By Scott L. - SL Sports Saff
Life comes at us fast.
From the time that the Super Bowl ends until September it seems like the National Football League season never will get here. Over the years, we've made up ways to pass the time, whether it's dynasty drafts, mock drafts or spending an inordinate amount of time dissecting the rookie class that will be coming out of college in April.
We listen to podcasts and tune into fantasy sports shows in hopes of hearing something new and getting an edge on the competition going into draft season. Narratives are invented, shot down and rerun over and over. By June it seems like the season is still lightyears away.
Then, in September if finally starts, and just like that we snap our fingers and a quarter of the season is done and the first bye week is here. That's where we are. Already.
A lot of people freak out when the first bye week arrives, but if we drafted well and have done our due diligence on the waiver wire each week, there should be nothing to fear. With injuries to players such as Jonathan Taylor, Zamir White, all the Rams top receivers and Devin Singletary, if we were thin in the backfield or at receiver and have been paying attention, there's a good chance we can just plug in Trey Sermon, Alexander Mattison, Antonio Gibson or Tyrone Tracy.
Simply by paying attention each week we can go from having a reserve roster clogger taking up space on the bench to having a starting RB2 or Flex. Often those types of players won't be world-beaters, but if they can get us 50-60 total yards, a few receptions and fall into the end zone, that may be enough to push us over the top. And sometimes they blow it out of the water and turn into everyday players who can lead a fantasy team to a championship.
Say hello to Jordan Mason, who appears to be on track for yet another big week for the 49ers in the absence of Christian McCaffrey.
In some cases, especially if we've drafted well, byes can bring welcome relief from the difficult starting-lineup decisions we are faced with every week. We know who is and who isn't available, and it often is obvious who should be in our lineups. For those who are freaked out because they were relying only on a strong group of starters, let this be an early-season lesson. Spending time scouring the waiver wire each week and trying to look two, three or four weeks down the road can help you steal a win on a heavy bye week and maybe help spur a deep playoff run.
No weeks off. It's a process, and those who put in the time every week will succeed. Period.
Look at all the injuries that top players have suffered already. That's not going away. The NFL season is a survival of the fittest, and fantasy is no different. More injuries to elite players are right around the corner unfortunately.
Bye weeks don't alter much for DFS players.
As always, we simply play the hand we are dealt and use the players who are available. Where it gets tricky for DFS players is trying to determine which of the plug-and-play backups who are starting might provide the best value and perform the best in their new roles. We are always searching for those bargain players for the Flex or WR3 slots who have low salaries and might produce big days. Finding one or two of those hidden gems allows us to stack the rest of our lineup with top-tier elite players.
Remember that everyone else is looking for those same players, however, and that many of those folks aren't putting the time into this that we are. They are going to draft the obvious player or players - can you say Trey Sermon? - and then stack all the well-known top players around him. Everyone knows the Ja'Marr Chase, Cee Dee Lamb and Derrick Henry, and Captain Obvious will try to put as many of those types of guys as possible into lineups with Sermon. While that's not a bad strategy for the casual DFS player - and it's okay to do that with a lineup or two to be in the mix if they all have good games - the only way to win big in DFS is to find the lesser-owned, under-the-radar players or the elite players very few people want to pay up for.
The savvy and diligent DFS player should realize that Sermon has yet to be more than a hardly used backup at his three NFL stops. That's not because he's really good. So, a little deeper dive into the Colts shows that Michael Pittman was a top receiver last year once he got to play with a quarterback who was comfortable in the pocket and would let plays develop.
Pittman had a big game last week when Anthony Richardson's injury forced Joe Flacco into the game. Josh Downs also played well. Sermon is not anywhere near the talent that Taylor is, so maybe, assuming that Richardson doesn't play this week, the loss of Taylor might open things up even more for those wideouts. Maybe that's who we want to get into our lineups and not Sermon. Both Pittman and downs, at $6,100 and $5900, respectively, are value priced.
Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary are out for the Giants this week, and Tracy presumably moves into the starting lineup. While that offense and Daniel Jones have performed better than expected through four weeks, we can't just assume that Wan'Dale Robinson, a bargain receiver so far this year who has played well, is just going to step in and get all the volume that Nabers was seeing.
He will draw the tougher coverage now as a marked man. Maybe that opens things up for Tracy, who likely will see the ball a ton as the Giants try to control the ball and keep Seattle's explosive offense off the field? Tracy may not produce a high average per carry, but if he gets 16 to 20 touches like Singletary has thus far, he will surpass his $4,800 value. And if he finds the end zone once he could lead us to the promised land.
That said, if the Giants fall way behind and face a large deficit all day, Tracy's success will become dependent on the passing game. Anyone who envisions that type of game script probably should avoid the Giants altogether.
Antonio Gibson gets the surprise start over Rhamondre Stevenson in New England. Is this a legitimate full-time role swap, or are the Patriots sending a message to Stevenson about his fumbling by just taking the title of starter away for a game? It's hard to tell, especially since Gibson fell out of favor in Washington for failing to protect the ball.
Gibson, Sermon and Tracy certainly are all fine for full-season lineups on a bye week for anyone who is in a bind. And for those DFS players who enter multiple lineups, they are worth a shot in at least one contest but should not be considered "core" players for every lineup.
Anyone who has counted on Cam Akers the last few weeks can attest to that. And after watching the Dolphins last Monday, it's safe to assume that Tyler Huntley is not an automatic plug-and-play option at QB either.
Alexander Mattison, on the other hand, was putting up serviceable numbers as White's backup for Las Vegas, and he's a player worth considering for sure. If his touches more than double to between 16 and 20 and he's already averaging almost 10 points per game, at $5,800 he screams value.
The depleted Rams' receiving corps is worth a close look, too, at bargain prices in a pretty attractive matchup against a below-average Packers pass defense. Tutu Atwell's targets keep increasing each week, and he's proven to have big-play capability in previous auditions. He seems like a great WR3 or Flex at $5,600.
And since the FanDuel main slate that we base our pricing on includes the Sunday night game, Pittsburgh's Justin Fields largely has been ignored by DFS and fantasy players this year, but he's still a prime dual threat who has gotten better each week. Fields will be playing against a depleted and reeling Dallas defense and checks in at a salary of $7,600, well below other top dual-threat QBs such as Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels.
This week's recommended DFS lineup picks based on the FanDuel Sunday main slate:
Top Dual Threat QB Core Value Option
Justin Fields - $7,600
Pay-up Dual Threat QB Options
Lamar Jackson - $8,800
Jayden Daniels - $8,700
Top QB Opitions
Brock Purdy - $7,700
Jordan Love - $8,200
Value QB Options
Trevor Lawrence - $7,000
Geno Smith - $7,400
Caleb Williams - $7,200
Super Value QB Options
Joe Flacco - $6,800
Matthew Stafford - $6,700
Totally UTR Super-Value Million Dollar QB
Tyler Huntley - $6,800
Pay-up RB Options
Derrick Henry - $9,200
Jordan Mason - $8,700
Pay-up RB Core Option
Kyren Williams - $8,400
Value RB1 Options
D'Andre Swift - $6,400
Chuba Hubbard - $6,800
Jerome Ford - $6,300
Josh Jacobs - $7,000
Brian Robinson - $7,700
Kenneth Walker - $7,400
Najee Harris - $6,500
Value Flex RB Core Option
Alexander Mattison - $5,800
Value Flex RB Options
Austin Ekeler - $6,000
Trey Sermon - $5,900
Javante Willias - $5,900
Antonio Gibson - $5,400
Super Value Flex RB Option
Tyrone Tracy - $4,800
Pay-up WR Options
Nico Collins - $8,800
Tyreek Hill - $8,600
Value Core Pay-up WR Option
DK Metcalf - $8,200
Value WR1 Options
Stefon Diggs - $7,600
Jaylen Reed - $7,200
Diontae Johnson - $7,100
Value Core WR2 Option
Michael Pittman - $6,100
Value WR2 Options
Amari Cooper - $6,200
DJ Moore - $6,400
Terry McLaurin - $6,600
Christian Kirk - $6,100
Brandon Aiyuk - $6,700
George Pickens - $6,000
Zay Flowers - $6,900
Brian Thomas Jr. - $6,300
Value Flex WR Options
Josh Downs - $6,000
Dontayvion Wicks - $5,900
Jerry Jeudy - $5,900
Super Value WR Core Option
Courtland Sutton $5,700
Super Value WR Options
Tre Tucker - $5,800
Keenan Allen - $5,800
Tutu Atwell - $5,600
Demarcus Robinson - $5,500
Alec Pierce - $5,400
Pay-up TE Options
George Kittle - $7,000
Value TE Options
Dalton Kincaid - $6,100
Jake Ferguson - $6,200
Super Value TE Options
Tucker Kraft - $5,300
Pat Freiermuth - $5,200
Colby Parkinson - $5,100
Zach Ertz - $5,000
David Njoku - $5,500
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