StatLogic Sports Daily Hoops Hustle: Win or Lose, Our NCAA Basketball Hot Streak Ends Tonight

March is gone, and with it so is the Madness. We are sad to see it go.

But at least April brought us two great basketball games in the NCAA Final Four, one of which turned to be on the short list of all-time memorable NCAA Tournament comebacks. Some even called it the best Final Four game ever played, but instead of giving it a label, let's just enjoy that the tournament so many had complained about brought us a pair of outstanding semifinal matchups.

And we should have one more tonight as Florida, now our top power-ranked team, takes on Houston, which had been our No. 1 team for much of February before Duke took over. The Cougars pulled off a miracle win over the then-No. 1 Blue Devils in the second semifinal Saturday, wearing them down with their suffocating defense before turning the heat up one more notch trailing by double digits with time running short.

Houston didn't quite do enough to pull ahead of Duke in our rankings based on numbers alone, but there is little doubt, given Auburn's inconsistent play from late February through March and into April, that Florida, Houston and Duke are in some order the top three college basketball teams for the 2024-25 season. And the truth is that Auburn probably should be tossed into that conversation, too, given the Tigers' dominance from November through January and considering that their top player likely was not at 100 percent for the loss to Florida.

As has been the case throughout this tournament, Florida's depth prevailed Saturday, with the Gators pulling away late in the game as Auburn got tired and Walter Clayton took over. College basketball's Steph Curry did it once again, burying shots from long range, short range and blowing past defenders to get to the rim for acrobatic layups.

Tonight, Florida, one of the highest-tempo and highest-scoring teams in the country, meets its polar opposite in Houston, the nation's top defensive squad - and one of the slowest-paced teams in America - for the national championship. The Gators wear their opponents down by attacking them in waves with their depth, talent and breakneck tempo. Meanwhile, the Cougars wear people down with a suffocating defense and by contesting every pass, shot and loose ball all over the court.

Florida enters the contest at 35-4, having won the championship in the nation's toughest conference and on an 11-game winning streak. The Gators have won 18 of their last 19 games, covering the spread in 14 of those contests. Houston is 35-4 and went 19-1 in the Big 12 before winning the conference tournament. The Cougars have won 18 straight and a mind-boggling 32 of their last 33 following a 4-3 start.

Yet, for some reason, people keep sleeping on Houston. Granted, the Cougars have let some teams come back in games recently after sprinting to big leads, but they never lose their intensity and are tenacious and compete at a higher level than their opponents for 40 minutes every time out. That approach allowed them to wear Duke down and come back to win Saturday despite trailing by nine with 2:06 left and six with 42 seconds remaining.

From a betting perspective, the fact that Houston is just 6-7 against the spread in its last 13 games and 21-18 overall certainly is worth considering, but the bottom line is that they won all 13 of those contests and Florida is favored by just one tonight. It's basically a coin flip, with Florida's -115 odds at most books giving the Gators an implied win probability of 53.49 percent. One book has the game as a pick 'em and another has the Cougars favored by a point. We have Florida as 0.69 points better than Houston on a neutral floor, while KenPom has Houston winning 72-71, Torvik has the Cougars winning by four and Haslametrics tabs Houston as being nearly two points better than the Gators.

Perhaps the most interesting wager on the championship game is the total.

EVERYONE said to bet the under in the Duke-Houston matchup Saturday. That game opened at a total of either 136.5 or 137 at most books, and like it would be be a pretty easy under winner for most of the evening, Duke's collapse and the chaotic final two minutes pushed the total to 137 at the final buzzer. The Cougars typically are an under team, with 24 of their 39 contests finishing below the projected total, while Florida has gone 21-18 to the over.

Before Saturday's victory against Auburn went under the total of 158.5, Florida's previous 11 games all had gone over. Tonight's number is between 140.5 and 141.5, depending on the book. It opened at 141.5 at DraftKings and has fallen below that mark at most shops. The pregame total has been set at or above 140.5 just four times in games involving Houston this season, including only once in the past 29 games. Interestingly, three of those contests went over the total.

Meanwhile, only one of Florida's games this season has had a total at 140.5 or lower, and that was the Dec. 4 matchup with Virginia, which flew over the 134 total that was set for that matchup. The next-closest Gator total was 142.5 March 16 vs. Tennessee, another game that went over.

There is no science behind this, but based on that evidence and with Saturday's Houston-Duke matchup of two slow-paced teams making it to 137, we would lean toward the over tonight at 140 or 140.5. As long as the game stays within a 10-point margin, there will be fouling to the bitter end.

Our model does provide information on totals, but historically we have found that given the volatility of the last few minutes of college basketball games resulting from inconsistent officiating and unpredictable coaching decisions, paired with the possibility that an inordinate number of free throws could push a total way over its pace, most games simply don't meet our stringent criteria for being "recommended" selections. And we almost never would be comfortable recommending an under bet in college hoops, although there my be games with perceived edges toward the under.

We're Red Hot, but We Got Nothing to "Recommend"

So for tonight's game, basically we've got nothing in terms of recommended picks. We hate to say that since it's the biggest college basketball game of the year, but we have the game as a literal tossup and don't make a habit of recommending college hoops totals. That said, we would give an edge to the over, so for fun that can be our bonus bet on this special occasion.

Even though we've been red hot in college basketball dating back to Championship Week, we won't compromise our integrity even for one night by throwing out a recommended bet just to make people happy. That would be contrary to our approach to sports betting. We work hard to build confidence among our clients and followers and wouldn't want to compromise that in any way. Most people wouldn't even know that we had lowered our standards for a big game, and if we won we'd probably be heroes, but the reputation we have built over more than two decades, our promise to always do what's best for our clients and followers and our commitment to full transparency won't allow us to do that.

Remember that our recommended picks are only the very best selections for a given day based on the information provided by our proprietary algorithm. The only picks we give out are the ones that have better than a 60-percent win probability and that meet a stringent set of requirements that are analyzed specifically for each game. Superstar Picks have a win probability of 70 percent or better, and All-Star picks have a 60-percent or higher win probability.

Our last 10 recommended selections have won, dating to March 11, and over the past two-plus decades those highest-level picks have won regularly at a rate of 65 to 70 percent, providing a return on investment to our clients at a rate that equals or exceeds most available investment opportunities. We have used our algorithm as a tool to help people win over the long term and understand the importance of being disciplined and sticking to our plan if they hope to realize long-term gains.

During that time, we also realized that our next level of picks - the ones that don't quite make the cut to be recommended - also win at a rate that equals or is higher than what many professional gamblers are able to attain. The problem with those picks, however, is that they are more volatile and can be susceptible to more ups and downs in the form of longer winning and losing streaks that many people may not be able to tolerate financially.

So, as a business that prides itself on transparency, responsible wagering and long-term profitability, we refuse to lower our standards and recommend those picks to the average sports gambler. But we also understand that our information has tremendous value to many people and is better and more transparent than much of what is out there, so we wanted to make it available to the masses to help grow our business and also to allow grown adults to pick and choose what information they want to use and which bets to make.

These are "bet at your own risk" wagers, but we feel strongly that the information we provide on all levels is superior to almost anything currently available to the casual gambler, so while we don't recommend a high-volume approach for most people, at least we can help some of the folks who crave that type of action be successful, too.

We also are aware that not every bettor - especially the ones who bet in smaller denominations - is thrilled about winning only a few dollars on bets that have higher "juice" or shorter odds. While winning and realizing a long-term positive ROI should be the goal of anyone who bets, we also found that the games our analysts and our algorithm feel most strongly about - and also carry juice maybe some can't or won't tolerate - can be combined with our other stronger and recommended bets to win at a very high rate as money line parlay options with more palatable odds.

Again, this is not a recommended approach and it's not often that we provide parlays as recommended bets. But if we can give people the option of placing bets with more tolerable odds while providing better information than they can get elsewhere - and letting them choose which bets they are comfortable making - we feel that we are providing an extremely valuable service that hopefully prevents folks from getting scammed by low-character touts and traveling down a road that might lead to financial ruin.

If providing more of the information at our fingertips can help prevent others from making the types of mistakes many novice and uneducated bettors make - while hopefully educating them about the importance of discipline and gambling responsibly - we feel that it is a win for everyone and fits nicely within the realm of our business model.

In addition to the parlay options, throughout the year we've provided additional information that is better than what usually is available to the general public in the form of "betting edges." Our algorithm and analysts often indicate that there are games in which one side has an edge worth considering but that don't quite meet the standards of our recommended picks. We began providing this information to clients and followers as well, letting them choose what they wanted to do with it.

Our results on all levels speak for themselves as does our transparency. Check out our recent results below, tonight's information, edges and projections and our amazing full-season college basketball results below:

Our Red Hot College Hoops Postseason

Postseason CBB Money Line Parlay Options: 56-7 (88,9%)

We opened the postseason on a 29-4 run. The last 24 college basketball parlay options have been winners (March 21 - April 2).

Regular Season Parlay Options:

They went 384-138 (73.6%) Fr 18-2 Jan. 14-15 until early March. From Jan. 4-6 they were

19-1 and were 14-1 overall Feb. 4-5 (college hoops went 12-0 those two days). On Feb. 11 they were 13-0, and for Feb. 11-13 combined they were 31-2. We closed out college hoops regular season on a 21-3 run with our parlay options.

For the regular season and postseason, our hoops parlay options have gone 440-185 (75.2%).

Postseason College Basketball Record:

CBB Parlay Options: 56-7 (88.9%)

Postseason CBB Betting Edges: 58-31-1 (65.2%)

     Last 7 Betting Days: 17-5 (77.3%)

     Last 64 Betting Days: 519-363 (58.8%)

Postseason CBB Bonus Picks: 14-3 (82.4%)

Final Regular-Season CBB Betting Edge Record:

875-662-19 (56.9%)

Overall CBB 2024-25 Betting Edge Record:

933-693-20 (57.4%)

StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for 4/7:

Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability

TBD

StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks 4/7:

All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability

TBD

StatLogic Sports Bonus Bet for 4/7

CBB: Houston vs. Florida OVER 140 or 140.5

Potential Money Line Parlay Options for 4/7

NBA: Detroit Pistons

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers

Stat-Logic Sports NCAA Basketball Projections: 4/7

for informational purposes; these are not recommenced picks or edges

Houston +1 vs. Florida (0.69)

Postseason Betting Edge Log

April 2: 1-0

April 1: 3-0

March 29: 1-0

March 28: 1-1

March 27: 0-1

March 23: 6-2

March 22: 5-1

March 21: 6-1

March 20; 3-4

March 18: 3-2

March 16: 1-2

March 15: 5-2

March 14: 4-3-1

March 13: 11-8

March 12: 8-5

NCAA Basketball Season Betting Edges

Final Regular-Season Record:

875-662-19 (56.9%)

March 9 Record: 7-7

March 8 Record: 10-6

March 7 Record: 9-5

March 6 Record: 8-8

March 5 Record: 7-5

March 4 Record: 13-6

March 3 Record: 3-1

March 2 Record: 7-3

March 1 Record: 17-14

Feb. 28 Record: 6-5

Feb. 27 Record: 4-3

Feb. 26 Record: 9-7

Feb. 25 Record: 10-6

Feb. 24 Record: 5-2

Feb. 23 Record: 6-2-1

Feb. 22 Record: 13-13

Feb. 21 Record: 5-2

Feb. 20 Record: 4-7

Feb. 19 Record: 8-8

Feb. 18 Record: 3-6

Feb. 17 Record: 3-1

Feb. 16 Record: 5-2

Feb. 15 Record: 23-14-2

Feb. 14 Record: 5-2

Feb. 13 Record: 9-5

Feb. 12 Record: 8-7-1

Feb. 11 Record: 11-3

Feb. 10 Record: 4-0

Feb. 9 Record: Off Day

Feb. 8 Record: 17-17-1

Feb. 7 Record: 1-3

Feb. 6 Record: 7-8

Feb. 5 Record: 14-8-1

Feb. 4 Record: 9-8

Feb. 3 Record: 8-5

Feb. 2 Record: 3-3

Feb. 1 Record: 20-19-1

Jan. 31 Record: 6-3

Jan. 30 Record: 13-5-1

Jan. 29 Record; 15-12-1

Jan. 28 Record: 13-7

Jan. 27 Record: 8-1

Jan. 26 Record: 0-4

Jan. 25 Record: 21-17

Jan. 24 Record: 3-4

Jan. 23 Record: 8-6

Jan. 22 Record: 7-10

Jan. 21 Record: 12-6-1

Jan. 20 Record: 6-3

Jan. 19 Record: 2-4

Jan. 18 Record: 20-14

Jan. 17 Record: 6-4

Jan. 16 Record: 15-6