By Scott L. - SL Sports Taff
It's easy to follow the crowd and do what everyone else does. Many of us put hours into our full-season NFL fantasy and DFS research to ensure that we are making the best-possible decisions each week with our lineups.
And while there are some people and sources in the industry who earn our trust with their consistently solid advice, how many times do we wake up on Monday or Tuesday and curse the advice that we got or get mad because we played the guys "everyone" said to play and they went bust? The truth is that if you put in the time each week and do your homework - and watch a lot of football - you probably are just as qualified to make lineup decisions for yourself as many of the people who are getting paid to tell you want to do.
Remember that the majority of fantasy managers are not putting in the time that you are, and those people are relying solely on what they read and hear from a few "experts." So, if you are doing only what those guys tell you to do, there's a pretty good chance that you can be reasonably successful but also likely are holding yourself back.
It's possible to win a week or a few bucks here and there or to make the playoffs by following the crowd and doing what the majority of analysts say, but it's just not the formula for winning big. At some point you've got to go against the grain and separate yourselves from the others to really be successful.
This week is a great case in point.
We are heading into Week 4 of the National Football League season, and all the smart folks out will pretend that they have access to some fancy analytical information that none of us are privy to. Those people need to justify their existence and paychecks - remember they get paid win or lose as long as they generate clicks or engagement - so of course they are going to throw around a bunch of fancy numbers and analytics to wow us and get us to buy into whatever they are selling. Or just to literally get us to buy something.
As with anything involved in the fantasy and sports gambling space, do your homework before accepting what people are telling you and before paying for anything. Check their results over weeks, months and years before you just do what they say or pay them. In the meantime, if you are spending hours each week and start to develop your own gut feelings and impulses, don't be afraid to follow them. Who knows, maybe you should be a fantasy analyst.
As we dug into Week 4 fantasy and DFS options, we noticed a couple of things. Almost everyone is telling us that Najee Harris is a "must play" and Garrett Wilson is a "must sit." The guys who for three weeks were telling us to only play our studs are now advising us to not play one of the best receivers in the game, a guy who happens to play with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. And those two are developing more chemistry every week.
I get it. He's up against the vaunted Patrick Surtain, superstar shutdown cornerback. Surtain has only been targeted 13 times in the first three weeks, and these are the results:
Week 1: DK Metcalf - 3 rec, 29 yards
Week 2: George Pickens - 2 rec, 29 yards
Week 3: Mike Evans - 2 rec , 17 yards
That's great, but with all due respect, the quarterbacks in those games were Geno Smith, Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield. None of those guys is going to end up in Canton. Wilson has been targeted 26 times in his three outings, hauling in 15 catches for 150 yards. And while many seem to consider that disappointing, he and Rodgers are still developing chemistry and that still has him on pace for 85 receptions and 850 yards.
Rodgers enjoys pumping his receivers' tires; he takes care of his guys and relishes a challenge. Love him or hate him, there's no smarter QB in the league and he still has the ability to fire the ball into any type of window. He also knows that they need a productive and happy Wilson to win and to achieve their goals this year. It's naive to think that Rodgers won't find ways to get his top playmaker the ball this week, and he still has a gunslinger's ego. No way he backs down to Surtain.
So, this week we will go against conventional wisdom and play Wilson. He's on our Guillotine roster, and with all the talk about benching him this week, we briefly considered playing Jordan Addison over Wilson. While it is possible that Addison could come out of nowhere and go off in his first appearance of the year, is that a higher probability than one of the most talented players in the sport having a great day? Are we ready to trust Sam Darnold over Aaron Rodgers? Short answer: no.
Najee Harris is in the opposite situation. EVERYONE is saying that we need to have him in our lineups. The Najee hype train has been chugging down the tracks for several years, and this is the first year that he made our Do Not Draft List. Harris is what he is. He's a high-volume back in an offense that is going to run the ball and slow the game down come Hell or high water. He also is one of the all-time great underachievers. People will sell you on Harris being a legit RB2 in fantasy. He is, but only if you drafted terribly. If you drafted well, he should be a Flex option and not a lock to be in your lineup every week.
Over the years, the more Harris has been hyped, the more he's underachieved. He's an easy target for analysts to upgrade this week because Jaylen Warren, the player he shares touches with, appears to be out. Harris has averaged between 18 and 20 carries thus far and between two and five targets. He's averaging 3.8 yards per carry with no touchdowns. Although he is the "goal-line back," Harris plays with a running QB in Justin Fields, so it's 50/50 at best whether he will get the ball in any goal-line situation. He should see a few more targets today, which will help his fantasy projection,
Although he dominates backfield touches for Pittsburgh, Harris has yet to eclipse the 70-yard rushing mark this season. Combined with his targets, he is a consistent 7-10 point player who can surpass the 10-point mark if he falls into the end zone. Harris also left the stadium with his arm in a sling last week, so what are the odds that his touches increase this week? The Steelers can't afford to have both of their running backs missing time because of injuries this early in the season.
He's fine to use as a Flex if he's on your full-season roster, but at $6,600 on FanDuel for DFS we are going to take a pass and look at similarly priced players who are volume backs with upside such as Chuba Hubbard, Jerome Ford, Zack Moss and JK Dobbins as well as lower-priced options such as Cam Akers, Carson Steele and Roschon Johnson.
Now, here is our list of top DFS plays for Week 4 of the NFL season. These selections are based on pricing for the FanDuel Sunday main slate but are transferrable across most platforms. Keep in mind that the Sunday main slate now includes the Sunday night game, so it's important to try to have at least one player in that game to maintain late roster flexibility based on your contest's standings:
Top Dual Threat QB Core Pay-up Option
Kyler Murray - $8,700
Value Dual Threat QB Core Option
Jayden Daniels -0 $8,200
Top Overall Value QB
CJ Stroud - $7,800
Value QB Options
Baker Mayfield - $7,400
Caleb Williams - $7,100
Andy Dalton - $7,000
Super Value QB Options
Trevor Lawrence - $6,900
Justin Fields - $6,800
Pay-up Core RB Option
Saquon Barkley - $9,700
Pay-up RB Options
Jonathan Taylor - $8,200
Bijan Robinson - $8,300
Jordan Mason - $8,800
Top Value Core RB Option
Breece Hall - $8,000
Value RB Options
James Conner - $7,500
Brian Robinson, Jr. - $7,300
JK Dobbins - $7,000
Zack Moss - $6,900
Value Flex RB Options
Roschon Johnson - $5,600
Chuba Hubbard - $6,500
Jerome Ford - $6,400
Cam Akers - $6,100
Carson Steele - $5,800
Chase Brown - $5,600
Pay-up WR Options
Rashee Rice - $8,500
Justin Jefferson - $9,400
Ja'Marr Chase - $9,200
Marvin Harrison Jr. - $8,200
Mike Evans - $8,000
Value Core WR Option
Nico Collins- $7,700
Value WR Options
DJ Moore - $6,500
Chris Godwin - $7,300
Terry McLaurin - $6,500
Garrett Wilson - $7,800
Stefon Diggs - $7,100
Jauan Jennings - $6,800
Brandon Aiyuk - $7,600
Value Flex WR Options
Rome Odunze - $6,400
Jayden Reed - $6,200
George Pickens - $6,100
Diontae Johnson - $6,200
Super Value WR Options
Christian Kirk - $5,600
Brian Thomas Jr. - $5,800
Darnell Mooney - $5,700
Tutu Atwell - $5,800
Jordan Addison - $5,800
Josh Downs - $5,500
Jakobi Meyers - $5,400
Mike Wilson - $5,300
Parris Campbell - $5,100
Greg Dortch - $5,000
Luke McCaffrey - $4,900
Pay-up TEs
Dallas Goedert - $7,500
Travis Kelce - $7,100
George Kittle - $7,100
Value TEs
Brock Bowers - $6,500
Kyle Pitts - $5,900
Super Value TEs
Pat Freiermuth - $5,000
Cole Kmet - $5,300
Brenton Strante - $5,200
Colby Parkinson - $5,200
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