Back at it tonight after the Astros let us down again yesterday. One night after their manager blew it for us, their best pitcher of the season's second half decided not to be so good.
Hunter Brown had allowed just 5 earned runs throughout the month of August. Last night he gave up 5 in 5 innings. Now we move on.
Our model has one Major League Baseball All-Star Selection for tonight. Our All-Star Picks are teams that our proprietary algorithm determines to have better than a 60-percent win probability. Superstar Picks have a 70-percent or better win probability.
StatLogic Sports MLB All-Star Picks for 9/12
Milwaukee Brewers -125 at San Francisco Giants (63%) at 9:45 p.m. EDT
Montas 6-10, 4.59 ERA, 1.37 WHIP vs. Hayden Birdsong 3-5, 5.19, 1.50 WHIP
Simply put, Montas has been okay this year, but Birdsong hasn't. Montas brings pretty pedestrian standard pitching numbers into this matchup, but his ERA has been a more-respectable 3.93 over his past six outings since coming over to Milwaukee from Cincinnati. His advanced numbers (combined xFIP and XEra) are in the 4.60 range. Birdsong, on the other hand, has posted an 8.30 ERA since Aug. 1 after cruising through July with a 2.45 mark. His advanced numbers for the year are in the same range as Montas', but obviously that's after they have gone through the roof more recently. The Brewers rank among the top-10 offensive teams in MLB vs. right-handed pitchers, while the Giants are among the bottom 10. All Montas does is keep his team in games for 5 or 6 innings before turning it over to the league's second-best bullpen, which has been bolstered recently by the return of former All-Star closer Devin Williams. Birdsong would love to just make it through the fifth inning as he has failed to do so in his last six outings. San Francisco's bullpen also has been erratic and ranks in the bottom half of the league with a 3.98 ERA.
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