As the college basketball season progresses, it almost seems like the NCAA Tournament bubble picture actually gets murkier before it actually comes into focus. And sometimes it doesn't come into focus at all until we are holding the final brackets in our hands.
The ebbs and flows of the long college hoops season dictate that some teams appearing to be dead in the water in January inevitably will find their way late in the season, but still early enough to make a run at the dance. Meanwhile, others that appeared to be no-brainers to qualify just a few weeks earlier disappear from the picture entirely. And then there are the teams that come out of nowhere during conference tourney play to eliminate one of the available at-large spots at the last-possible moment.
There also are the teams that bob up and down in the surf, searching for that elusive fish called consistency while doing just enough to keep their heads above water. Sometimes those teams simply need to find their way into the field and anything can happen.
That's what makes college basketball - especially this time of year - so exciting for the average fan and so frustrating to those of us who bet on the games. But there are always signs that can give us an edge if we are watching closely and staying true to our numbers. There are teams that will never find the consistency they look for, teams that have stopped playing for their coaches, teams in the midst of difficult travel stretches filled with tough games and teams that are set up to fail after pulling off a huge upset or earning a dramatic, draining win.
There are so many factors that it can be overwhelming and confusing for the average fan looking to win some money betting on games. That's why we are here, to help narrow the focus, point out the opportunities and recommend only the picks that we know are the best based on two decades of proven success.
Tonight's slate is much bigger and better than last night's, but that doesn't always mean there are more opportunities or that we should bet more money or games. In fact, it's often quite the opposite.
However, it's getting late early and becoming crunch time for some teams still hoping to find their way into the madness that is March. Tonight's strong slate of games offers several matchups that could have postseason implications.
Villanova at Connecticut 6:30 p.m. EST
Connecticut has won the last two NCAA titles, but this year the Huskies have been that team bobbing up and down in the water. Once a top 10 squad, Connecticut has free fallen to No. 27 in our most recent Power 75. The Huskies have followed up big wins with bad losses and vice versa all year long, never quite finding their game. Tonight they host Villanova as 9-point favorites coming off a horrific loss to Seton Hall.
We have Villanova at No. 47 in our latest Power 75, and on the outside of the Tourney field looking in. The Wildcats can't afford anymore losses, and a win on the road against a team like UCONN might get them back in the conversation. Villanova is 15-11 and had been playing much better of late before a 13-point loss at Providence Feb. 15. The Friars are much tougher at home than on the road, so while the result wasn't that surprising, the margin of victory was.
We don't really think playing for Danny Hurley is all that fun when things aren't going great. That's just a hunch, but after probably getting lambasted by their coach the last few day sin practice, it's possible that UConn comes out and throttles Villanova tonight. However, with the Wildcats playing for their lives and the Huskies universally despised among the rest of the teams in the BIG EAST, it seems likely that Connecticut will get Nova's absolute best effort tonight.
Based on what we've seen and how beaten down the Huskies must feel after what has been a difficult season, the 9 points just appear to be too many. We give the edge to the Wildcats to cover in this one, but with some banged up players and the inconsistency shown by both teams, that is not a recommended pick.
Purdue at Michigan State 7 p.m. EST
Earlier this season, Michigan State looked like it had all the makings of an old-school MSU squad that fit the coaching style of Tom Izzo to perfection and might be primed for a deep NCAA Tourney run. As has happened frequently in the past several years, though, the Spartans have fallen on harder times as the season has progressed and dropped in our Power 75 Rankings to No. 12 after looking like a potential No. 2 NCAA Tournament seed not that long ago.
Purdue also was rolling earlier in the year despite losing two-time NCAA Player of the Year Zach Edey to the NBA. It appeared as though the Boilermakers' talented, but often volatile, guards finally had come into their own and maybe the lack of preseason expectations had worked to their advantage.
Both of these teams have fallen on tough times recently, though, as Purdue enters tonight's game at 11-4 in Big Ten play, a half game behind the Spartans, and having dropped its last two games. Michigan State had lost three of its previous four contests before what appeared to be a convincing 14-point win at Illinois. Another team that started fast before faltering recently, the IIllini missed their final 18 shots in that game over the final 8:30 as MSU outscored them by 18 in the second half to steal the victory. The point is that neither of these teams is playing its best, but they both are in the running for a No. 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and are chasing a surprising Michigan team at the top of the Big Ten Heat. So this is a big one.
Michigan State is a consensus 3.5-point favorite at home in a game we see as a one-possession game with the teams separated by about a single point. Given the ups and downs both teams have experienced this season, we would not recommend this game as one to bet on but do give the Boilers the edge getting 3.5 points in what should be an even affair.
Oklahoma at Florida 7 p.m. EST
We don't have a strong opinion on this game with the Gators favored by 14.5 at home, but it's a huge contest for Oklahoma, a team that has dropped to 3-9 in America's toughest league after starting the season with 13 straight wins. The Sooners dropped their first four SEC contests after that hot start and enter tonight's matchup in the midst of a four-game skid and on the verge of falling out of the NCAA Tournament field. We have the Sooners as our second-to-last team in right now and ranked 49th, and while a win to Florida, a likely No. 1 or 2 seed, wouldn't be a death blow, it would give the Selection Committee one more reason to elevate a surging team like Villanova or a strong mid-major like Boise State into the field. It's not a must win for Oklahoma, but the Sooners must be competitive and can't get blown out.
Kansas at BYU 9 p.m. EST
Two teams that appear to be securely in the NCAA Tournament Field but have been on a steady decline over the season's second half meet in Provo. Kansas, once thought to be a No. 2 seed, may have dropped into five-seed territory after and awful road loss at Utah Feb. 15. Meanwhile, the Cougars who began the year with wins in eight of their first 10 games, now are 17-8 overall and 8-6 in the Big 12.
There's nothing wrong with that in the tough Big 12, but they are one of our last four teams in the tourney right now, and Kansas also has fallen to 8-6 in league play after going 3-4 in its last seven outings. A win for the Cougars would provide a big boost to their postseason resume, while the Jayhawks really need to right the ship as they continue to look like the dysfunctional team we saw at times last year.
BYU is a 3-point favorite at home even though our numbers strongly favor Kansas. Those numbers aren't seeing the team we watch on a daily basis, though, and this is a no-bet game for us even though we give the edge to the Jayhawks to cover the spread.
Illinois at Wisconsin 8:30 p.m. EST
Illinois started the year like gangbusters and appeared destined to be a team to beat in the Big Ten with a shot at a No. 2 NCAA Tournament seed. But after a 7-1 start, Illinois has proven to be an enigma, going 4-6 in the last 10 games. They capped that stretch by missing 18 straight shots to close out a home loss against Michigan State Feb. 15.
Tonight the Illini look to rebound in a tough environment against a Wisconsin team that we have as a No. 3 seed and that is outperforming its numbers on a regular basis. The Badgers have won four in a row and 12 of their past 14 contests to move within a game of second-place Michigan State and two of first-place Michigan in the Big Ten.
They are favored by 4 tonight in what absolutely has to be a bounce-back game for Illinois. We see this as a very close win for the hosts, but simply cannot trust our money with or against an Illini team that can beat or lose to anybody right now.
Friendly Daily Reminder
When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through a stringent set of rules and parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts, you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.
Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so as we strive to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide suggest parlay options that are strong bets and don't quite make the cut for us as recommended selections. We also may present other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.
Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering between 55 and 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 2/18
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
N/A
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 2/18
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
Miami Ohio money line -200 at Eastern Michigan (68% win probability) - LOSS
StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 2/18
N/A
Parlay City
While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.
Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 256-89 (74.2%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they were 31-2.
Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 2/18
Miami Ohio - LOSS
Toledo - WIN
Austin Peay - LOSS
Texas Tech - LOSS
Kent State - WIN
NBA:
N/A
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:
748-568-19 (56.8%)
Feb. 18 Record: 3-6
Feb. 17 Record: 3-1
Feb. 16 Record: 5-2
Feb. 15 Record: 23-14-2
Feb. 14 Record: 5-2
Feb. 13 Record: 9-5
Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1
Feb. 11 Record: 11-3
Feb. 10 Record: 4-0
Feb. 9 Record: Off Day
Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1
Feb. 7 Record: 1-3
Feb. 6 Record: 7-8
Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1
Feb. 4 Record: 9-8
Feb. 3 Record: 8-5
Feb. 2 Record: 3-3
Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1
Jan. 31 Record: 6-3
Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1
Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1
Jan. 28 Record: 13-7
Jan. 27 Record: 8-1
Jan. 26 Record: 0-4
Jan. 25 Record: 21-17
Jan. 24 Record: 3-4
Jan. 23 Record: 8-6
Jan. 22 Record: 7-10
Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1
Jan. 20 Record: 6-3
Jan. 19 Record: 2-4
Jan. 18 Record: 20-14
Jan. 17 Record: 6-4
Jan. 16 Record: 15-6
Last 7 days: 56-34-3 (62.2%)
Last 33 days: 305-215-10 (58.7%)
Last 67 days: 603-432-17 (58.3%)
StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 2/17
Texas A&M +2.5 at Mississippi State - LOSS
Purdue +3.5 at Michigan State - LOSS
Butler +7 at Xavier (5.28) - LOSS
Illinois +4 at Wisconsin (1.18) - LOSS
LSU money line -145 vs. South Carolina (2.9) - WIN
Kansas +3 at BYU (KU -2.15) - LOSS
Fresno State +19 at San Diego State (16.91) - LOSS
Colorado State money line -165 vs. Nevada (2.64) - WIN
Villanova +9 at UConn (7.32) - WIN
Comentários