It's that time of year, the stretch of the college basketball season during which not every loss is a bad loss for some NCAA Tournament bubble teams. But it's also the time of year when an upset or blowout loss can be devastating.
For example, Arkansas probably strengthened its postseason resume with a close loss at top-ranked Alabama Wednesday in which the Razorbacks actually held the lead in the final three minutes. Vanderbilt could have made a similar statement at Kentucky, but the over-achieving Commodores were drilled by the Wildcats, who made an argument of their own to be considered for a No. 3 seed by recording a 21-point win
Nebraska would be the example of a bad, potentially catastrophic loss. The Cornhuskers lost by 17 as a small favorite on the road against a Penn State team that has been plummeting in the rankings for the past several weeks. Meanwhile, West Virginia needed a home win against a Cincinnati team on the outside looking in, and the Mountaineers held on for a 62-59 victory. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated, and it turned into a horrific beat for anyone who had WVU -3.5 as the Bearcats buried two threes in the final 10 seconds and had one final look at an open three to tie the game on the buzzer.
That's right, Cincy nearly scored nine points in 10 seconds. Desperate teams do amazing things, and sometimes the pressure paralyzes a team in a must-win situation trying to close out what should be an easy win. That's something to keep in mind when handicapping games during the final weeks of the regular season.
Let the madness begin!
SMU, one of our first two teams out, also made a statement with a 24-point road win against a bad and collapsing Notre Dame team. North Carolina, another of our first four out, also took care of business with a 24-point throttling of a cooked NC State squad at home. While those victories didn't change either team's situation, at least they both are still in the mix. Losses would have been catastrophic.
Oregon likely removed Iowa from life support once and for all with a two-point road win, but the Ducks tried almost as hard as West Virginia to blow what appeared to be a sure thing. And Gonzaga put a lid on any bubble talk regarding their postseason chances by throttling Washington State, 84-63, in Pullman.
Utah State simply beating a fading and overvalued San Jose State squad probably wouldn't have meant much, but their ridiculous 48-point home win definitely sent a loud message that they belong in the field, and we concur. Mountain West-rival Boise State is barely on the outside looking in according to our numbers, and the Broncos came through with an eight-point win at home over a red-hot New Mexico team that we have penciled in as a nine seed.
Getting back to the SEC, we have Arkansas pretty securely in the field at the moment, but the Razorbacks definitely still have their doubters given their 4-9 league record in the nation's best conference. But we still have Oklahoma and it's 3-10 SEC mark hanging on by a thread, so Arkansas appears safe at the moment. The Hogs also are playing their best ball of the season, while the Sooners definitely are not.
Arkansas still has plenty of time to convince the NCAA Selection Committee with games against likely NCAA-participants Texas, Missouri and Mississippi State still on the horizon. Depending on how those contests play out, the March 4 game at Vanderbilt, another bubble squad, might determine the postseason fate of both teams barring a miracle SEC Tournament run by either.
Oklahoma, on the other hand, has lost five straight after beating Vandy by 30 at home Feb. 1. Granted, four of those losses came against teams that will be high tourney seeds, so only the loss to LSU as a seven-point favorite really hurt, but the Sooners' remaining schedule includes four teams that figure to be in the NCAA Tournament. They probably need to win at least two, and maybe three, of those contests to feel good about their chances.
Big Ten Nebraska seemed pretty safely locked in before Wednesday's abomination at Penn State. Before that, the Huskers had won five of their previous six contests, with good wins over Ohio State, Oregon and Illinois as well as a competitive loss to a Maryland team that is blazing a path toward the top of the rankings. The Huskers should be fine as long as they don't suffer an upset loss against Minnesota or Iowa during their last four games. They could balance a loss against one of them with a win vs. Michigan or at Ohio State, and three wins would leave them in great shape.
As for Thursday's slate, its is heavy with good mid-major matchups but not much that likely would impact the NCAA Tournament bubble. Maryland hosts USC, and if the Trojans hope to make a last surge to get in the conversation, that would be a great place to start. The Terps have been one of the hottest teams in the country since Jan. 1. They are 9-2 in their last 11 outings and are starting to inch toward four- or three-seed territory. WIs against Michigan and Michigan State down the stretch likely would get them there.
Friendly Daily Reminder
When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through a stringent set of rules and parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts, you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.
Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so as we strive to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide suggest parlay options that are strong bets and don't quite make the cut for us as recommended selections. We also may present other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.
Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering between 55 and 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 2/20
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
N/A
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 2/20
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
Jacksonville State -250 vs. New Mexico State (69%) win probability
StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 2/20
Jacksonville State/Campbell money line parlay at +102
Parlay City
While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.
Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 266-95 (73.8%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they were 31-2.
Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 2/20
Jacksonville State - LOSS
Campbell - LOSS
Eastern Kentucky - LOSS
Middle Tennessee State - LOSS
Florida Atlantic - LOSS
Northern Colorado - WIN
UC Davis - WIN
Appalachian State - WIN
NBA:
N/A
StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 2/20
Monmouth +7.5 at Hofstra - WIN
Charleston money line -110 at Northeastern - WIN
USC +12.5 at Maryland - LOSS
Pacific +15.5 at San Francisco - WIN
Loyola Marymount +11.5 at Santa Clara - LOSS
Maine money line -118 at Albany - LOSS
Bryant money line -110 at Vermont - LOSS
Central Connecticut -11 at Chicago State - LOSS
North Alabama +7.5 at Lipscomb - LOSS
UC San Diego - 12 at Cal Poly SLO - WIN
Campbell -4.5 at NC A&T - LOSS
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:
760-583-19 (56.6%)
Feb. 20 Record - 4-7
Feb. 19 Record: 8-8
Feb. 18 Record: 3-6
Feb. 17 Record: 3-1
Feb. 16 Record: 5-2
Feb. 15 Record: 23-14-2
Feb. 14 Record: 5-2
Feb. 13 Record: 9-5
Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1
Feb. 11 Record: 11-3
Feb. 10 Record: 4-0
Feb. 9 Record: Off Day
Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1
Feb. 7 Record: 1-3
Feb. 6 Record: 7-8
Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1
Feb. 4 Record: 9-8
Feb. 3 Record: 8-5
Feb. 2 Record: 3-3
Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1
Jan. 31 Record: 6-3
Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1
Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1
Jan. 28 Record: 13-7
Jan. 27 Record: 8-1
Jan. 26 Record: 0-4
Jan. 25 Record: 21-17
Jan. 24 Record: 3-4
Jan. 23 Record: 8-6
Jan. 22 Record: 7-10
Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1
Jan. 20 Record: 6-3
Jan. 19 Record: 2-4
Jan. 18 Record: 20-14
Jan. 17 Record: 6-4
Jan. 16 Record: 15-6
Last 7 days: 51-40-2 (56.0%)
Last 35 days: 317-230-10 (58.0%)
Last 69 days: 615-447-17 (57.9%)
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