By Scott L. – SL Sports Staff
Major League baseball is never easy to bet.
Betting baseball is always a challenge because there are so many variables to consider. Important variables at play include inconsistent umpiring, poor managerial decisions, weather, right vs. left matchups, home vs. away numbers, tired bullpens vs. rested bullpens, travel, etc. And of course, one pitcher can out pitch the other, but the weakly hit balls the better pitcher generates drop in for timely hits while the other pitcher is giving up rockets all over the field that are either hit directly at fielders or turned into outs by great defensive plays.
Betting baseball gets even harder this time of year.
We are almost through the dog days of August, and many teams are just playing out the string. They may have thrown in the towel and sold off many of their veterans at the trade deadline so they can get a good look at their inexperienced prospects down the stretch. Other teams may be engaged in a heated race for a postseason berth, while a team like Milwaukee is cruising toward October with a 10-game lead over the Cardinals in the National League Central Division.
A team that already was playing well like the Brewers may play even better now that they are virtually assured of a trip to the playoffs and have no pressure on them. Then again, since every game isn’t life or death for them, you also can be assured that some key players will be rested at least occasionally and that the team won’t be bringing its highest level of intensity to the ballpark every night.
Teams that are out of the race may be running players out to the mound and up to home plate who have little or no MLB experience. It’s true that the veterans on these teams may have nothing to lose, they also have nothing to play for and may be counting the days to vacation. The younger players are playing to make an impression and to hopefully win a job for next season, and that pressure, combined with their inexperience at the big-league level and lack of knowledge of their opponents, may lead to uneven performances.
Clubs in the running are more likely to feel mounting late-inning pressure in close games, which can lead to defensive mistakes, poor pitching, a lack of clutch hitting and mental miscues. On the flip side, when those teams face teams out of playoff contention, their opponents may not feel any pressure late in games.
Baseball is much easier to play when you aren’t squeezing the bat too hard or gripping the life out of the baseball.
A team in the playoff race might extend its starting pitchers longer than usual, pitch them on fewer days rest and overwork their top bullpen pitchers. By always trying to utilize their best players they may actually be at a disadvantage if those players wear down physically and mentally.
Then there are teams like the Mariners, and to some degree the Orioles. They both appeared to be playoff locks less than a month ago, adding key components to their rosters at the trade deadline to bolster their weaknesses, but have struggled to make the new pieces fit.
Seattle appeared to have a stranglehold on the American League West race, sprinting to a 10-game lead at one point only to watch the surging Astros overtake them by 4.5 games. The Mariners, who fired their manager as the season slipped away, now are on the outside looking in, 6.5 games out of the final wildcard slot.
Baltimore still is hovering near the top of the AL East, but a team that was 24 games above .500 at one point has been playing at less than a .500 clip for the past few months. The Orioles have seen several all-star caliber players do down to injuries, including their closer, their top starting pitcher from last season, their No. 2 starter from a year ago, their top lefty setup guy, their all-star third baseman and others who figured to round out what should have been a premier starting rotation and an imposing bullpen.
Still boasting one off the top offensive lineups in the league, Baltimore is piecing together its rotation and pen while limping toward the finish line instead of running away with the division. The Orioles are still good, but they can win or lose against any team on any given night.
That just scratches the surface of the variables at play for MLB bettors to consider as we approach the season’s final month, so it makes sense that our StatLogic Sports proprietary algorithm becomes even more picky when recommending baseball winners this time of year.
No MLB Superstar or All-Star Recommended Bets Tonight
When we first ran the numbers through our formula to analyze tonight’s slate of MLB games, we noticed that the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees appeared to be on target to be recommended bets. Remember that our Superstar Picks are our highest-probability selections, with win probabilities exceeding 70%. Our All-Star Picks are teams that have better than a 60% win probability, according to our model.
The Yankees, who need to keep winning to keep their hold on first place in their division, and the Tigers, who are facing the hapless White Sox, seemed to be logical potential recommended picks.
Alas, ‘twas not to be.
The Yankees and their white-hot duo of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are in Washington to face a young, but scrappy Washington Nationals team that sold off many of its top veteran players at the deadline. Not long ago, the Nats were a .500 team and only a few games out of a wildcard spot. Now they are 13 games below .500 and looking ahead to the future. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games and 10-16 in their last 26.
New York, which rolled to an early lead in the AL East, was one of baseball’s worst teams between mid-May and late July, but the Yankees appear to be back on track as Judge has caught fire and already eclipsed the 50-home run mark. The Yankees are 6-4 in their last nine and 17-9 in their last 26.
New York starter Nestor Cortes struggled badly while the team was scuffling, with his name even appearing in some deadline-day trade rumors. And while he has posted a 2.93 ERA in his last three outings, Cortes saw his ERA for the month of July balloon to nearly 7.00. The consistency just hasn’t been there for him, and overall his numbers for the season compare favorably with those of young Washington starter Mitchell Parker. In fact, their advanced pitching stats such as xFIP and xERA as well as the home vs. road splits are comparable.
Interestingly, for some reason New York has jumped to a -245 favorite at DraftKings while hovering between -182 and -190 at most other books. At -185 the Yankees have an implied 65% win probability. It jumps to 71% at -245, and while our algorithm has them as a strong bet, the win probability doesn’t exceed those numbers. Those extremely short odds, along with New York’s loss as -225 favorites to Colorado a few days ago, the relatively even mound matchup and the Yankees’ inconsistent bullpen make this a “no bet” for us tonight.
The numbers look great for the Tigers, who have beaten Chicago three-straight times heading into tonight’s series finale on the road. The White Sox are a historically bad team that is 69 games below .500 and might struggle to win 40 games. It was not long ago that they dropped 21 straight contests, and more recently they have gone 4-12 in their last 16 outings.
Our model gives the Tigers a 63% win probability vs. the Sox, but that really doesn’t fully take into consideration that Detroit starting pitcher Ty Madden is making his MLB debut. The odds look pretty good for a bet on the Tigers at between -127 and -140, but usually when the odds seem to be much better than expected against a team as bad as the White Sox, something is amiss. The sportsbooks just don’t give away money, so while on the surface the Tigers appear to be a very strong bet, our mission – in addition to providing winning picks – is to let our followers and customers know when a bet may be too good to be true.
We simply cannot recommend this bet with an such an unknown quantity on the mound for Detroit – even as bad as Chicago is. White Sox starter Davis Martin has posted a respectable 3.22 ERA despite going 0-2 in his three starts this year.
The Tigers clearly are the better team, so betting on them on the surface seems reasonable, but for tonight we have to just say no to any MLB side bets.
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