Here is our ninth version of the StatLogic Sports NCAA College Football Power Rankings. This week, as we enter Championship Week, we are presenting our Power 50 heading into the postseason.
This edition is for Week 15 of the 2024 NCAA College Football season and includes betting edges and recommended picks that will be posted as our model finalizes them. Our full slate of betting edges will be posted by the early kickoffs Saturday along with any additional recommended bets.
These are power rankings for the top 50 teams based on a combination of performance, the good old eye test, our algorithm's numbers, the market and the bookmakers' opinions. We also got a new batch of data from the College Football Playoff rankings this week to consider.
As the week goes on, information such as injuries are added to the mix to help adjust numbers as well as other considerations such as the weather and the importance of the game to both teams. Our strict rules and guidelines are then applied to the weekly picks our model provides to give us our recommended selections for the week.
After several weekends of upsets and some less-than-stellar performances by teams at the top of our rankings, the teams at the top that are jockeying for College Football Playoff berths and seeding have gotten even more jumbled with much less separation. Some teams that play more difficult schedules have beaten up on each other and dropped some in the rankings as team's with easier slates such as Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame have continued to inch their way to the top. Also, after being replaced for a few days by Ohio State at the top of the rankings, Oregon has its strongest hold on the top spot of the season.
Choking in a big rivalry game to an average team will cause that type of shift. Right Buckeyes?
Texas remains moves to No. 2 despite no top 10 wins. The Longhorns closed out their season in style with a convincing win over a good Texas A&M team and has not faltered against its weaker opponents. Based on the eye test and their ability to take care of business every week except one, the belief among the the bookmakers and sharp betting market is that the Longhorns look the part and have done what they needed to do when others have not. The only Texas loss came against a Georgia team that has inched its way back into the top five, and the SEC Championship Game will determine which of those teams deserves top billing coming out of the nation's best league.
A look at the other top teams shows that Penn State dropped its only shot at a siganture victory by losing to Ohio State, but the Nittany Lions get a chance to show where they stand in Saturday's Big Ten title-game matchup vs. No. 1 Oregon. Meanwhile, Notre Dame, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi all have bad losses on their resume, while Indiana and SMU don't have any overly impressive wins.
Arizona State has emerged as the class of a deep Big 12 this year and clearly is superior to Boise State, which is ranked above the Sun Devils in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. The question is if an impressive win for ASU against a tough Iowa State team would propel the Sun Devils ahead of Boise in the CFP rankings even if the Broncos defeat an underrated and well-coached UNLV team in the Mountain West Championship.
In our eyes it should, but that doesn't mean it will. If both teams win their conference titles, the side that is ranked higher by the CFP Committee receives a first-round bye, so those two games are if enormous importance this weekend.
Championship Week results also may impact whether idle teams such as Mississippi, Alabama, Clemson and Miami are invited to the first-ever 12-team CFP dance. And if UNLV wins, would that open the door for the winner of the Army-Tulane game to slide in ahead of the Rebels and would Boise still be considered for an at-large berth at the expense of an SEC or ACC team? It all makes for a fascinating and what should be a tension-filled weekend of great college football action - just like we all hoped when the CFP format was announced. The reality is that whether they have four-team, 12-team or 90-team tournament, the last few teams out always are going to feel like they got shafted.
We continually have tweaked our process as the season has progressed, and these numbers are updated throughout each week based on the factors mentioned above right up until the first kickoff of the day every Saturday. This process is utilized to determine our recommended picks each week and to list games that we feel have betting edges. Games with potential edges can be found below as well.
Superstar Picks have better than a 70-percent win probability according to our model, while All-Star Selections have a 60-percent or better win probability. Below the rankings are the games we felt had betting edges before running the numbers through our algorithm as well as our strenuous set of rules and guidelines that are applied to any game our model indicates has a 60-percent-or-better win probability.
Our college football games with betting edges have gone 116-104-3 through Week 14's games. Keep in mind that these are not recommended picks, but serve as a starting point for us when narrowing our betting options each week.
We will update the recommended picks and edges right up until the early kickoffs on Saturday each week.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for Week 15
Superstar Picks have a 70 or better win probability - TBD
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for Week 15
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
Louisiana money line -190 (65%)
StatLogic Sports Week 15 NCAA Football Power 35
Oregon 100.0
Texas 99.5
Ohio State 98.5
Georgia 97.5
Penn State 97.5
Notre Dame 97.5
Tennessee 97.0
Mississippi 96.0
Alabama 95.5
Indiana 95.5
SMU 94.0
Miami 93.5
South Carolina 93.5
Arizona State 93.5
Boise State 92.5
Iowa State 92.0
Clemson 92.0
Texas A&M 91.0
BYU 91.0
Colorado 90.5
LSU 90.5
Missouri 90.0
Florida 90.0
Kansas State 89.5
Louisville 89.0
Illinois 89.0
Syracuse 89.0
Baylor 88.5
UNLV 88.0
Minnesota 87.5
TCU 87.0
Texas Tech 87.0
Georgia Tech 86.5
Iowa 86.5
Michigan 86.0
USC 85.5
Tulane 85.5
Nebraska 85.0
Oklahoma 85.0
Kansas 84.5
Vanderbilt 84.5
Washington State 84.5
Boston College 84.5
Auburn 84.0
Washington 83.5
Army 83.0
Duke 82.5
Arkansas 82.5
Wisconsin 82.5
Pittsburgh/VA Tech/Utah/Memphis 82.0
Potentially Overvalued
Miami, Boise State, Missouri, Memphis
Potentially Undervalued
South Carolina, Colorado, Tulane
Week 15 NCAA College Football Betting Edges
Friday Games
Jacksonville State money line -180 vs. Western Kentucky - WIN
Tulane money line -185 vs. Army & OVER 45.5 - Loss/WIN
UNLV +4.5 vs. Boise State & OVER 57.5 - LOSS/LOSS
updated 12/7 at 11:59 a.m. EDT
Saturday Games
Arizona State vs. Iowa State OVER 49.5 - WIN
Miami Ohio money line -125 vs. Ohio - LOSS
Georgia +3 (and higher) vs. Texas - WIN
Marshall +7 -145 or +7.5 -159 vs. Louisiana (buy points) - WIN
SMU money line -135 vs. Clemson & OVER 55 - LOSS/WIN
Oregon money line -165 vs. Penn State & UNDER 51.5 - WIN/LOSS
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