While we have cooled off a bit with our Major League Baseball Superstar and All-Star betting picks, we still keep handing out winners after our 15-game winning streak. That trend continued with a 2-1 day yesterday. Today we have a pair of All-Star selections as we turn to an Atlanta Braves club that is clinging to a half-game lead over the New York Mets in the race for the final National League wildcard spot and a New York Yankees team that is barely holding off the Baltimore Orioles, who also trail by a half game, in the AL East standings.
So, clearly these games mean a lot to both teams. That's a key consideration when our model suggests picks at this time of the year.
Before we break down today's All-Star selections, please keep in mind that our All-Star picks are our "second tier" of selections, carrying a 60 percent or better win probability according to our proprietary StatLogic Sports algorithm. Our Superstar selections are the top-level picks, and they have a win probability of 70 percent or better.
Here is a look at our recent MLB results:
Recent MLB Superstar Pick Results
8/30 NY Yankees -166 WIN (70%)
8/19 Kansas City -240 WIN (70%)
8/16 NY Mets -270 WIN (70%)
Recent MLB All-Star Pick Results
9/2 NY Yankees (-1.5) -115 (67%) WIN
9/2 Houston Astros -160 (64%) LOSS
9/3 San Diego Padres -205 (65%) WIN
9/1 NY Yankees -225 (67%) LOSS
8/31 San Francisco -162 (61%) LOSS
8/31 Texas -142 WIN (65%)
8/30 NY Mets -225 WIN (67%)
8/30 Cleveland -162 WIN (63%)
8/27 San Diego -142 (64%) WIN
8/25 Los Angeles -225 (67%) WIN
8/24 Atlanta -166 WIN (67%)
8/20 Arizona -130 WIN
8/20 Kansas City -120 WIN
8/20 San Francisco -1.5 (-118) WIN
8/19 Kansas City - 1.5 (-125) WIN
8/18 Seattle -187 WIN
8/17 San Diego -196 WIN (67%)
8/16 NY Mets -1.5 (-122) WIN
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StatLogic Sports MLB All-Star Selections 9/3
Atlanta Braves -150 (-1.5) vs. Colorado Rockies (64%) 7:20 p.m. EDT
Chris Sale (15-2, 2.58) vs. Kyle Freeland (4-6, 5.51 ERA)
The frontrunner for the National League Cy Young Award continues his march toward that accomplishment tonight against a team that hits just .237 and has an OPS below .700 vs. left-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, the Braves lead all MLB teams with a .256 average and rank fourth in OPS at .767 against lefties. The lefty Atlanta faces tonight also has an ERA of 5.51 for the year while posting a 5.19 mark over the past month. While his advanced numbers are slightly better than that, Sale shows no sign of slowing down as he has posted a 2.05 ERA since Aug. 1, allowing just 7 earned runs in his last 30 innings. His performance to date is no fluke; Sale has an xERA of 2.71 and an xFIP of 2.55. Atlanta allows 1.9 fewer runs per game than the Rockies, who also happen ot have the worst bullpen in MLB. The Braves' pen, on the other hand ranks third with a 3.31 ERA, while Colorado's bullpen has a 5.53 ERA. If the run line scares you off a bit, consider putting 75 percent of your bet on that and the other 25% on the money line.
New York Yankees -140 at Texas Rangers (60%) 8:05 p.m. EDT
Carlos Rodon (14-9, 4.31 ERA) vs. Andrew Heaney (4-13, 3.95 ERA)
We go to the well with the Yankees for the third straight day as they continue to cling to a half-game lead over the Orioles in the AL East. New York took care of business last night, rolling to an 8-3 lead before the usual bullpen hijinks made us sweat a little. The good news is that master save-blower Clay Holmes was brought in with a five-run advantage and almost squandered it (again) before a great play by Gleyber Torres bailed him out. That means he has little or no chance of pitching if the game is close tonight, which is great news for us. Most of New York's key bullpen parts are available, and the Yanks' pen has posted a 3.76 ERA this year, compared to Texas' 4.40. As for the starters, Heaney has made a career of being inconsistent and underachieving, but he has posted a 3.24 ERA of late and a 3.95 ERA for the year. That's better than Rodon's 4.15 mark during the last month and season-long 4.31 ERA. The two are very similar when the advanced statistics are considered, however, as Rodon has an xERA of 4.18, an xFIP of 4.30 and a road xFIP of 4.41. Compare that to Heaney's 4.21 xERA, 4.25 xFIP and 4.07 home xFIP. If we consider the starting pitchers a tossup, New York's bullpen and offense should make the difference. The Yankees average a full run per game more than Texas, 5.1 to 4.1, and have an OPS of .727 vs. left handers, compared to the Rangers .696 OPS against southpaws.
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