After all the Super Saturdays with 150 or more games and Championship Week with its 50-game mid-week slates, we are down to the final five contests before the 2025 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament Field of 68 is announced.
Sunday there are five more conference championship games with five more automatic bids to be earned and the potential for two more bids to be stolen after Colorado State won its way into the Big Dance in the Mountain West Tournament Saturday night.
Selection Sunday Conference Championship Games
Yale vs. Cornell - Ivy League at noon
VCU vs. George Mason - Atlantic 10 at 1:00 p.m. EDT
Florida vs. Tennessee - SEC at 1:00 EDT
Memphis vs. UAB - AAC at 3:15 p.m. EDT
Wisconsin vs. Michigan - Big Ten at 3:30 p.m. EDT
The day tips off with the Ivy League finals and the clear-cut two best teams in that conference competing for the auto-bid. If Yale wins, the Bulldogs figure to land on the 13-seed line, maybe 14, while Cornell probably would check in as a 15 seed with an upset victory. Yale is favored by 5 or 5.5. The loser has no shot of getting an invite.
VCU absolutely has to be in the Field of 68 after steamrolling its way through the A-10 this year. In fact, we feel they've earned a nine seed, but it's more likely the Selection Committee might hand them a 10 or 11, especially if the Rams lose Sunday. George Mason has had a breakthrough season under head coach Tony Skinn, a member of the team's historic Final Four team, but the Patriots weren't much of a match for VCU this season. losing to the Rams by 16 points Feb. 25. The A-10 is a one bid league unless the Patriots pull off the upset Sunday.
Florida and Tennessee square off in the SEC championship game in Music City, with the Gators seemingly having locked up a No. 1 seed by dismantling Alabama in the semifinals. The Vols should be a No. 2 regardless of today's outcome, but who knows what might happen if they could manage a blowout win after upsetting Auburn Saturday. In our Field of 68, Auburn has fallen below Houston and Florida to the lowest No. 1 seed spot for the first time all year, but we are not confident the Selection Committee will feel the same way.
Memphis is a lock for the tournament and is better than than the No. 8 or 9 seed the Tigers are likely to receive. However, a loss to surging UAB today might justify that seeding; if Memphis wins the AAC is a one-trick pony.
Not much is up for grabs in the Big Ten other than bragging rights, but a win for Wisconsin probably secures a No. 3 seed, while Michigan might sneak up to the No. 4 or 5 line by beating the Badgers after a thrilling last-second win in a slugfest against Maryland, our 10th-ranked team, Saturday.
So what does this all mean for the teams on the bubble? Well, iin our StatLogic Sports world, wins by UAB and GMU would knock out San Diego State and Xavier, the last two in our field of 68. Our field is exactly that, however. It's what we think the tournament bracket SHOULD look like and not necessarily what we think the Selection Committee will produce.
Our field has Ohio State in over Indiana as the ninth Big Ten team. Yes, OSU lost to the Hoosiers in the Big Ten tournament, but the Buckeyes have two more Quad 1 wins than Indiana and are ranked higher in every single metric that usually is considered. OSU's three losses to Quad 2 teams are one way the Committee could justify leaving them out.
With Colorado State stealing a bid in the Mountain West Tournament Saturday, we are skeptical that the Committee will include New Mexico, Utah State, Colorado State, Boise State and San Diego State, MWC teams that would likely fall between the No. 9 and 12 seed lines. But our numbers indicate that San Diego State deserves the last bid over teams like Indiana and North Carolina.
Like many folks, though, we fear that brand-name recognition might work in favor of UNC or Indiana, who likely would generate large TV viewership numbers playing in the First Four. Carolina has just one Quad 1 victory and really didn't beat anyone good despite a late-season winning streak. Given that, we thing it would make sense that the Selection Committee might include Indiana over UNC and San Diego State, but the process has been pretty good to MWC teams in the past.
At the bottom of this page are our recommended picks, betting edges, parlay options and more for March 16. We've been hot lately:
Postseason College Basketball Record:
Parlay Options: 25-4 (86.2%)
Betting Edges: 28-18-1 (60.9%)
Bonus Picks: 6-2 (75.0%)
Last 7 Days: 54-36-1 (60.0%)
Here is how we think the first 12 seed lines SHOULD look. We hope to post a separate projection of how we think the Selection Committee will seed this year's tournament later today:
Highest seed listed first on each line. Updated 2:45 p.m. EDT March 16.
1 – Duke, Houston, Florida, Auburn
2 - Tennessee, Alabama, St. John’s, Michigan State
3 – Texas Tech, Iowa State, Arizona, Wisconsin
4 – Maryland, Kentucky, Clemson, Purdue
5 – Texas A&M, BYU, Louisville, St. Mary's
6 – Michigan, Illinois, Missouri, Mississippi
7 – Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA, Oregon
8 – Marquette, Mississippi State, Creighton, UConn
9 – Baylor, Memphis, VCU, Georgia
10 – Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico
11 – Vanderbilt, UC San Diego, Ohio State, West Virginia, Utah State
12 – Colorado State, Drake, McNeese, Xavier, Boise State
Last 4 In:
WVU, Utah State, Xavier, Boise State
Last 4 Byes:
Oklahoma Ohio State, Vanderbilt, Texas
Last In:
Boise State
First Out:
San Diego State
First 4 Out:
San Diego Stater, North Carolina, Cincinnat
Automatic Qualifiers as of March 15
26 down & 5 to go
Lipscomb
High Point
UNCW
Robert Morris
Drake
St. Francis
SIUE
Wofford
Omaha
Troy
Gonzaga
American
McNeese
Montana
Bryant
Akron
Liberty
Duke
St. John's
Norfolk State
Houston
Mount St. Mary's
Colorado State
Alabama State
UC San Diego
Grand Canyon
Big Ten
Florida
Ivy League
VCU
AAC
Friendly Daily Reminder
When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through a stringent set of rules and parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts, you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.
Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so as we strive to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide suggest parlay options that are strong bets and don't quite make the cut for us as recommended selections. We also may present other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.
Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering between 55 and 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 3/16
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
N/A
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 3/16
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
N/A
StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 3/16
N/A
Parlay City
While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.
Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 384-138 (73.6%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they were 31-2. We closed out college hoops regular season on a 21-3 run with our parlay options.
Postseason Money Line Parlay Options: 27-4
Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 3/16
VCU - WIN
Memphis - WIN
NBA:
TBD
StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 3/15
Cornell +5.5 vs. Yale (2.97) - LOSS
Tennessee +5.5 vs. Florida (1.35) - LOSS
Memphis -4.5 vs. UAB (8.48) - WIN
Dogs of the Day
These are the teams that we believe have the best shot at winning outright as underdogs. These are NOT recommended picks.
Cornell +210 vs. Yale s
Tennessee +215 vs. Florida
Postseason College Basketball Record:
Parlay Options: 27-4 (87.1%)
Betting Edges: 29-20-1 (59.2%)
Bonus Picks: 6-2 (75.0%)
Last 7 Days: 46-33-1 (58.2%)
Last 55 days: 490-351 (58.3%)
Postseason Betting Edge Log
March 16: 1-2
March 15: 5-2
March 14: 4-3-1
March 13: 11-8
March 12: 8-5
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edges
Final Regular-Season Record:
875-662-19 (56.9%)
March 9 Record: 7-7
March 8 Record: 10-6
March 7 Record: 9-5
March 6 Record: 8-8
March 5 Record: 7-5
March 4 Record: 13-6
March 3 Record: 3-1
March 2 Record: 7-3
March 1 Record: 17-14
Feb. 28 Record: 6-5
Feb. 27 Record: 4-3
Feb. 26 Record: 9-7
Feb. 25 Record: 10-6
Feb. 24 Record: 5-2
Feb. 23 Record: 6-2-1
Feb. 22 Record: 13-13
Feb. 21 Record: 5-2
Feb. 20 Record: 4-7
Feb. 19 Record: 8-8
Feb. 18 Record: 3-6
Feb. 17 Record: 3-1
Feb. 16 Record: 5-2
Feb. 15 Record: 23-14-2
Feb. 14 Record: 5-2
Feb. 13 Record: 9-5
Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1
Feb. 11 Record: 11-3
Feb. 10 Record: 4-0
Feb. 9 Record: Off Day
Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1
Feb. 7 Record: 1-3
Feb. 6 Record: 7-8
Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1
Feb. 4 Record: 9-8
Feb. 3 Record: 8-5
Feb. 2 Record: 3-3
Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1
Jan. 31 Record: 6-3
Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1
Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1
Jan. 28 Record: 13-7
Jan. 27 Record: 8-1
Jan. 26 Record: 0-4
Jan. 25 Record: 21-17
Jan. 24 Record: 3-4
Jan. 23 Record: 8-6
Jan. 22 Record: 7-10
Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1
Jan. 20 Record: 6-3
Jan. 19 Record: 2-4
Jan. 18 Record: 20-14
Jan. 17 Record: 6-4
Jan. 16 Record: 15-6
Final 7 days 57-38 (60.0%)
Final 5
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