StatLogic Sports Daily Hoops Hustle: NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Edition

Yesterday's first batch of Elite Eight picks, parlays, edges & other info went out only to clients and was posted after the fact on Twitter/X. That's going to happen more and more going forward as we continue to build our business and have an official launch in the next 60 to 90 days.

Heading into yesterday's games, it was pretty clear that the market had adjusted to the "chalkiness" of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament, as the favorites suddenly were overvalued according to our numbers.

Still, we couldn't determine an edge in the Duke-Alabama game despite our line showing Duke as a 2.17-point favorite and a point spread of -7.5. Duke has been on a UConn-like run through the tournament, stacking double-digit victories even against quality opponents, and Alabama was coming off a record-setting performance from 3-point land.

The common wisdom was that the Crimson Tide would come back to earth, at least a little bit, and Duke would be much better defending the three than BYU was. Still, it was enough of a question mark for us to rule out any potential betting edge in that game. Another hot-shooting night would keep Alabama in the game, but the Blue Devils certainly had the ability to blow them out. Both Duke and Florida were money-line parlay options for us paired with the NBA's Miami Heat, but we also gave Texas Tech, but we also gave the point-spread edge at +7.5 vs. the Gators.

Here is a look at our projected numbers for all the Elite Eight games, including Sunday's matchups. Keep in mind that we consider other factors before making one side or another a "recommended" pick or giving one side a "betting edge."

Alabama vs. Duke (-2.17)

Texas Tech vs. Florida (-4.26)

Michigan State vs. Auburn (-3.29)

Tennessee vs. Houston (-1.58)

Friendly Daily Reminder

When you read through today's information, keep in mind that we are extremely selective with our recommended picks as they need to have at least a 60-percent win probability or better according to our proprietary algorithm and also must pass through a stringent set of rules and parameters that we consider for each matchup. In our daily posts, you will find our recommended bets as well as games that don't quite make the cut to be recommended and which might make solid parlay options and other games where we believe there are edges favoring one side.

Parlays always will have a lower win probability than straight bets, but there are times that a parlay will meet our requirements and be recommended. We realize that many sports bettors prefer not to bet very short odds that approach and exceed -200, so as we strive to provide as much information and help as many people as possible, we do provide suggest parlay options that are strong bets and don't quite make the cut for us as recommended selections. We also may present other games that have betting edges but also don't quite meet our high standards to be recommended picks.

Our college basketball betting edges have performed well, hovering around 58 percent over a large sample size since early November, and our parlay options have been extremely successful as you can see below.

StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 3/29 & 3/30

Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability

SUNDAY N/A

StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for 3/29 & 3/30

All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability

Duke & Miami Heat money line parlay at -128 - WIN (64% win probability)

SUNDAY N/A

StatLogic Sports Bonus Bets for 3/29 & 3/30

Florida & Miami Heat money line parlay at +102 - WIN

SUNDAY N/A

Parlay City

While we usually don't recommend parlays - mainly because it decreases the win probability while increasing the potential payout - for those who aren't interested in laying the juice, combining two of our money line recommended picks or pairing one of our recommended picks with other picks we think have betting edges often can be very strong plays as well. They just may not be strong enough to meet the criteria for us to recommend them, though, and are "bet at your own risk" like the other games we post that have betting edges.

Our potential money line parlay games from Jan. 4-6 were 19-1 ... they have gone 384-138 (73.6%) since Jan. 4 and were 18-2 Jan. 14-15. They were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they were 31-2. We closed out college hoops regular season on a 21-3 run with our parlay options.

Postseason CBB Money Line Parlay Options: 51-7. We opened the postseason on a 29-4 run. The last 19 college basketball parlay options have been winners (March 21-28).

Potential CBB Money Line Parlay Options for 3/29 & 3/30

Florida - WIN

Duke - WIN

Top survivor picks: Florida/Auburn

NBA:

Miami Heat - WIN

StatLogic Sports NCAA College Basketball Betting Edges 3/29 & 3/30

projected point differential in parentheses

Texas Tech +7.5 vs. Florida (4.26) - WIN

All Stat-Logic Sports NCAA Sweet 16 Basketball Projections 3/29 & 3/30

for informational purposes; these are not recommenced picks or edges

Alabama vs. Duke (-2.17)

Texas Tech vs. Florida (-4.26)

Michigan State vs. Auburn (-3.29)

Tennessee vs. Houston (-1.58)

Dog of the Day

These are the teams that we believe have the best shot at winning outright as underdogs. These are NOT recommended picks.

Michigan State +200

Postseason College Basketball Record:

CBB Parlay Options: 51-7 (87.9%)

Betting Edges: 54-31-1 (63.5%)

Last 7 Days: 22-10 (68.8%)

Last 62 days: 515-363 (58.7%)

Bonus Picks: 12-3 (80.0%)

Postseason Betting Edge Log

March 29: 1-0

March 28: 1-1

March 27: 0-1

March 23: 6-2

March 22: 5-1

March 21: 6-1

March 20; 3-4

March 18: 3-2

March 16: 1-2

March 15: 5-2

March 14: 4-3-1

March 13: 11-8

March 12: 8-5

NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edges

Final Regular-Season Record:

875-662-19 (56.9%)

March 9 Record: 7-7

March 8 Record: 10-6

March 7 Record: 9-5

March 6 Record: 8-8

March 5 Record: 7-5

March 4 Record: 13-6

March 3 Record: 3-1

March 2 Record: 7-3

March 1 Record: 17-14

Feb. 28 Record: 6-5

Feb. 27 Record: 4-3

Feb. 26 Record: 9-7

Feb. 25 Record: 10-6

Feb. 24 Record: 5-2

Feb. 23 Record: 6-2-1

Feb. 22 Record: 13-13

Feb. 21 Record: 5-2

Feb. 20 Record: 4-7

Feb. 19 Record: 8-8

Feb. 18 Record: 3-6

Feb. 17 Record: 3-1

Feb. 16 Record: 5-2

Feb. 15 Record: 23-14-2

Feb. 14 Record: 5-2

Feb. 13 Record: 9-5

Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1

Feb. 11 Record: 11-3

Feb. 10 Record: 4-0

Feb. 9 Record: Off Day

Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1

Feb. 7 Record: 1-3

Feb. 6 Record: 7-8

Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1

Feb. 4 Record: 9-8

Feb. 3 Record: 8-5

Feb. 2 Record: 3-3

Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1

Jan. 31 Record: 6-3

Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1

Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1

Jan. 28 Record: 13-7

Jan. 27 Record: 8-1

Jan. 26 Record: 0-4

Jan. 25 Record: 21-17

Jan. 24 Record: 3-4

Jan. 23 Record: 8-6

Jan. 22 Record: 7-10

Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1

Jan. 20 Record: 6-3

Jan. 19 Record: 2-4

Jan. 18 Record: 20-14

Jan. 17 Record: 6-4

Jan. 16 Record: 15-6