ERA over 5.00 for the season. Sure, his advanced numbers are better than that at a 4.10 combined average for his xFIP and xERA, but Cortes has better numbers across the board in all categories. The Yankees, coming off a loss, need every win they can get as they fight for the American League East title, and they have the best two offensive players on the field by a mile in Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. New York has the best OPS in baseball vs. right-handed pitchers at .795, and they average a run more per game and allow about half a run per game less than St. Louis.
Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze?
We know for a fact that some sports bettors can't stomach the juice (short odds); that's why so many touts out there bet underdogs. They are looking for more bang for their buck and realize that if they hit a bunch of underdogs during a stretch they can mask a low winning percentage with a decent short-term ROI. The key word there is "short term." We are looking for a long-term, consistent ROI that we can count on, and for the last two decades that's exactly what we've provided for our clients and customers.
So, while you may not win as much on any given day with one of our "higher-juice" selections, the key is that you will win. We have won consistently for years, and so will you if you follow our lead. Small wins over and over add up. Winning is what's important.
Don't Do It
We will be sure to tell you when betting the run line at -1.5 is worth considering. We never will recommend taking the run line on our All-Star selections, since they have a 60-percent win percentage vs. our Superstar selections that are 70 percent or better. Sometimes people assume that if a line is -200 or better they automatically take the run line, and that's simply not the case. When we have a SuperStar pick that meets very strict criteria and the odds approach or exceed the -240 or -250 level, we will let you know that the same team on the run line may be an All-Star-level pick with a win probability of 60 percent or better. Or we may recommend that you place 75 percent of your bet on the money line and 25 percent on the run line. We won't keep this a secret from you. We understand that a large percentage of our potential customers will be hesitant to place bets with very short odds, and will always look to present you with viable options.
HOWEVER, WE WILL ALWAYS RECOMMEND TAKING OUR HIGHEST-PROBABILITY OPTION. YOU CAN BET THE LESSER OPTION AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Parlay City
Likewise, we are always looking at prop bets and other sports for opportunities to make your odds more palatable via parlays, teasers, etc. This can be a tricky business. If it was easy there wouldn't be all those fancy buildings in Las Vegas as the books don't give away money. But there definitely can be solid edges with this approach and we will work hard to find the best recommendations when appropriate. That said, these will NEVER be recommended bets. Parlays and teasers are always bet at your own risk, but we are in the customer service business and want to make our clients happy.
A few Parlay City options for today:
Yankees and Judge 1+ total bases = -140 on DK
Yankees and Soto 1+ total bases = -135 on DK
Yankees and Judge 1.5+ total bases = +120 on DK
Yankees and Soto 1.5+ total bases = +138 on DK
Pick your poison, but bet at your own risk!
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