In about 30 hours it all will be over.
Conference champions will have been crowned, automatic NCAA Tournament bids will have been determined and the entire field of 68 will have been unveiled.
It's one of the best days of the year, but also is bittersweet.
Bittersweet for the teams and players as some will see their dreams realized while others will see it all come to an end in a matter of minutes. Just like that. Some teams may not continue playing in lesser postseason tournaments, so that means the college careers of a number of Division I athletes hang in the balance as a roomful of adults decide their fate.
And for those of us who follow college basketball closely, it also is a bittersweet time. We look forward with great anticipation to the unveiling of the tournament field and spend countless hours during the weeks leading up to Selection Sunday playing with numbers, watching games and trying to figure out what those adults in that room might be thinking.
There's a nervous anticipation throughout the day as the final conference champions are crowned and then we agonize during each Selection Show commercial break, begging them to "just spit it out" instead of making the announcement so dramatic.
But then it's over.
We match up our brackets with theirs, gloating over the successes and whining about the snubs. Over the ensuing few days we will watch every NCAA Tournament preview show, read everything we can get our hands on and dissect every possible tidbit of information about all 34 initial matchups that we can find.
In that moment, though, we take a deep breath and reflect a bit on the hundreds of games we have analyzed during the past two weeks and the long season that is behind us. This year at StatLogic Sports we have analyzed more than 2,000 college basketball games and presented our betting edges for more than 1,600 of them. It's a labor of love, and fortunately it has proven to be fairly lucrative this season, but we take pride in the amount of time, effort and care we put into what we do.
There is nothing more exciting than the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship. Period. The National Hockey League Stanley Cup Playoffs come close, but because you have to win four best-of-seven game series to capture the Cup, the process is much more drawn out. Game 7s bring similar drama to what the NCAA Tournament provides, but nothing compares to a one-and-done format in which one misstep can end seasons and careers.
That's why it's called March Madness, and why so many of us drop everything we are doing, call in sick to work and stuff our faces with unhealthy food for four straight days as the first two rounds unfold.
While this is the most exciting time of the year for college hoops aficionados, the excitement also is tempered by a bit of sadness as it means the season soon will come to an end.
But that sadness doesn't last long. There's work to be done. We scan the bracket one more time, finish our deep breath and get ready to keep grinding over the best six weeks of the season. We can worry about the season coming to and end in April.
This is our time!
Taking a look at Friday's Bubble Watch Special results, it's hard to fathom that Boise State is not in the tournament after another big Mountain West Tournament win, this time by three points against top-seed and NCAA Tournament-lock New Mexico in the semifinals. Meanwhile, also in the MWC, red-hot Colorado State dealt a blow to Utah State's postseason hopes with an 83-82 victory. While the Rams have leaped up the rankings in recent weeks, they still have work to do. But if they can beat Boise in the championship game and steal a bid, it might come at the expense of a MWC rival such as Utah State or San Diego State.
Dayton's tourney dreams were shattered by a 73-68 loss to solid and underrated St. Joseph's. Meanwhile, VCU continued to steamroll the Atlantic 10 competition with a 76-59 win against St. Bonaventure. The Rams have to be a lock to receive an invitation to the Dance no matter what at this point.
Metro Atlantic regular-season champion Quinnipiac had its season brought to a crushing halt by Iona, 81-73.
Texas' run for the roses finally came to an end in the SEC Tournament with an 11-point loss to Tennessee, but it appears as though the Longhorns are safely in at this point. North Carolina's fate is less clear, however, as the Tar Heels fell to a Duke team missing its best player in an excruciating three-point game that sadly was decided by a lane violation.
UNC got hot at the right time, but still only has one win against a Quad 1 opponent. Will name recognition alone be enough to get the Tar Heels an invite? We don't think they deserve it, but put their chances at about 50/50 at this point - pending the number of bids that are stolen this weekend.
Here are Saturday's Bubble Watch Specials, featuring teams whose tourney status remains uncertain:
Loyola Chicago vs. VCU - Atlantic 10 at 1:00 p.m. EDT
Boise State vs. Colorado State - Mountain West at 6:00 p.m. EDT
UC Irvine vs. UC San Diego - Big West at 9:40 p.m. EDT
Automatic Qualifiers as of March 15
15 down & 16 to go
Lipscomb
High Point
UNCW
Robert Morris
Drake
St. Francis
SIUE
Wofford
Omaha
Troy
Gonzaga
American
McNeese
Montana
Bryant
Friendly Daily Reminder
When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through a stringent set of rules and parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts, you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.
Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so as we strive to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide suggest parlay options that are strong bets and don't quite make the cut for us as recommended selections. We also may present other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.
Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering between 55 and 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 3/15
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
TBD
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 3/15
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
TBD
StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 3/15
St. John's/Houston money line parlay at -109
Parlay City
While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.
Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 384-138 (73.6%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they were 31-2. We closed out college hoops regular season on a 21-3 run with our parlay options.
Postseason Money Line Parlay Options: 18-4
Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 3/15
Bryant
Duke
Houston
St. John's
Akron
Grand Canyon
Liberty
check back for more
NBA:
TBD
StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 3/15
Mount St. Mary's +4.5 vs. Iona
Princeton +7.5 vs. Yale (5.0)
St. Joseph’s money line -120 vs. George Mason
Tennessee +5.5 vs. Auburn (1.98)
UAB +2.5 vs. North Texas
Memphis -8.5 vs. Tulane (13.25)
UC Irvine +6 or higher vs. UC San Diego
check back for more
Dogs of the Day
These are the teams that we believe have the best shot at winning outright as underdogs. These are NOT recommended picks.
Mount St. Mary's +160
UAB +125
Postseason College Basketball Record:
Parlay Options: 18-4 (81.2%)
Betting Edges: 23-16-1 (59.9%)
Bonus Picks: 5-2 (71,4%)
Last 7 Days: 57-42-1 (57.6%)
Last 55 days: 484-346 (58.3%)
Postseason Betting Edge Log
March 14: 4-3-1
March 13: 11-8
March 12: 8-5
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edges
Final Regular-Season Record:
875-662-19 (56.9%)
March 9 Record: 7-7
March 8 Record: 10-6
March 7 Record: 9-5
March 6 Record: 8-8
March 5 Record: 7-5
March 4 Record: 13-6
March 3 Record: 3-1
March 2 Record: 7-3
March 1 Record: 17-14
Feb. 28 Record: 6-5
Feb. 27 Record: 4-3
Feb. 26 Record: 9-7
Feb. 25 Record: 10-6
Feb. 24 Record: 5-2
Feb. 23 Record: 6-2-1
Feb. 22 Record: 13-13
Feb. 21 Record: 5-2
Feb. 20 Record: 4-7
Feb. 19 Record: 8-8
Feb. 18 Record: 3-6
Feb. 17 Record: 3-1
Feb. 16 Record: 5-2
Feb. 15 Record: 23-14-2
Feb. 14 Record: 5-2
Feb. 13 Record: 9-5
Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1
Feb. 11 Record: 11-3
Feb. 10 Record: 4-0
Feb. 9 Record: Off Day
Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1
Feb. 7 Record: 1-3
Feb. 6 Record: 7-8
Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1
Feb. 4 Record: 9-8
Feb. 3 Record: 8-5
Feb. 2 Record: 3-3
Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1
Jan. 31 Record: 6-3
Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1
Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1
Jan. 28 Record: 13-7
Jan. 27 Record: 8-1
Jan. 26 Record: 0-4
Jan. 25 Record: 21-17
Jan. 24 Record: 3-4
Jan. 23 Record: 8-6
Jan. 22 Record: 7-10
Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1
Jan. 20 Record: 6-3
Jan. 19 Record: 2-4
Jan. 18 Record: 20-14
Jan. 17 Record: 6-4
Jan. 16 Record: 15-6
Final 7 days 57-38 (60.0%)
Final 52 days: 461-330 (58.3%
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