We've mentioned this before, but it's always worth repeating.
Our model needs 3-4 weeks of new and current data before we feel that the information it provides is meaningful and before we are comfortable recommending picks that it might advocate. Once we have reached that minimum threshold, the information it produces - and the picks that we recommend - should get more accurate each week as the season progresses.
So, we won't have any college football bets for at least a couple more weeks, and our first recommended NFL selections likely will come the first week of October. But that doesn't mean we aren't constantly analyzing games, data and other factors that could provide an edge and indicate which teams are most likely to win games or cover point spreads.
As we wrote in the space a week ago, we don't recommend risking large sums of money on football bets early in the season, but we realize that for many of our customers and followers a little pizza money on a game or two can make the weekend more exciting. There's nothing wrong with spending a few bucks on an enhanced entertainment experience as long as you always wager within your means and don't go around chasing bets all weekend if you lose one or two.
Chalk it up as an entertainment expense and move on to the next week. The more you chase, the bigger hole you are likely to dig. Always bet responsibly. Be patient and disciplined and wait for our real recommended picks before diving into the deep end. Winning is more fun, and our top selections have won for nearly two decades.
This time of year when college and pro football lines come out, there always are a few that seem off and catch our eye. We monitor the initial market and how lines move immediately after numbers are released to see if the market concurs with our analysis. Then we monitor the market the rest of the week and compare that to the information we have access to. The result is a list of games that we are interested in and will track right up until kickoff.
Things can change rapidly in college sports with the lack of injury reporting and all the aspects of student-athletes' lives that can influence their academic eligibility, status on the team, health and preparation. It's important to always seek information that can provide an edge.
As always, bet at your own risk!
The games in which we thought one side had an edge against the spread last week had a
14-7 record in Week 1.
Here is that list for Week 2 of the 2024 NCAA football season:
CFB Week 2 Games with an Edge
BYU +12.5 at SMU
Northwestern -1.5 vs. Duke
Washington State pick vs. Texas Tech and over 66
Oregon -19.5 vs. Boise State
Iowa -2.5 vs. Iowa State and over 35
Tennessee -8..5 at NC State
Arkansas +10 at Oklahoma State
Syracuse +3 vs. Georgia Tech
Oklahoma -27.5 vs. Houston and over 55.5
Kentucky -8 vs. South Carolina
Maryland -8.5 vs. Michigan State
Nebraska -6.5 vs. Colorado and over 55.5
Air Force -3.5 vs. San Jose State
Kansas Stae -8.5 at Tulane Auburn -11.5 vs. Cal
Virginia +1/pick vs. Wake Forest
New Mexico State at Liberty over 54
Comments