Well, it's about time.
Finally a Super Sunday of more - and better - college basketball matchups.
While we don't have 150 games to choose from like a typical regular-season Saturday, on this Sunday we have about 25 contests on the slate. While it would be great to see maybe more like 100 games on a Saturday and 60-70 on a Sunday, this is a step in the right direction. We'll take it.
Welcome to the dog days of the 2024-25 NCAA hoops season. Some teams have quit and are playing out the string. Other teams are fighting to get into the NCAA Tournament, while some are battling just to get into their own conference tourneys. Some teams hate their coach and are ready for spring break. Other teams are trying to save their coach's job and play just a little more basketball. And still other teams have reached the point of just playing for the fun of it and praying for a miracle run to something special.
Of course, we also have tired and run down officials who are approaching 100 games officiated across multiple time zones this season. Just like the players, they can be physically tired, sick, mentally exhausted and just ready for a break. Tired, and frustrated refs don't make good refs.
Unfortunately, a break isn't coming anytime soon as Selection Sunday still is three weeks away. Also on the horizon are conference tournaments, Championship Week and the Big Dance. There is light at the end of the tunnel for sure, but for many teams the next few weeks are the most important of their seasons, so it would be nice to have officials who are at the top of their games, too.
That's not happening, which is scary since they are generally pretty inconsistent even when they aren't worn down.
Then, of course, we have the conference interests in these games to consider. More teams in the NCAA Tournament means more money, and for the non-power conferences that payout can be incredibly beneficial. Just keep an eye on this when a team in a mid-major conference needs a win to help secure a postseason spot or improve its resume.
People will tell you this stuff doesn't happen. People are wrong. I've seen it. I've lived it. It happens.
So, there is a lot going on right now when it comes to college hoops handicapping. It's never easy, but these next few weeks always seem even more challenging. We've seen a recent dip in our own numbers. Well, not a dip as much as more inconsistency in the performance of our picks, edges and parlay options.
We've had some really good days mixed in with some so-so days, but we consider so-so days to be bad days. It doesn't make us happy, but when you look at big picture, we are a documented 56.5 percent on our betting edges, which aren't even recommended picks, since the start of the season. That number climbs to around 58 percent for last two months. And our parlay options are 73 percent since we began posting them in early January. And dating back to the beginning of the football season, our recommended picks have kept winning at better than a 70-percent clip.
Last week our betting edges were 41-39, by far our worst seven-day stretch of the year, but still winning at better than a 50-percent rate. That's not nearly acceptable to us, but it's all part of the process, and at the end of the day, our goal is to win you money long term with our recommended picks and provide other solid options for you to choose from that also can allow you to be profitable.
We've been very successful helping our clients and followers achieve that level of success for two decades now, and this year isn't any different. While we will beat ourselves up over a so-so week, it's always helpful for us to take a step back, analyze all the variables that are in play, check our work and stay on track. We recommend that any bettor take a similar approach every now and then. A little reset can be extremely helpful, especially when you're looking at 175 games to choose from in a two-day span with the most exciting part of the season just ahead.
While we may slow down a little and spend a few days being even more selective than usual about the recommended and other information we present here, nothing changes. These ebbs and flows are normal, and over the past two decades we've always come out on top.
You will, too, if you stay the course and follow our lead. Good luck!
Like we did Saturday, we will present info on the early games first and update this page throughout the day, so please check back.
Friendly Daily Reminder
When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through a stringent set of rules and parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts, you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.
Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so as we strive to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide suggest parlay options that are strong bets and don't quite make the cut for us as recommended selections. We also may present other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.
Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering between 55 and 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 2/23
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
N/A
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 2/23
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
N/A
StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 2/23
N/A
Parlay City
While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.
Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 284-104 (73.2%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they were 31-2.
Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 2/23
North Texas - WIN
Colgate - LOSS
Bucknell - WIN
Purdue - LOSS
Memphis - WIN
Wichita State - WIN
Marist - WIN
Xavier - WIN
UCLA - WIN
NBA:
N/A
StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 2/23
St. John's money line -180 vs. UConn - WIN
Temple +9.5 at UAB - LOSS
Rider +7 at Mount St. Mary's - PUSH
Marist -7.5 vs. Niagara - LOSS
Memphis -8 vs. Florida Atlantic - WIN
UCF money line -150 vs. Utah - WIN
Arizona State +6.5 at Kansas State - WIN
Drake money line +110 at Northern Iowa - WIN
Green Bay +14.5 at Youngstown State - WIN
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:
771-587-19 (56.8%)
Feb. 23 Record: 6-2=1
Feb. 22 Record: 13-13
Feb. 21 Record: 5-2
Feb. 20 Record: 4-7
Feb. 19 Record: 8-8
Feb. 18 Record: 3-6
Feb. 17 Record: 3-1
Feb. 16 Record: 5-2
Feb. 15 Record: 23-14-2
Feb. 14 Record: 5-2
Feb. 13 Record: 9-5
Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1
Feb. 11 Record: 11-3
Feb. 10 Record: 4-0
Feb. 9 Record: Off Day
Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1
Feb. 7 Record: 1-3
Feb. 6 Record: 7-8
Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1
Feb. 4 Record: 9-8
Feb. 3 Record: 8-5
Feb. 2 Record: 3-3
Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1
Jan. 31 Record: 6-3
Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1
Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1
Jan. 28 Record: 13-7
Jan. 27 Record: 8-1
Jan. 26 Record: 0-4
Jan. 25 Record: 21-17
Jan. 24 Record: 3-4
Jan. 23 Record: 8-6
Jan. 22 Record: 7-10
Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1
Jan. 20 Record: 6-3
Jan. 19 Record: 2-4
Jan. 18 Record: 20-14
Jan. 17 Record: 6-4
Jan. 16 Record: 15-6
Last 7 days: 42-39-1 (51.9%)
Last 38 days: 341-247-11 (58.0%)
Last 72 days: 634-462-18 (57.9%)
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