StatLogic Sports Daily Hoops Hustle: NCAA Sweet 16 Projections with Edges & Parlay Options & Dogs of the Day

With every passing round of the 2025 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament, the lines get a little tighter and the edges are a little harder to find. That fact, paired with there being fewer games on the slate, means that we just aren't going to have as many betting options for those who come to the website.

It doesn't matter, though, because instead of forcing it so that we have more content or you can have more action, we will continue to provide only information that we have great confidence in. This little postseason college basketball hot streak we have been on has been fun and lucrative, but that doesn't mean we go looking for picks and edges that aren't there as a heat check. The goal is, was and always will be to provide only the best information that gives our customers and followers the best possible odds of being profitable over the long term.

There's no reason to jeopardize all the great work we've done this season - especially in the last month - or to risk the money we've banked to this point just to satisfy a need or an urge. That wouldn't make sense, and it's also why we don't have any baseball picks or edges on Opening Day 2025 and won't have any recommended MLB picks for several weeks. We don't begrudge anyone who wants a little entertainment on this first day of the MLB season placing a couple of bets for fun or pizza money, but anyone who tells you that they have some sort of edge or credible information that others don't have access to is simply dishonest.

But getting back to college hoops and looking at the next two evenings of tremendous Sweet 16 matchups, Texas Tech is the only college team that fully meets our criteria to be a money line parlay option. That said, although the numbers are tight, we like the matchup of Michigan State's rebounding ability and 3-point defense vs. Mississippi Friday. We would consider the Spartans as a straight money line bet as well as a potential MLP partner, especially with an NBA team like Oklahoma City that we feel very strongly about against a beat-up Memphis unit tonight.

By our numbers, the Big Ten continues to be undervalued as a group, and it's not a stretch to think that Maryland, Michigan and Purdue all might cover the spread as pretty significant underdogs the next two nights.

Our numbers favor Arizona to cover the 9.5 points vs. a Duke team we have rated as the best in the country, but the Blue Devils have been defying the numbers for the last six weeks to the point that we don't see an edge there. Duke reminds us of the UConn juggernaut that covered the spread six straight times en route to its second straight national championship a year ago. At the end of the day, Arizona's success is largely dependent on Caleb Love's offensive performance, and we just don't see a team of Duke's caliber letting one guy dictate the outcome of a game in a situation like this.

Love tends to be an all-or-nothing player, so we should know pretty early on if he's on his game and the Wildcats have a legitimate chance to cover the spread or win outright. Keep an eye on that one for a potential in-game live betting opportunity.

Our numbers and eyes have loved BYU for the past month or more, but it's hard to envision Alabama losing to a team that is going to try to out run, out gun and out three the Crimson Tide. No spread bet there, but we do have a pretty strong feeling about Alabama as a parlay option. Houston also appears very unlikely to lose but pretty likely to give up a backdoor cover based on recent sloppy play with leads and inconsistent free-throw shooting.

Also based on its performance in close games this year and our numbers, Maryland looks like a group that is likely to put up a great fight and come up just short on the scoreboard. And finally, given the tenacious defense that Tennessee plays, a third win for Kentucky vs. the Vols is something that doesn't appear to be in the cards.

Friendly Daily Reminder

When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through a stringent set of rules and parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts, you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.

Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so as we strive to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide suggest parlay options that are strong bets and don't quite make the cut for us as recommended selections. We also may present other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.

Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering around 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.

StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 3/27 & 3/28

Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability

N/A

StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 3/27

All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability

Houston Cougars & Minnesota Timberwolves money line parlay at -148 (65% probability) - WIN

StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 3/27

Alabama & OKC money line parlay at -120 - WIN

Parlay City

While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.

Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 384-138 (73.6%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they were 31-2. We closed out college hoops regular season on a 21-3 run with our parlay options.

Postseason CBB Money Line Parlay Options: 49-7. We opened the postseason on a 29-4 run. The last 17 college basketball parlay options have been winners (March 21-28).

Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 3/27 & 3/28

Texas Tech - WIN

Alabama - WIN

Houston - WIN

Tennessee - WIN

Top survivor pick: Alabama (winner)/Tennessee (winner)

NBA:

Oklahoma City Thunder - WIN

Sacramento Kings - WIN

Minnesota Timberwolves - WIN

StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 3/27 & 3/28

projected point differential in parentheses

Maryland +7 vs. Florida (4.89) - LOSS

Michigan +9.5 vs. Auburn (7.10) - LOSS

Michigan State money line -170 vs. Mississippi - WIN

All Stat-Logic Sports NCAA Sweet 16 Basketball Projections 3/27 & 3/28

for informational purposes; these are not recommenced picks or edges

Arizona (+5.55) vs. Duke - we don't see this as an edge given Duke's recent play

BYU (+5.26) vs. Alabama

Arkansas (+6.04) vs. Texas Tech

Maryland (+4.89) vs. Florida

Michigan (+7.10) vs. Auburn

Michigan State (-3.53) vs. Mississippi

Purdue (+6.53) vs. Houston

Kentucky (+4.03) vs. Tennessee

Dog of the Day

These are the teams that we believe have the best shot at winning outright as underdogs. These are NOT recommended picks.

Maryland +270 vs. Florida

Postseason College Basketball Record:

CBB Parlay Options: 49-7 (87.5%)

Betting Edges: 53-31-1 (63.1%)

Bonus Picks: 11-3 (78.6%)

Last 7 Days: 24-12 (66.7%)

Last 62 days: 514-363 (58.6%)

Postseason Betting Edge Log

March 28: 1-1

March 27: 0-1

March 23: 6-2

March 22: 5-1

March 21: 6-1

March 20; 3-4

March 18: 3-2

March 16: 1-2

March 15: 5-2

March 14: 4-3-1

March 13: 11-8

March 12: 8-5

NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edges

Final Regular-Season Record:

875-662-19 (56.9%)

March 9 Record: 7-7

March 8 Record: 10-6

March 7 Record: 9-5

March 6 Record: 8-8

March 5 Record: 7-5

March 4 Record: 13-6

March 3 Record: 3-1

March 2 Record: 7-3

March 1 Record: 17-14

Feb. 28 Record: 6-5

Feb. 27 Record: 4-3

Feb. 26 Record: 9-7

Feb. 25 Record: 10-6

Feb. 24 Record: 5-2

Feb. 23 Record: 6-2-1

Feb. 22 Record: 13-13

Feb. 21 Record: 5-2

Feb. 20 Record: 4-7

Feb. 19 Record: 8-8

Feb. 18 Record: 3-6

Feb. 17 Record: 3-1

Feb. 16 Record: 5-2

Feb. 15 Record: 23-14-2

Feb. 14 Record: 5-2

Feb. 13 Record: 9-5

Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1

Feb. 11 Record: 11-3

Feb. 10 Record: 4-0

Feb. 9 Record: Off Day

Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1

Feb. 7 Record: 1-3

Feb. 6 Record: 7-8

Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1

Feb. 4 Record: 9-8

Feb. 3 Record: 8-5

Feb. 2 Record: 3-3

Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1

Jan. 31 Record: 6-3

Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1

Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1

Jan. 28 Record: 13-7

Jan. 27 Record: 8-1

Jan. 26 Record: 0-4

Jan. 25 Record: 21-17

Jan. 24 Record: 3-4

Jan. 23 Record: 8-6

Jan. 22 Record: 7-10

Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1

Jan. 20 Record: 6-3

Jan. 19 Record: 2-4

Jan. 18 Record: 20-14

Jan. 17 Record: 6-4

Jan. 16 Record: 15-6