This is an interesting time of year to bet on Major League Baseball.
You really have about 15 teams that legitimately are playing for something, while the remaining 17 are playing out the string. There is a ton of pressure on teams clinging to wildcard spots and those who are in danger of falling out of the races altogether.
These next few weeks can lead to a championship run for some teams or lost jobs for players and managers. And many of the teams that are out of the running are giving younger prospects an opportunity to show what they can do at the big-league level. In that mix of young players there are going to be some super-talented players who light it up right away, some top prospects who need time to adjust and some players who are just way out of their league.
That makes handicapping challenging.
A case in point is tonight's game between the Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins.
The Angels have been out of the postseason race for months. Their best player has been injured all year, they traded away some quality veterans at the deadline and they are trying to figure out if they have any young players ready to step into contributing roles next season.
Minnesota has been struggling and is fighting for its playoff life. The Twins have won just two of their last eight games, and after a recent four-game losing streak they held a behind-closed-doors team meeting. Despite the recent difficulties, Minnesota is clinging to the final American League wildcard spot, 3.0 games ahead of Detroit. The Twins responded to their team meeting by routing the Angels, 10-5, Tuesday night.
Every game is incredibly important for Minnesota, and our model puts a lot of stock in that this time of year. The Twins clearly are the better team as they are 17 games ahead of Los Angeles in the standings. Even though Minnesota has been struggling and is sending a young, unproven pitcher to the mound for this matchup, the bookmakers seem to know something as they have made the Twins a -210 favorite against another very young and inexperienced pitcher.
That number implies a win probability of 68 percent. Our model gets good vibes from Minnesota in this one as well and gives the Twins a 63-percent chance of even covering the -1.5 run line.
Big game. Better Team. High win probability. It's a no-brainer bet then, right? Not so fast.
Minnesota's explosion last night gives us a little pause. How will their bats respond tonight after scoring all those runs? They are the better team in all facets, so that's not a big deterrent.
What does raise a major red flag, though, is the uncertainty of the pitching matchup. Twins starter Zebby Matthews has not been good. He made his MLB debut Aug. 13 vs. Kansas City and was solid, allowing 2 earned runs on 5 hits while striking out 5 in 5.0 innings. Since then, however, he has surrendered 16 earned runs on 27 hits in 17.0 innings.
That equates to an 8.47 ERA. He turned in a couple serviceable outings during that stretch in which he allowed 2 and 1 earned runs, but has given up 13 earned runs in 7.0 innings the last two times he has pitched. You just don't know what you're getting with him.
Meanwhile, his opponent Jack Kochanowicz is an imposing figure on the hill who stands 6 foot 7, but he doesn't strike out a lot of hitters. He only has 12 punch outs in 38.2 innings pitched this season while posting a 4.89 ERA in his first seven big-league starts. But Kochanowicz has settled down of late, allowing 10 earned runs in his last 25.2 innings (2.99 ERA).
Between the volatility Matthews has shown and the improvement of Kochanowicz, there is just too much uncertainty for us to recommend the Twins as an All-Star Pick at -1.5 or on the money line at -210. Even though the Twins are the better team and the model has them at a 63-percent win percentage, the matchup simply doesn't meet the requirements to be one of our recommended selections. Our mission is to only recommend the picks the safest picks, and this one does not qualify.
But we do have one All-Star Pick for you tonight:
Houston Astros -1.5 (-115) vs. Oakland Athletics (69% win probability) at 8:10 p.m. EDT
We had the Astros last night, and it should have been a winner.
When providing our best picks, it's always impossible for us or our algorithm to know when a coach or managers is going to cost a team with terrible decision-making. That's exactly what happened to Houston last night. Bad managing and officiating are aspects of sports that can't ever be predicted.
Manager Joe Espada had two opportunities to move runners over in extra innings with the game tied and his team batting last. He refused. No bunts, and the players he trusted to get the job done didn't. Oakland laid down two bunts in the 12th inning and scored twice to win the game.
As the superior team that is heavily favored and still playing to win, it's natural to expect an Astros bounce-back effort tonight. Our model gives them a 69-percent win probability, and they have covered the -1.5 spread in four-straight victories and 10 of their past 12. Houston is 4.5 games in front of Seattle in the AL West race, and 3.5 games ahead of Detroit, which is the first team out of the last wildcard spot.
The Astros need to keep winning. Oakland has not been a serious contender for the postseason since May. Houston has had an up-and-down season, combining impressive hot streaks with baffling stretches of bad baseball. They have had to overcome serious injuries to key players and are starting to get healthy as the postseason approaches. And they have one of the deepest bullpens in baseball.
While the Astros are just 3-5 in their last 8 games, along with the strong back-end pitching they have a red-hot starter in Hunter Brown. And Brown is on the mound tonight against Joey Estes.
After a horrible start to the season, there has been no inconsistency in Brown's game for several months now. He has a 1.22 ERA in his starts since Aug. 5, allowing just 5 earned runs in 37.0 innings pitched. Offensively, Houston ranks among the league's top 10 teams vs. right-handed pitchers. Estes has not been bad over the last five weeks, compiling a 3.66 ERA, but his overall and advanced numbers simply to not approach what Brown has been able to produce for the season and recently.
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