We have another good-sized slate of NCAA college basketball games Wednesday, highlighted by a battle at the top of the Big Ten between red-hot Maryland and Michigan State. The winner of that game, for the time being at least, seems likely to lock into a No. 4 NCAA Tournament seed.
The Terrapins at one point today were a 5-point home favorite, but that number has dipped back to 4. It seems as though that is the sharp threshold, so maybe Maryland is worth a look on the money line or as a money-line parlay option? We just think the matchup is too close to call and give the Terps just under a 3-point edge. That's probably one we will watch with great interest but won't bet or recommend a pick.
Oklahoma has a chance to almost secure a tourney bid tonight with a home win against Kentucky, while another SEC team, Vanderbilt, is in a similar position on the road at Texas A&M.
Kentucky is a bit banged up and has tremendous metrics despite up-and-down play lately. The Wildcats don't have much to play for, but the Sooners do, obviously. Oklahoma seems to be a popular pick as a 3-point home dog. Our numbers don't concur and have the Wildcats as almost four points better, but we see the advantage Oklahoma might have as a desperate team at home. Too many red flags for us.
Vandy has a challenging task on the road against a Texas A&M team hoping to find its way to a No. 2 NCAA Tournament seed and coming off a pair of losses. The Aggies are 7.5-point favorites, which is similar to what our model projects, but we can't see the more-talented home team losing in this situation. Texas A&M is a top money-line parlay option for us.
Neither Villanova nor Indiana, teams that definitely have hopes for tourney bids but have some work to do, can afford to stumble tonight. The Wildcats travel up the Jersey Turnpike to take on a fading Seton Hall team as an 8.5-point favorite. We see Villanova, which has been playing better of late, as a strong money-line parlay option and have them as 9.6 points better.
IU, on the other hand, is home facing an unpredictable Penn State team giving up 5.5 points. The Hoosiers seem to have found something since coach Mike Woodson announced his resignation, and they look an awful lot like a team that might barely sneak in to the NCAA Tournament, win a First Four game and upset a few teams before being sent home. Indiana is not lacking in talent, and the crowd in Bloomington will be riled up. This is a great money-line parlay bet on a home team that we feel may cover the spread easily despite having them as a 5.17-point favorite.
We believe that Arkansas has moved into the field with its recent strong play, but the Razorbacks and their opponent tonight, Texas, can't afford to lose. The Longhorns have slowly been dropping toward the edge of the bubble, while Arkansas has been surging. The line has moved from Texas getting 5.5 points to a 2.5-point spread. We have Arkansas as a 2.12 home favorite and think they are the better team and have been playing much better than Texas. The Razorbacks on the money line are one of tonight's betting edges. The home crowd should carry the Hogs.
To close the evening, we have a key Mountain West matchup between first-place Utah State and Boise State. The home-standing Broncos are fifth in the league at 11-5, but they are within shouting distance of the visitors from Utah (14-3). We have Utah State safely in the tournament field and Boise barely out. This is a huge game for the Broncos, who are favored by 4.5. That number seems too big to us, as we have Boise as a 1.95-point favorite, mainly because the Broncos are home. Utah State is very good, and it seems like most of these late-night MWC clashes go down to the wire. This one should be no different.
Friendly Daily Reminder
When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through a stringent set of rules and parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts, you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.
Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so as we strive to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide suggest parlay options that are strong bets and don't quite make the cut for us as recommended selections. We also may present other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.
Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering between 55 and 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 2/26
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
N/A
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 2/26
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
BYU money line -190 vs. Arizona State (68% win probability) - WIN
StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 2/26
N/A
Parlay City
While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.
Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 301-113 (72.7%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they were 31-2.
Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 2/26
Indiana - WIN
Wake Forest - LOSS
UNC Asheville - LOSS
BYU - WIN
SMU - WIN
American - LOSS
Texas A&M - LOSS
Northern Iowa - WIN
St. John's - WIN
Villanova - WIN
South Alabama - WIN
NBA:
N/A
StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 2/26
Arkansas money line -165 vs. Texas - WIN
Dayton -4 at Rhode Island - WIN
Georgetown +14.5 at UConn - WIN
Mississippi +13 at Auburn - LOSS
St. Bonaventure +6.5 at St. Joseph's - LOSS
Kansas State +4.5 at UCF - WIN
Georgia State -3 at Coastal Carolina - LOSS
Memphis -12.5 vs. Rice - LOSS
George Washington +5 at Loyola Chicago - LOSS
Bradley -4.5 at Valparaiso - WIN
St. John's -5.5 at Butler - WIN
Wake Forest -7.5 at Virginia - LOSS
Utah State +4.5 at Boise State - LOSS
SMU -3.5 at California - WIN
Holy Cross +11 at Colgate - WIN
Bucknell -2 at Loyola Maryland - WIN
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edge Record:
795-606-19 (56.7%)
Feb. 26 Record: 9-7
Feb. 25 Record: 10-6
Feb. 24 Record: 5-2
Feb. 23 Record: 6-2-1
Feb. 22 Record: 13-13
Feb. 21 Record: 5-2
Feb. 20 Record: 4-7
Feb. 19 Record: 8-8
Feb. 18 Record: 3-6
Feb. 17 Record: 3-1
Feb. 16 Record: 5-2
Feb. 15 Record: 23-14-2
Feb. 14 Record: 5-2
Feb. 13 Record: 9-5
Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1
Feb. 11 Record: 11-3
Feb. 10 Record: 4-0
Feb. 9 Record: Off Day
Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1
Feb. 7 Record: 1-3
Feb. 6 Record: 7-8
Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1
Feb. 4 Record: 9-8
Feb. 3 Record: 8-5
Feb. 2 Record: 3-3
Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1
Jan. 31 Record: 6-3
Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1
Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1
Jan. 28 Record: 13-7
Jan. 27 Record: 8-1
Jan. 26 Record: 0-4
Jan. 25 Record: 21-17
Jan. 24 Record: 3-4
Jan. 23 Record: 8-6
Jan. 22 Record: 7-10
Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1
Jan. 20 Record: 6-3
Jan. 19 Record: 2-4
Jan. 18 Record: 20-14
Jan. 17 Record: 6-4
Jan. 16 Record: 15-6
Last 7 days: 52-39-1 (57.1%)
Last 41 days: 364-263-11 (58.1%)
Last 74 days: 658-477-18 (58.0%)
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