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The first big Thursday of the college football season brings with it a ton of games, but only a few of them are expected to be competitive. Of the 21 contests on the first Thursday-night NCAA slate of the year, only eight of them are expected to be decided by fewer than 10 points.
And of those eight, maybe three really are of any interest to most college football fans. Nine of the 21 contests carry point spreads of 31.5 points are better.
Huge point spreads are a double-edge sword. There is a reason that bookmakers post spreads that large; the games are complete mismatches on paper. Believe it or not, the favorites cover those spreads more often that most of us would think.
A popular trend going around is that teams favored by 42.5 points or more have covered that number 14 straight times. At one point, a UCF team that is loaded on offense was favored on Thursday night by 41.5 over New Hampshire - but that line has fallen to 39.5. Utah and seventh-year quarterback Cam Rising now are 40-point favorites vs. Southern Utah. You can get Rutgers at -39 vs. Howard, and Tulsa is -37 vs. Northwestern State.
On the first big night of NCAA football action, Kansas as a 49-point favorite vs. Lindenwood (up from an opening line of -45.5), Arkansas as a -50.5 favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Missouri at -50.5 against Murray State are large enough favorites to bring that huge-spread trend into play. As for the rest of Week 1, Oklahoma is a 42-point favorite vs. Temple Friday, while on Saturday Ole Miss is favored by 42 vs. Furman, Auburn is a 48-point favorite against Alabama A&M, Oregon is favored by 43.5 vs. Idaho, Ohio Sate is favored by 48.5 over Akron and SMU is thought to be 43.5 points better than Houston Christian.
The scary part about betting on teams with spread that large this early in the season is that there literally is zero-percent chance that they are going to lose. Coaches of those teams are going to want to get their best players some quality reps, put the game away early and then give some of the backups a chance. They don't want to risk any unnecessary injuries or put too much on tape for future coaches to scout and are interested in seeing if maybe they have a few gamers on the bench who can contribute down the road as injuries mount and the schedule gets tougher.
The flip side of this is that the bookmakers aren't stupid, and they aren't in the business of giving away money. Teams favored by this many points probably really would be favored by more if we knew that both teams were going to play their best guys for a full 60 minutes. And those younger players and backups are going to be flying around trying to impress anyone and everyone when they get a chance a play. For some players it might be their only real opportunity of the season - at least in the early part of the season - to make an impression in a real game.
The other reality is that even if the favored team runs its most vanilla offense and plays only its base defenses, the sheer difference in talent, size, strength and speed might allow them to cover their number. So, there's always a pretty good chance.
What say you?
Are you willing to take a chance and bet on these favorites? As we mentioned in our earlier college football article, we don't recommend betting the life savings during Week 1 of any season, but throwing a little cash down on some games in hopes of making a little pizza money can add to the entertainment value of the weekend, especially with so many potential blowouts.
How about this fun option?
You can take Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas and UCF tonight at DraftKings for $5 and win $129 if they all cover. Just a little low-risk YOLO bet to liven up your Thursday.
With all the Thursday-night mismatches, most football fans' eyes will be on the Colorado-North Dakota State and North Carolina- Minnesota matchups. The Colorado Coach Prime hype continues as the polarizing Buffaloes get their season underway in prime time, no pun intended. If this game had been played two years ago, absolutely no one would care. This weekend it is the most-bet game on the entire slate.
Let's take a closer look at Thursday's to marquee games:
Colorado -10.5 vs. North Dakota State at 8 p.m. EDT on ESPN
This game opened up with Colorado as a 7.5-point favorite way back in May. It was bet up to over 10, came back down to 9 and in the last few hours has jumped to -10.5 at Circa. You can bet it at between -10 and -11, depending on which book you select. As always, try to get the best price no matter what side you are on. It's been our opinion that at -9 or -9.5 it probably makes sense to take Colorado, but maybe North Dakota is the better choice at +10 or +11. This is just an opinion, not a recommended bet.
The Buffaloes are the most polarizing team in the sport, and it's not close. People either love them or hate them. It seems like most folks in the media hate them, while there are many casual football fans all over the country who ardently support them.
For the most part, neither the media nor the public usually are the best sides to follow when making a bet. The opening number was bet up immediately by respected bettors when it was posted in May and has teetered a bit since then. There seemed to be some sharp buyback when the spread got to 10, but today it has zoomed past the key number of -10 at some books as revelations of potential North Dakota State injuries have come to light.
Here is what we know about Colorado:
The talent on the offensive side of the ball rivals most top teams in the country. They have potential first-round draft picks at QB and WR and three other receivers who could start for most teams.
Their offensive line and defense both have been improved and can't possibly be as bad as they were last year. New defensive coordinator Robert Livingston can only help.
The atmosphere in Boulder will be insane and probably unlike anything North Dakota State ever has seen.
Coach Prime and the Buffs won't take it easy on anyone. They have a chip on their shoulders and a lot to prove.
They should have a size, speed, strength and overall athleticism advantage at every position.
As far as North Dakota State is concerned, the Bison are one of the most successful college football programs of all time, having won 17 national championships and 37 conference championships overall. NDSU has captured nine FCS national titles since 2011 and is the most successful FCS program of all time.
Traditionally the Bison are a well-coached, fundamentally sound team that sends players to the National Football League on a pretty regular basis. Last December, head coach Matt Entz departed to take a coaching job at USC and was replaced by Wyoming offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Tim Polasek, who had been on the NDSU staff from 2006-12 and 2014-16.
Offensively the team should look at least a little different this year, and there will be an adjustment period for the coaches and players - but it will help that Polasek is familiar with the program and its culture. It has been reported that the Bison will be without the services of All-America safety Cole Wisniewski, all-conference fullback/long-snapper Hunter Brozio and possibly starting running back Barika Koeenu.
Minnesota +1.5 vs. North Carolina at 8 p.m. EDT on Fox
The spread on this game has flip-flopped a couple of times, with UNC opening as a 1.5-point favorite in May. Sharp bettors took the Gophers and flipped the line to -2.5 points in their favor almost immediately, but it has moved back toward the Tar Heels during the past week. Carolina was favored by as many as 2.5 points and they still are -2 on Draft Kings. UNC is a 1.5-point favorite pretty much everywhere else.
QB Max Johnson, formerly of LSU and Texas A&M, has come to Chapel Fill and will attempt to fill the formidable shoes of Drake Maye. Omarion Hampton, who rushed for better than 1,500 yards, will help ease that transition for Mack Brown's squad. UNC has a new defensive coordinator in Geoff Collins, who looks to continue the impressive work started by former DC Gene Chizik. Under Chizik, the defense improved considerably last year and should be positioned to be even better this season.
Minnesota always seems to have a physical defense and powerful running game, but the Gophers simply have not gotten any type of consistency from the QB position in recent years. New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer figures to be a solid upgrade at that position, but he's stepping up to a new level of play, so there's likely to be an adjustment period.
This should be a tight game and is a difficult read with no real feel for what the Minnesota offense will look like and how Brosmer will adjust to a new level of play. Sometimes early sharp line movement can help us figure out where the real advantage lies, and now that the line has come back toward Minnesota, that could mean something.
UNC will have plenty of talent and depth at the skill positions, and they have a proven signal-caller, which seems to provide an advantage at this early juncture. This one is your call, but we would favor the Tar Heels. Maybe a money-line bet on UNC?
It's Week 1, so bet at your own risk!
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