Obviously, as the National Football League season hits its stride with a full slate of games Sunday, there are many unknowns. That's always the case for the NFL's opening weekend, and that's part of what makes it so exciting.
That's also what makes it so challenging to build a strong DFS lineup. There are rookies trying to crack lineups, new coaches and coordinators, free agents playing for new teams and staff members trying to fix whatever went wrong last year.
With that in mind, the key to building a successful Week 1 NFL DFS lineup, first and foremost, is isolating the knowns. Who are the top players returning who basically are unchallenged in terms of being their team's top dog at a specific position? We are looking for guaranteed volume and a high floor. Preferably, that floor also comes with some upside.
From there we want to match up the known quantities with the games the bookmakers project to be the highest-scoring affairs. This week those matchups are:
Miami vs. Jacksonville
Houston vs. Indianapolis
Buffalo vs. Arizona
Chicago vs. Tennessee
High-volume, high floor players with upside playing in games with the highest-projected point totals are ideal candidates for your Week 1 lineup.
Once you figure who those guys are, the next step is to determine which ones have the best matchups. In Week 1, because of coaching and personnel changes, this is an inexact science, too, as every bad defensive team is looking to improve upon last season's performance. The best you can do is figure out which teams either have done nothing to do improve and or that have tried to improve, but possibly failed on paper. Unfortunately, no football game has ever been played or decided "on paper."
Despite that uncertainty, the process seems pretty easy, right?
Well, many other people are looking for the same things. Isolating those players and filling your lineups with them from top to bottom is a great strategy in tournament games and contests with smaller numbers of players and lineups.
For the big-money, larger tournament contests it's important to build around a core of those types of players with guys who may bring a certain level of uncertainty to the table but also have a high upside. These include rookies, free agents who have switched teams to fill a need and are penciled into a larger role, proven veterans who may have had a down year and players who were buried under previous coaching regimes but have worked their way up the depth chart after a coaching change.
Again, this is not an exact science, and unfortunately the way that teams approach preseason these days there is very little information to gather from how players performed in exhibitions. Checking each team's actual depth charts and combining that info with media reports is the best way to determine which players might have high upside and be ready to surprise us. Part of this exercise, of course, also includes searching for the best matchups "on paper."
The bottom line is that to win big money in the larger tournaments you'll have to determine the players who are slightly or majorly undervalued, are likely to have lower ownership and have the highest probability blowing past their lower floors.
Not so easy.
Just throwing one lineup into the mix basically is like playing the lottery, so while you don't have to produce 100 or 500 lineups like those MIT algorithm dudes (that's who your up against), the process definitely requires putting together a few different lineups in hopes of coming up with a winning mix. In doing this it is imperative to find middle-tier and bargain-priced value players to combine with the top-tier studs who are more of a sure thing.
One approach to finding players with hidden value is to look at the teams that have very good matchups but also may have several options to choose from for a DFS lineup. For years, this has been the Godwin-Evans and Metcalf-Lockett dilemma. Or the McVay-Reid conundrum. You just never know which player will get the targets or touches and put up the type of numbers that can win you cash from week to week.
In these cases if those players have great matchups, it's safe to assume that one of them will have a great day. So, it's a good idea to consider placing each one them in a separate lineup.
This week's examples of potentially using this conundrum to our advantage would be the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans.
On paper, the Bills wide receivers have the best matchup against a perceived-to-be very average Arizona defense. Josh Allen also is a top-rated play this week. Buffalo has moved on from its No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs, who ironically has gone to Houston, creating a similar dilemma there.
That leaves us with three potential value, huge-upside, cash-winning plays at wide receiver in newcomer Keon Coleman, wily and versatile veteran Curtis Samuel and the explosive Khalil Shakir. What to do? The recommendation is to get each of them into a lineup stacked with Allen along with Dalton Kincaid at tight end. This stack has a great floor thanks to Kincaid's volume and potential red-zone opportunities. At least one of those other players figures to have a game that far exceeds his DFS value.
Poof, just like that you've filled three positions and should have a great core to build around to make some money even if one of the wideouts just has an average game.,
In Houston we've got Nico Collins, Diggs and Tank Dell, probably the best top-three in the NFL. The matchup for them and quarterback CJ Stroud is a pretty good one vs. the Colts. It also comes with a projected high point total.
Collins clearly established himself as the go-to receiver in Houston last year, while Dell was the high-upside guy before getting injured. Diggs has been elite for years, but isn't getting any younger. It remains to be seen what his role will be, and how he will respond physically and emotionally to that.
Using each of them in a different lineup seems to be a solid approach this week as all of them have a pretty high floor and good upside. One of them likely will put up 20 or more points, but all three could eclipse the 15-point mark. Diggs and Dell have better "value," and may be more likely to exceed their worth, while Collins has a high probability of at least equaling his value.
It is not imperative to stack them with Stroud, but that is a fine strategy if you want to go in that direction.
Hopefully that plan helps you get started.
Now, here is a full list of players to consider for your Week 1 NFL DFS lineups:
Tier 1 Quarterbacks
Josh Allen
Anthony Richardson
Tier 2 Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa
Value Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield
Geno Smith
Caleb Wiliams
Derek Carr
Jayden Daniels
Tier 1 Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor
Bijan Robinson
Tier 2 Running Backs
De'Von Achane
Joe Mixon
James Cook
Aaron Jones
Kenneth Walker
Alvin Kamara
JUSTIN FIELDS - JUST ADDED!
Volume Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson
Rachaad White
Jerome Ford
Tier 1 Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill
Justin Jefferson
Davante Adams
Tier 2 Wide Receivers
Nico Collins
Mike Evans
Jaylen Waddle
Tier 3 Receivers
Chris Godwin
Terry McLaurin
Christian Kirk
Tank Dell
Stefon Diggs
Amari Cooper
Keon Coleman
Volume Receiver
Jakobi Meyers
Value Receivers
Demario Douglas
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Adonai Mitchell
Luke McCaffrey
Darnell Mooney
Jayden Polk
Rome Odunze
Brian Thomas Jr.
Jonathan Mingo
Jordan Addison
Khalil Shakir
Curis Samuel
Wan'Dale Robinson
Volume Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid
Evan Engram
Trey McBride
Value Tight Ends
Zach Ertz
Hunter Henry
Jonnu Smith
Taysom Hill
Comments