We have no recommended bets today.
That's the one sentence, especially on an NFL Monday after what might have been a great or terrible gambling weekend, most sports bettors don't want to hear. We've got the first Monday Night Football game of the year between the 49ers and Jets tonight, and Major League Baseball pennant races going on with huge games being contested every night.
Bettors who won over the weekend are eager to keep the hot streak going, while those who had a rough weekend are ready to get back on the horse, rebound and recover some of their lost funds.
Both of those positions can be dangerous, and one of the things that differentiates us from our competitors is that we care about the long-term success of our followers and customers. We are more than happy to apply the breaks for you and help you see the big picture.
The goal is to enjoy a long-term return on investment and to take it one game and one day at a time. Long-term winning is a process. If we are disciplined and stick to that plan, hopefully at the end of each month there's a little bit of extra money in our bank accounts that over the course of the year adds up to a nice annual windfall.
So, we don't bet for the sake of betting or just because we are hot. And we don't increase our bets or wager on more games than usual because we lost a few bets.
The weekend hot streak has nothing to do with today's games, and betting the winnings for the hopes of an immediate, large return often leads to regret as all the work we did to get ahead gets thrown out the window because of one loss. Just because there are opportunities to bet today and make up for our losses doesn't mean that we have to bet. A string of losses or bad beats doesn't mean we are "due." Just like with the weekend hot streaks, those setbacks have absolutely nothing to do with todays' games
The danger of risking recent winnings in hopes of striking gold is the enormous amount of regret we are likely to feel if we throw it all away because of one or two less-than-ideal bets. That regret and disappointment is likely to lead us to make another unwise decision to get it back. Another loss and the regret can turn to panic. Panicked bettors are not smart bettors, and the losses tend to snowball in a hurry.
Also, that emotional roller coaster isn't good for anyone's mental health.
As for the losing bettors, trying to get it all back with an unwise bet can lead to another loss. When losses continue to mount, bets often increase as bettors hope to make the losses all back with one big win. A string of losses with increasing bets can add up quickly and leave a bettor in a hole from which he or she is unlikely to recover.
Steady bets or varying percentages within a specific range allows bettors to stay within their financial means and from being completely ruined by a losing streak. For our top-level customers we do provide money-management advice based on the amount of a client's bankroll, the win-probability of a bet and the amount he or she can afford to lose.
For the rest of our customers and followers, a simple method of responsible gambling is to determine the highest amount you can afford to lose on a single bet and then to bet that amount whenever we have a Superstar pick and vary the amount below the highest bet based on how high the win probability is when we provide All-Star selections.
It's also important to know when to say when and just say no, and we are more than willing to let you know when that approach is appropriate. Today is one of those days.
Sorry.
There are MLB bets that meet our percentage criteria to be All-Star picks, but those bets don't pass our strict set of rules. We have established rules that go along with our model to ensure that we don't fall into the trap of betting on games that look good on the surface but just have too many red flags to make them smart wagers. These rules provide safeguards that allow us to maximize our odds of enjoying a long-erm positive ROI and to help our customers and followers do the same by warning them against placing costly, unwise bets.
As for the Monday Night Football game between the Jets and Niners, we've been clear that our model doesn't provide reliable enough information for us to recommend picks during the first two or three weeks of the NFL or college football season. There are times, like the Friday night game in Brazil, where the early season information we do have access to paints a specific team in a very positive light. We are happy to provide that information, but always qualify it by reminding you that the game is not part of our long-term plan to turn a profit and is a "bet at your own risk proposition."
Tonight's MNF game qualifies more as a just-say-no proposition.
Just Say No to MLB Bets for Sept. 9
New York Yankees -176 vs. Kansas City Royals (68% win probability)
Atlanta Braves -146 vs. Cincinnati Reds (67%)
New York Mets -130 at Toronto Blue Jays (63%)
Pittsburgh Pirates -260 vs. Miami Marlins (60%)
Let's look at the Yankees first. While a 68-percent win probability looks great and even approaches the level of being a Superstar selection, there is much more here than meets the eye. Yes, the Yankees are in a heated race for the American League East title with the Baltimore Orioles, who are a half game back in the standings. That's been the case since May with these two teams. Both teams have had opportunities to pull away but have basically played .500 ball for three months now. That's a pretty large sample size, so that alone almost makes this game a coin flip. And while the 68-percent win probability is comforting, the -176 line implies a 64-percent win probability, which simply does not provide enough of an edge for us to recommend placing a bet on starting pitcher Carlos Rondon. Rondon very effective in his last outing but has only put together solid back-to-back performances once since May. The pitching matchup also is pretty even on paper, and the Yankee bullpen has really struggled the second half of the season. Kansas City is still in the AL wildcard race, too, so they will be giving their best effort. The odds are just too much to stomach.
Much like the Yankees, the Braves basically have been treading water - or worse- for months now. Their offense has lost a lot of punch because of key injuries, and their usually dependable starting pitching has been pretty inconsistent. They do have one of the top bullpens in the game, but their pen is a bit tired and their closer may not be available. They've had many opportunities to solidify their hold on a wildcard spot after falling completely out of the National League East race. Their lead in the wildcard race has slowly dwindled to the point that they are now tied with the Mets for the final spot with fewer than 20 games remaining. Atlanta is 18-16 in its last 34 games and 5-5 in the last 10.
Certainly the Mets' odds at -130 seem much more tolerable that the other options with their win probability coming in at 63 percent. And they enter the game having won nine of their last 10 games and 13 out of 16. That run has come on the heels of a four-game losing streak, but it has allowed them to move into a tie with Atlanta for the final playoff berth. Starting pitcher Tylor Megill hasn't gone more than 5.1 innings in his two starts since coming off the injuried list, and he lasted just 4.0 innings in his last outing vs. Boston, allowing 3 earned runs on 5 hits. Betting on him in his third start after that type of outing doesn't instill much confidence. He's going up against veteran Chris Bassitt, who has posted pretty awful numbers during the past two months (ERA above 5.0 in August and over 7.0 in July). Bassitt gave up 3 earned runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings his last time out vs. Philadelphia, but Bassitt has been solid at home, posting a 3.97 xFIP in Toronto. With a different pitcher on the mound for New York, this probably would be a recommended bet.
While rookie ace Paul Skenes is on the mound for the Pirates tonight, laying -260 just isn't even worth considering for a team with a 67-76 record that has shown almost no signs of life in recent weeks. Two outings ago, Skenes left a game against the Cubs after allowing 2 earned runs in 5.0 innings and with a big lead only to watch Pittsburgh's horrific bullpen blow a 7-run advantage over the final 3 innings. So tonight, despite his dominance, we're supposed to recommend our model's 60-percent win probability when the implied probability of winning at -260 is 72 percent? No chance. Is it possible to consider a first-five bet? Sure, but that number is even higher at -315. Run line? The full game -1.5 run line still is -125 and that doesn't eliminate the Pirates' bullpen from the equation. And the first-five run line at -0.5 is -200. If you make that bet you're banking on an anemic Pittsburgh offense that has hit .233 against right-handed pitchers this year.
Just Say No to Monday Night Football
New York Jets +4.5 at San Francisco 49ers (43)
This line has bounced between 4 and 4.5 all day, probably based on assumptions about the health of San Francisco superstar running back Christian McCaffrey. It shouldn't matter. Not only does this fit into the category of an uncertain Week 1 NFL matchup, but also both sides are littered with question marks. McCaffrey is listed as questionable with a calf injury that has hampered him throughout training camp. There have been rumors all day that he won't play. Even if he does, clearly he's not 100 percent and won't assume a full workload. Meanwhile, Brandon Aiyuk, the 49ers' 1A or 1B wide receiver, and their top offensive lineman Trent Williams are a week or less removed from their holdouts. Aiyuk supposedly will be limited to a set number of snaps, and reports are the Williams isn't in shape. He will play and dominate when he's out there, but how much will his fitness level allow him to participate. On the other side, you've got a 40-year-old quarterback who hasn't played more than a few snaps in a meaningful NFL game in more than 18 months. Oh yeah, he's also coming off an achilles' injury that sidelined him all of last year, and the Jets have completely revamped their offensive line. You might as well bet on a coin flip. Just say no.
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