It's crunch time for the Twins, and something has to give.
Minnesota is still breathing, but hanging on for dear life, in the American League Wildcard race. The Twins lost to the 58-win Miami Marlins last night, 4-1, and sit 2 games out of the final wildcard spot. They have lost 7 of their last 10, and so have the Marlins. They have scored just 5 runs in their past 3 games and 33 in their last 10 (3.3 per game). With their season on the line, we expect a little positive regression tonight as they face a pitcher in Edward Cabrera who last only 2.1 innings in his last outing.
Cabrera has a live arm and generates ridiculous movement on his pitches, which is probably why he has 49 walks in 91 innings pitched. For the year, he is 4-8 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. His last time out vs. the Dodgers Cabrera allowed 7 earned runs on just 4 hits while walking 5 in 2.1 innings. His numbers have improved over the second half of the season, but his xERA for the season still sits at a lofty 4.65. Minnesota is almost a top-10 MLB team in terms of the number or pitches seen per plate appearance, so if Cabrera has his usual control issues, that plays right into the Twins' hands.
Minnesota starting pitcher Simeon Woods-Richardson has been a pleasant surprise this year, posting a respectable 4.00 ERA and a 1.251 WHIP while going 5-5. The Twins are 16-11 in games he has started. His xERA is much better than Cabrera's at 4.09, but his xFIP is a little higher at 4.54. That number drops to 4.22 at home. He allowed just 1 run on 5 hits while walking 1 and striking out 6 in 4.1 innings vs. Cleveland the last time he pitched.
Miami hits for a slightly higher average vs. right handers than the Twins, .249 to .244, but Minnesota has a much higher OPS at .725, compared to the Marlins' .693. They should have plenty of baserunners tonight, which should lead to more than enough runs to win the game against a team that averages just 3.8 runs per game for the season. The Twins are due to break out, and this should be the right pitcher for them to do it against as they have averaged only 3.3 runs over their past 10 outings while scoring 4.6 per contest for the full season.
StatLogic Sports All-Star Pick for 9/25
Minnesota Twins -185 vs. Miami Marlins (64% win probability) at 7:40 p.m.
Parlay City
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Minnesota Twins w/Juan Soto OVER 1 H+R+RBI at -109
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