Conference Championship Thursday for college basketball is one of the most underrated sports days of the year, and this year it didn't disappoint.
Clemson ended any remote NCAA Tournament hopes SMU might have still had in a close ACC Tournament game. Marquette hurt Xavier's chances in the BIG EAST Tournament with a hard-fought, two-point comeback win. Also in the BIG EAST, Creighton turned a close game against Villanova into a double-digit blowout, effectively squashing the Wildcats' postseason hopes.
Texas Tech edged Baylor in a Big 12 thriller, while the Oklahoma-Kentucky matchup may have been the game of the year. Oklahoma appeared to have secured one of the all-time epic comeback victories on a clutch shot with five seconds left only to watch Kentucky sprint down the floor for a dramatic buzzer-beater to send the Sooners home heartbroken.
Boise State probably cemented its tournament invite with a decisive win against San Diego State, pushing the Aztecs closer to the edge in the process. Also in the Mountain West, Colorado State continued its furious push for the postseason by beating Nevada, while Utah State also stated its case strongly with a double-digit win against UNLV.
And in a game that had no bubble implications, Chucky Hepburn hit a 16-foot buzzer-beater after a crazy sequence as Louisville held off Stanford in the ACC.
Meanwhile, the SEC, possibly the best conference in college hoops history, also produced one of the all-time great days of basketball Thursday. In addition to the Oklahoma-Kentucky white-knuckler, Texas probably clinched an invitation to the Big Dance with its win double-overtime win against Texas A&M.
What will Friday hold as we continue the March to Selection Sunday?
Here are Friday's Bubble Watch Specials, featuring teams whose tourney status remains uncertain:
St. Bonaventure vs. VCU - Atlantic 10 at 11:30 a.m. EDT
St. Joseph's vs. Dayton - Atlantic 10 at 7:30 p.m. EDT
Texas vs. Tennessee - SEC at 3:30 p.m. EDT
North Carolina vs. Duke - ACC at 7:00 p.m. EDT
Boise State vs. New Mexico - Mountain West at 9:30 p.m. EDT
Many bracketologists have UNC in the field at this point, but it's still iffy. A win today against a Duke team likely to rest an injured Cooper Flagg would seal the deal for the Tar Heels. With Flagg playing, we have Duke as nearly a 12-point favorite. The current point spread for that game has the Blue Devils favored by 6.5 or 7.
For most of the season, many pundits said that VCU had to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament to earn an NCAA bid, but that ship has sailed. The Rams should be in no matter what, setting up the underrated A-10 to potentially produce a bid-stealer. Surging Dayton also has made an appearance in some bubble watches, so a win against a tough St. Joseph's team Friday would keep that momentum going.
Boise State may have gotten in by beating San Diego State, but a win today vs. a New Mexico team that we have as a No. 9 tourney seed would make it a no-brainer for the Broncos. Like Boise, Texas should be in, but an upset of probably top-two seed Tennessee also would allow them to breathe easier on Selection Sunday.
Automatic Qualifiers as of March 14
14 down & 17 to go
Lipscomb
High Point
UNCW
Robert Morris
Drake
St. Francis
SIUE
Wofford
Omaha
Troy
Gonzaga
American
McNeese
Montana
Friendly Daily Reminder
When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through a stringent set of rules and parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts, you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.
Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so as we strive to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide suggest parlay options that are strong bets and don't quite make the cut for us as recommended selections. We also may present other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.
Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering between 55 and 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 3/14
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
TBD
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 3/14
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
TBD
StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 3/14
TBD
Parlay City
While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.
Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 384-138 (73.6%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they were 31-2. We closed out college hoops regular season on a 21-3 run with our parlay options.
Postseason Money Line Parlay Options: 13-3
Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 3/14
UAB
Alabama
Quinnipiac
Duke
Houston
NBA:
TBD
StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 3/14
George Mason money line -180 vs. George Washington
Middle Tennessee +2 vs. Jacksonville State (-2.1)
Florida Atlantic money line -155 vs. Tulane
Mississippi +11.5 vs. Auburn (7.14)
Missouri +9.5 vs. Florida (4.73)
Mount St. Mary's +9 vs. Merrimack
Creighton +4.5 vs. UConn (0.8)
Cal Poly SLO +10.5 vs. UC Irvine
Dogs of the Day
These are the teams that we believe have the best shot at winning outright as underdogs. These are NOT recommended picks.
Middle Tennessee State +115
Creighton +170
Postseason College Basketball Record:
Parlay Options: 13-3 (75.0%)
Betting Edges: 19-13 (59.4%)
Bonus Picks: 4-2 (66.7%)
Last 7 Days: 60-44 (57.6%)
Last 54 days: 480-343 (58.3%)
Postseason Betting Edge Log
March 13: 11-8
March 12: 8-5
NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edges
Final Regular-Season Record:
875-662-19 (56.9%)
March 9 Record: 7-7
March 8 Record: 10-6
March 7 Record: 9-5
March 6 Record: 8-8
March 5 Record: 7-5
March 4 Record: 13-6
March 3 Record: 3-1
March 2 Record: 7-3
March 1 Record: 17-14
Feb. 28 Record: 6-5
Feb. 27 Record: 4-3
Feb. 26 Record: 9-7
Feb. 25 Record: 10-6
Feb. 24 Record: 5-2
Feb. 23 Record: 6-2-1
Feb. 22 Record: 13-13
Feb. 21 Record: 5-2
Feb. 20 Record: 4-7
Feb. 19 Record: 8-8
Feb. 18 Record: 3-6
Feb. 17 Record: 3-1
Feb. 16 Record: 5-2
Feb. 15 Record: 23-14-2
Feb. 14 Record: 5-2
Feb. 13 Record: 9-5
Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1
Feb. 11 Record: 11-3
Feb. 10 Record: 4-0
Feb. 9 Record: Off Day
Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1
Feb. 7 Record: 1-3
Feb. 6 Record: 7-8
Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1
Feb. 4 Record: 9-8
Feb. 3 Record: 8-5
Feb. 2 Record: 3-3
Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1
Jan. 31 Record: 6-3
Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1
Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1
Jan. 28 Record: 13-7
Jan. 27 Record: 8-1
Jan. 26 Record: 0-4
Jan. 25 Record: 21-17
Jan. 24 Record: 3-4
Jan. 23 Record: 8-6
Jan. 22 Record: 7-10
Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1
Jan. 20 Record: 6-3
Jan. 19 Record: 2-4
Jan. 18 Record: 20-14
Jan. 17 Record: 6-4
Jan. 16 Record: 15-6
Final 7 days 57-38 (60.0%)
Final 52 days: 461-330 (58.3%
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