How many times do you put in hours of work to research your full-season NFL fantasy and DFS options only to reach a crossroads where you can't decide between two players on the same team?
Most times, in full-season fantasy we don't have two players from the same offense on our rosters - somehow we ended up with Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely on one team this year - but it does happen. And even if it doesn't, the dilemma still rears its head when an NFL team has a WR1A and WR1B in its lineup. Consider Tampa Bay, which has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on its roster. In any given week, one of them might perform like a top-10 wide receiver, split all the available points with the other guy or disappear because of a tough matchup while the other player flourishes. Even if you have one of these players it's still important to figure out if one of them should sit because it's the other player's week to shine.
This happens every week to all of us who play DFS, because we have access to every player in the league. For many, the decision often comes down to dollars; we pick the cheaper player so we can pay up for other guys. In a contest that rewards the highest point totals, just like in life, cheaper often isn't better. You get what you pay for.
For DFS, if you are capable of playing multiple lineups and both players are expected to have pretty good weeks because the overall team matchup is good, the solution might be simple enough as putting each of them in different lineups. Sometimes the matchup for one player looks so good or even so bad that the solution seems obvious and we only play the guy with the obvious best matchup. With so many players to choose from in DFS, this strategy may work out fine depending on which other players you select, but is it the optimal approach? Today, Mike Evans faces his arch-nemesis in cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore largely has shut down Evans over the years to the point that the usually mild-mannered receiver has become incredibly frustrated and received unsportsmanlike conduct penalties when facing the Saints. There is a long history there that can't and shouldn't be avoided, but there's also a longer history of Evans being a touchdown-scoring, 1,000-yard-receiving machine who is going to be handed a gold jacket one day.
Should we ignore that?
In full season, except in dire circumstances, we always play our high-volume studs. Players who play at Evans' level for as long as he has don't succeed by accident. While they may have gifts that other players don't possess, they also have a competitive steak and work ethic that surpass the vast majority of players in the league. We can be assured that Evans is going to do everything in his power to change the narrative today, and we know that when a player like Evans is driven to prove something the results can be eye popping. Even in his media sessions this week he has spoken of his determination to play better and keep his head against Lattimore this week.
That narrative has been posted and discussed all over social and digital media this week. Even casual fantasy and DFS players are aware of it, and many - if not most - of those folks will avoid him. So, while he's an every-week start in full-season fantasy, he also is worth a look in a DFS lineup or two. No matter how bad his targets and receptions are, there always is a chance that he will make a spectacular catch or two in the end zone. After all, he's done that about 100 times in his career.
Even on a week in which Godwin appears to be the clear-cut better option, if we are interested in winning some big money it might literally pay to sneak Evans into a lineup or two. And if for some reason we have both players on the same team in full-season fantasy, it's definitely smart to play only the guy with the better matchup since the goal is to maximize our scoring potential.
Godwin probably should be the choice in those instances and for the casual DFS player who might only be fielding one or two lineups. But if he is projected to have a really strong game, who is to say Tampa Bay won't come up with something schematically that allows Evans to take advantage of factors that favor Godwin? What if the script flips and somehow Evans gets the touches Godwin is projected to receive?
Evans is good enough to be worth considering as a contrarian option at least once this week. If somehow he has a breakthrough and puts up one of his multiple-TD, 100-yard games, that can lead to a very nice payday.
This approach to using multiple players from the same offense can be taken one step farther as we attempt to find players who exceed the value of their salaries in terms of production. We hear "expert analysts" talk about "lineup stacks" all the time. A lineup stack can be a viable strategy in a game that has a high projected point total and when one team has a weak overall passing defense.
Stacking isn't as simple as playing the best players from one team's offense, however. It's not advised to put two guys who play the same position in the same lineup. A solid stack this week might be Dak Prescott at QB, Cee Dee Lamb at WR and Jake Ferguson at TE for example. Most winning stacks also avoid having a QB, RB and WR or TE in the same lineup, too, because in theory if a running back is going to have a big game that may limit the passing and receiving numbers.
Another stack option is to include an opposing RB or WR as part of the approach in a game with a lot of projected points from which we are stacking two or three players from the opposite team. If a lot of points are probably going to be scored and one team is likely to be slinging the ball around the yard, the opposing team may attempt to slow down the game with a high-volume running attack. Or maybe that team just has a strong running offense and is facing a weaker run defense, so that in combination with the high projected-points total makes this a great strategy. And if the game script indicates that one team may be ahead by a wide margin with the other team playing catchup - or that there could be a ton of points by both teams through the air - adding an opposing WR to the mix probably makes sense.
Stacking isn't as easy as just picking the top or most-expensive - or even the highest-rated - players from one offense. Of course, based on today's projections, a stack of Dak, Cee Dee and Ferguson is definitely worth a shot, but when making decisions about which players to choose for your lineup, here is another option to consider.
Earlier we discussed the option of playing two receivers from the same team in different lineups when both are WR1-level players. Well, another option when it comes to stacking or creating any type of lineup is to find the top players with the absolute best matchups in games with medium or high point projections and pivot off of them to that team's WR2 or even a WR3.
Looking at the Cowboys again this week, many analysts have Cee Dee Lamb listed at the top of their WR projections in their game against Detroit. Lamb is the second-highest-priced receiver on the board in the FanDuel main slate at $9,300, so to add him to a lineup we need to pay down at other positions. While putting Lamb in some lineups with Dak certainly make sense - and with Ferguson projected to perform as a top tight end this week at a much lower price - looking at Jalen Tolbert at $6,100 or KaVonte Turpin at $5,100 allows us to take advantage of the Dallas offensive matchup while still being able to pay up at other positions.
Having Dak in the lineup in theory gets us at least half of any points Lamb puts up while still reaping the benefits if lower-priced players exceed their value and allowing us to possibly pay for Ja'Marr Chase, the highest-priced receiver, or another similar WR1-type player.
There is a similar situation with the Atlanta Falcons this week as Kirk Cousins and Drake London have very favorable matchups along with tight end Kyle Pitts. A pivot to Mooney for $6,500 at WR instead of London at $7,400 allows us to put an additional $900 into other players. Or you can take a look at Ray Ray McLoud at $5,600. It doesn't sound like much, but that $900 or $1,800 can be a real game-changer. That said, London, who seems to have found hs connection with Cousins, is a very good value at his price point.
Other consensus top wideouts for Week 6 and their potential pivots include:
Terry McLaurin - Noah Brown
Ja'Marr Chase - Tee Higgins - Andrei Iosivas
DJ Moore - Rome Odunze - Keenan Allen
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Jameson Williams
Diontae Johnson - Xavier Legette
Jayden Reed - Dontayvion Wicks - Romeo Doubs
Week 6 Pay-up Quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels
Lamar Jackson
Pay-up Value Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts
Jordan Love
Dak Prescott
Joe Burrow
Top Value Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins
Caleb Williams
Super Value Quarterback
Will Levis
Pay-up Running Backs
Derrick Henry
Alvin Kamara
Bijan Robinson
Saquon Barkley
Value RB1
Jahmyr Gibbs
David Montgomery
Top-Value Volume Running Backs
Bucky Irving
Tony Pollard
JK Dobbins
Rico Dowdle
Najee Harris
Super Value Running Backs/Flex Options
Austin Ekeler
Tyrone Tracy
Tyjae Spears
Bucky Irving
Alexander Mattison
Dare Ogunbowale
Chase Brown
Jeremy McNichols
Jaylen Warren
Pay-up Wide Receivers
Cee Dee Lamb
Ja'Marr Chase
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Value Core Wide Receivers
Drake London
Jayden Reed
Value Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin
Tee Higgins
Zay Flowers
Chris Olave
Tank Dell
Super Value Core Wide Receiver
Terry McLaurin
Value WR3/Flex Options
Darnell Mooney
Rashid Shaheed
Wan'Dale Robinson
Jameson Williams
Jalen Tolbert
Dontayvion Wicks
Calvin Ridley
Super Value Wide Receivers/Flex Options
Xavier Legette
Darius Slayton
Romeo Doubs
Cortland Sutton
Ray Ray McLoud
Rashod Bateman
Andrew Iosivas
KaVontae Turpin
Adonai Mitchell
Pay-up Tight Ends
Trey McBride
Brock Bowers
Sam LaPorta
Core Tight End
Jake Ferguson
Value TIght Ends
Tucker Kraft
Kyle Pitts
Super Value Tight Ends
Ja'Tavion Sanders
Zach Ertz
Theo Johnson
Chig Okonkwo
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