By Scott L. - SL Sports Staff
So, it didn't take long for March to roll in and engulf us in the madness.
Monday night we had the fifth and sixth seeds in the Southern Conference battling for a trip to the NCAA Tournament in one of the best and most entertaining games of the year, with No. 6 Wofford eventually outlasting a plucky Furman team to earn the invite. Meanwhile, in the Coastal Athletic Association, we saw a Towson squad that had lost just two games in league play and won 17 of its previous 18 outings fall to Delaware, a team that entered the postseason having dropped 11 of its previous 12 contests before catching fire to win four straight and advance to the CAA title game in Washington, D.C.
In the West Coast Conference, Pepperdine, a team that had long been given up for dead and brought just 10 total wins into the league tournament, went on a three-game bender that included an upset of a Santa Clara side that has been on the edge of the NCAA Tournament bubble for weeks. Alas, the Waves didn't have enough in the tank to get past a very good and underappreciated St. Mary's squad in the WCC semifinals. St. Mary's is destined for at least a No. 5 seed in the Big Dance, but Pepperdine managed to stay within shouting distance of the Gaels most of the night before falling by 15 points as 18.5-point underdogs.
As the power-conference tournaments get underway Tuesday with the start of play in the Atlantic Coast Conference and Big 12, the good news for the teams on our NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch is that the mid-major conference champs crowned thus far have been teams that were either expected to win their tournaments or be in the finals. To this point, no bids have been stolen.
The two conferences most likely to produce bid-stealers to date were the Missouri Valley and WCC. Drake, which would have been on the bubble with a loss, took care of business in the WCC by beating a tough Bradley team for the championship, and last night's elimination of Pepperdine and San Francisco in the WCC left only tourney-locks St. Mary's and Gonzaga standing to compete for the trophy and automatic bid.
The real bid-stealing watch begins Tuesday, however, as the ACC, a once-proud league which used to produce as many as 10 legitimate NCAA Tourney hopefuls annually, tips off its tournament in Charlotte. For years the ACC Tournament was considered the crown jewel of all Division I basketball conference championships, and winning an ACC title ranked just barely below capturing an NCAA championship on the wishlist of coaches you may have heard of named Smith, Williams, Krzyzewski, Driesell and McGuire.
Times have changed, however, and in 2025 the ACC appears likely to be outbid by the Mountain West, with only three teams locked in to receiving NCAA bids at this point. For those on - and just off - the bubble, the ACC having a down year probably increases the likelihood of a bid-stealer emerging from ashes to win that tournament.
A talented, but underachieving North Carolina team that was red hot prior to a season-ending double-digit loss at No. 1 Duke, is the prime candidate to make a run to the dance. The truth is that the Tar Heels still may need to win it all in Charlotte to earn an invite.
Carolina is listed among most bracketologists' "first five out," and given their draw in Charlotte, it appears likely that they would have to beat either Notre Dame or Pitt, another big underachiever that was on the bubble three weeks ago before fading, and a Wake Forest team that is solidly out of the mix at this point before facing Duke again in the semifinals.
The good news for UNC is that a win against Duke probably would get them in, so they may not have to win the championship to earn an invite after all. The bad news is that another team that was recently on the bubble such as SMU could advance to face the Heels in the title game, which could make that contest a de facto win-and-get-in matchup. If the Tar Heels advance to the championship and face a tourney lock such as Clemson or Louisville, though, that win over Duke probably would be enough to send them forward.
It is March, so it's always best to expect the unexpected. Remember that NC State came out of nowhere to win the ACC championship and steal a bid last year before making a memorable run to the Final Four, so anything can happen in that league and so many others around the country.
That's what makes March great, and what will keep so many coaches of bubble teams up at night until Sunday's Selection Show.
We tip off postseason play in the power conferences Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. EDT with another underachiever, Cincinnati, taking on Oklahoma State at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. The Bearcats opened the season ranked among the nation's Top 25 before going 17-14 overall and 7-13 in league play to finish tied for 12th. Cincy was on the bubble just a few weeks ago, and given their preseason status, they have the talent on paper to stir up some magical March Madness.
Colorado and TCU play at 3 p.m. in the Big 12, with Arizona State and Kansas State slated to get underway at 7 p.m. and Central Florida set to take on Utah at 9:30. Kansas State had a nice mid-season run to work its way onto the bubble before a late fade, but they Wildcats are another team to keep an eye on and make bubble coaches toss and turn in their beds.
Pitt and Notre Dame tip off the ACC Tournament at 2 p.m. EDT, followed by Cal vs. Virginia Tech at 4:30 and Syracuse vs. Florida State at 7. None of those teams, with the exception of Pitt, seems to have the manpower to make a deep ACC run, but maybe a Florida State side that quietly has won 17 games could pull off a miracle as the Seminoles play out the final games of longtime-coach Leonard Hamilton's illustrious career.
While the WCC, CAA and Horizon League wrap up their tourneys Tuesday, other mid-major tournaments getting underway include the Western Athletic Conference, the Metro Athletic Conference, the Northeast Conference, Conference USA and the Southwestern Athletic Conference. Meanwhile, the BIg Sky Tournament semifinals will feature Montana State taking on Northern Colorado and Idaho facing Montana, while in the Southland semis it will be Montana vs. Idaho and Montana State vs. Northern Colorado.
CLICK HERE for the full NCAA basketball schedule with odds for Tuesday, March 11.
Our updated Power 75 can be found at the bottom of the page, but first here is a look at what we think the NCAA Tournament field should look like:
Last Four Teams In
1) Indiana
2) San Diego State
3) Texas
4) Utah State
Last Four Byes
1) Ohio State
2) West Virginia
3) Vanderbilt
4) Oklahoma
Note: We are including conference-tournament favorites Memphis, VCU and New Mexico in our field and have each projected as a top-10 seed. We have UC San Diego as a No. 12 seed and assuming they win the Big West championship. They would be on the bubble and likely outside the field if they are beaten in the conference tournament.
Teams That Still Can Play Their Way In
Xavier - The Musketeers currently are ouir last team out, only because of their 1-8 Quad 1 record. On the flip side, Xavier is 8-2 vs. Q2 and a combined 12-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 foes. Boise State, on the other hand, has a pair of Q3/4 losses, while both UNC and Cincinnati are 1-11 vs. Q1. The bad news for the Musketeers, seeded fourth in the BIG EAST Tournament, is that they have to play fourth-seeded Marquette, our 19th-ranked team, Thursday in the conference quarterfinals. A win in that noon EDT start at Madison Square Garden might be enough to get them in if they play a competitive game against ninth-ranked St. John's in Friday's semifinals. Two wins in New York and Xavier would be a lock, so they Musketeers control their own destiny, even if the road in for them is a bumpy one.
North Carolina - The Tar Heels find themselves in a similar position to Xavier. After a mostly disappointing season for a team ranked in the top 10 to start the year, UNC must beat Duke in the ACC Tournament to have a legitimate shot at going dancing. For the Heels, that would be their second shot at the top-ranked Blue Devils with their season on the line in the last week. UNC fell at home by double digits to Duke in the regular-season finale Saturday, but the Heels can redeem themselves this week in Charlotte. But first, fifth-seeded UNC must beat either Notre Dame or Pittsburgh Wednesday and get by fourth-seeded Wake Forest on Thursday. Neither of those games is a slam dunk for a team that has been inconsistent all year. Like Xavier, the main blemish on UNC's resume is its 1-11 Q1 record. Would 2-11 be enough to get the Heels an invite to the Big Dance? Given that one of the wins would be against top-ranked Duke - and considering that UNC is 7-0 vs. Q2 opponents - the answer most likely would be yes, but in reality the only way the Heels can guarantee a bid would be to win the ACC championship. A victory against Duke could be undone if several teams unexpectedly steal bids in the top conference tournaments.
Boise State - We had the Broncos in as of a week ago, and they still have a legitimate shot as the fifth seeds with a strong showing in the Mountain West Tournament. In fact, it's possible that their first tournament game, a quarterfinal matchup against fourth-seeded San Diego State Thursday in Las Vegas, could serve as a de facto play-in game since we have Boise as one of our first four out and the Aztecs as one of our last four in. Unfortunately, a loss in that game likely would leave the Broncos on the outside looking in, while San Diego State still has a pretty solid chance of receiving an invitation with a close loss. Both of these teams' hopes could be dashed if there are a few surprise teams that play their way into the NCAA field by winning conference tournaments.
Colorado State - The surging Rams seemed to be completely out of the running a month ago, but they have caught fire and managed to earn the second seed in a Mountain West Tournament that could produce up to five NCAA Tourney teams. If Colorado State wins its first game against either seventh-seeded Nevada or 10th-seeded Fresno State, the Rams would be staring at potential matchups vs. Utah State, a team many bracketologist have in their fields of 68, and either New Mexico State, Boise State or San Diego State. Of course, wins against two of those teams would make them MWC champs, so of course that's the only way they can ensure getting a ticket to the Dance. It is possible, however, that a victory by the Rams against Utah State and a bad showing by either Boise State, Utah State or San Diego State might be enough to get them over the hump.
Cincinnati - The Bearcats' only guaranteed path to get them into the field of 68 is winning the Big 12 Tournament, a daunting proposition since they are haunted by their 1-11 Q1 record. Upon further review, however a look at the tournament bracket indicates that there may be another way. Assuming that Cincy knocks off Oklahoma State in its opening-round matchup, the Bearcats are in line to face a pair of NCAA locks in fifth-seeded Iowa State and fourth-seeded BYU. Victories against those Quad 1 opponents likely would set up a semifinal showdown against top-seeded and third-ranked Houston. So, perhaps knocking off two Q1 teams and playing a competitive game against Houston would be enough, pending of course what happens in other conference tournaments.
Our current seed projections are what we think the seedings should be, not what we expect the Selection Committee to do. We will present two sets of seedings prior to the official announcement on Selection Sunday - what we think the field should be and what we expect the field to be as determined by the Selection Committee.
StatLogic Sports Projected NCAA Tournament Seedings
1 - Duke, Auburn, Houston, Florida
2 - Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan State, St. John's
3 - Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kentucky, Arizona
4 - Maryland, Clemson, Purdue, Wisconsin
5 - Illinois, Texas A&M, St. Mary's, Louisville
6 - Missouri, BYU, Marquette, Kansas
7 - MIchigan, UCLA, Oregon, Mississippi
8 - Gonzaga, Memphis, Mississippi State, UConn
9 - Creighton, Georgia, Arkansas, New Mexico
10 - Baylor, VCU, Ohio State, West Virginia
11 - Vanderbilt, Oklahoma
First Four Participants (at-large):
Indiana, Utah State, San Diego State, Texas
Stat-Logic Sports NCAA Basketball Power 75
ast of March 11, 2025
Rank | Team | Rating |
1 | Duke | 100.00 |
2 | Auburn | 99.78 |
3 | Houston | 99.52 |
4 | Florida | 99.11 |
5 | Tennessee | 98.36 |
6 | Alabama | 98.20 |
7 | Michigan State | 96.58 |
8 | Texas Tech | 96.35 |
9 | St. John's | 96.21 |
10 | Iowa State | 95.91 |
11 | Maryland | 95.89 |
12 | Arizona | 95.16 |
13 | Missouri | 94.95 |
14 | Kentucky | 94.91 |
15 | Wisconsin | 94.89 |
16 | Texas A&M | 94.66 |
17 | Purdue | 94.44 |
18 | Clemson | 94.18 |
19 | Marquette | 93.56 |
20 | Illinois | 93.49 |
21 | St. Mary's | 93.47 |
22 | BYU | 93.36 |
23 | Michigan | 93.26 |
24 | Mississippi | 93.03 |
25 | Mississippi State | 93.00 |
26 | Kansas | 92.90 |
27 | Louisville | 92.81 |
28 | Gonzaga | 92.73 |
29 | UCLA | 92.46 |
30 | Oregon | 92.45 |
31 | Uconn | 92.13 |
32 | Creighton | 91.80 |
33 | Vanderbilt | 91.45 |
34 | Baylor | 90.85 |
35 | Ohio State | 90.78 |
36 | Georgia | 90.42 |
37 | Memphis | 90.28 |
38 | Oklahoma | 90.08 |
39 | VCU | 90.00 |
40 | New Mexico | 89.68 |
41 | Arkansas | 89.49 |
42 | Texas | 89.28 |
43 | West Virginia | 88.96 |
44 | Indiana | 88.89 |
45 | Utah State | 88.76 |
46 | Xavier | 88.52 |
47 | Boise State | 88.47 |
48 | Cincinnati | 88.34 |
49 | North Carolina | 88.02 |
50 | Villanova | 87.89 |
51 | San Diego State | 87.82 |
52 | SMU | 87.20 |
53 | UC San Diego | 87.19 |
54 | Nebraska | 87.19 |
55 | Colorado State | 86.50 |
56 | Wake Forest | 86.02 |
57 | Kansas State | 85.91 |
58 | Penn State | 85.86 |
59 | Northwestern | 85.58 |
60 | USC | 85.18 |
61 | Drake | 85.09 |
62 | Iowa | 84.84 |
63 | Rutgers | 84.71 |
64 | South Carolina | 84.69 |
65 | Pittsburgh | 84.44 |
66 | McNeese State | 84.24 |
67 | Irvine | 84.23 |
68 | Santa Clara | 84.19 |
69 | Minnesota | 84.04 |
70 | Nevada | 83.94 |
71 | Dayton | 83.90 |
71 | Arizona State | 83.84 |
73 | TCU | 83.65 |
74 | San Francisco | 83.63 |
75 | North Texas | 83.55 |
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