As we mentioned at the start of the National Football League, college football and National Basketball Association seasons, it takes several weeks of current data for our proprietary algorithm to function at a level that allows us to be comfortable releasing recommended picks. That holds true for college basketball as well.
That doesn't mean that the process is just starting for us, though. In fact, it's quite the opposite.
Since Day 1 of the 2024-35 college hoops season, we've been evaluating games and point spreads, tracking results and determining which games likely have betting edges. Every night we document those contests where we feel there are edges and keep track of the results so we can have a feel for the good teams, the weak teams, the underachievers and the overachievers as our data becomes more usable.
This eventually becomes the starting point for the daily process we go through in determining which picks are recommended to the public and/or our clients. We narrow the games down to the ones that we feel might present a significant betting edge before running the numbers on those games.
After analyzing as many as 50 different statistical categories and other factors for each contest, our model proceeds to provide us with win probabilities for whichever games we run. Percentages are provided for spread bets, money-line bets and totals.
From there. we throw out any games that are below 60-percent win probability and then apply a rigorous set of rules to each contest to determine which ones meet our final criteria. Information such as injuries, rest, coaching matchups, styles of play and pace, recent form and other data points are included in this process.
Once the process is complete, hopefully we are left with a few games that become recommended picks - and perhaps one or two that narrowly miss the cut. Bets with a 60 percent or better win probability are released as All-Star Picks, while selections that carry a 70 percent or better win probability are released as Superstar Picks.
Occasionally a bet that narrowly misses the cut may be posted as a bonus pick, and there are times where we may have a pick that is so strong but with odds so short that we may pair it with an All-Star pick or bonus selection as part of a parlay.
We usually don't recommend parlays, but we realize there are times when the juice makes betting a certain side prohibitive for some people. When that happens, we although we may not recommend the parlay, we at least want to help those folks have the best chance of winning if that's the direction they choose to go.
So far in our tracking of college basketball games since the season opened almost a month ago, the games we have determine to have betting edges have posted a record of 127-99-2 (56.1). That's a pretty good starting point before we even run the games through the algorithm.
Going forward as time permits, we will post those daily edges along with our recommended picks, if we have any. Those games always are bet at your own risk, but since August for college football, college basketball and the NFL, those games have proven to be winners well over 50% of the time.
Tonight we may have our first recommended selections of the young college hoops season. If so, they will be posted here. In the meantime, the games with edges are posted below.
StatLogic Sports College Basketball Superstar Picks for Dec. 3
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability - N/A
StatLogic Sports College Basketball All-Star Picks for Dec. 3
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability - N/A
Dec. 3 College Basketball Games w/Betting Edges
Cincinnati -3.5 at Villanova - LOSS
Arkansas money line -185 at Miami - WIN
California +11 at Missouri - WIN
St. Joseph's -5 vs. Princeton - LOSS
Syracuse +22 at Tennessee - LOSS
North Carolina A&T +5 at Hampton - LOSS
South Carolina money line -190 at Boston College - WIN
St. Peter's +5.5 at Duquesne - WIN
UNC Wilmington +6.5 at East Carolina - WIN
Indiana -13.5 vs. Sam Houston State - WIN
Bradley -4 at Southern Illinois - WIN
Evansville +13.5 at Murray State - WIN
Providence +6 vs. BYU - WIN
Texas A&M -8 vs. Wake Forest - WIN
Georgia Tech +12 at Oklahoma - LOSS
Louisville money line -150 vs. Mississippi - LOSS
Hawaii +14 at Grand Canyon - WIN
Florida State +4.5 at LSU - LOSS
Washington +12 at UCLA - WIN
Dec. 3 record: 12-7 (63.2%)
Season Record: 139-106-2 (56.7%)
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