The Major Leage Baseball postseason has been nuts already, and we're less than two full days into it.
The Nos. 5 and 6 seeds have advanced in the American League as the Detroit Tigers continued their fairytale season and the Kansas City Royals knocked off the Baltimore Orioles, 3-1, in the Wildcard round. That's not 3 games to 1; that's 3-1 in runs over 2 games.
Baltimore, which was 24 games over .500 in July before suffering through a ridiculous series of injuries, looked to be back on track after closing the season by winning 5 of its last 6 games to finish with 91 wins. But the Orioles wasted a superb Game 1 pitching performance by Corbin Burnes in his likely final appearance in their uniform, and then for some reason went to their bullpen, which ranked at the bottom of the league from July on, in the fifth inning of Game 2.
That move worked out fine, but after the Orioles finally got on the board thanks to a fifth-inning Game 2 home run by Cedric Mullins a day after being shut down by Cole Ragans in Game 1, they somehow managed to load the based with no outs and not score. They sent their Nos. 3, 4 and 5 batters to the plate and couldn't muster a run.
Meanwhile, Kansas City, which won Game 1 despite only having two runners in scoring positions all day, would score the game-winning run with a infield hit that bounced 30 feet in the air before coming down, a broken-bat blooper and a ball up the middle that never got out of the infield.
Baltimore hit two balls that would have been home runs in 28 other ballparks during the series that ended up in outfielder's gloves. Another ball that Mullins belted in Game 1 hit the top of the right-field wall, and a couple other hard-hit balls hooked or sliced just foul.
There were two 50/50 calls in the key moments of Game 1, and Kansas City got both of them. The first one should have been a strikeout, but instead became a walk to one of baseball's fastest players. Burnes is one of the slowest pitchers delivering to home in baseball, so one pitch later there was a runner in scoring position for the team's best hiter, Bobby Witt. Witt stroked one of the team's only hard-hit balls into left field to plate the eventual game-winning run.
In the bottom of the ninth on a 3-2 pitch with no outs and a runner on first, Adley Rutschman was called out looking on another close call. The first one to Kansas City was a strike for sure, and this one was more of a tossup, but KC got both of those calls and won the game, 1-0.
In the National League, the Atlanta Braves who had to overcome a heartbreaking loss on Game 1 of a doubleheader to beat the Mets in Game 2 and qualify for the postseason Monday, predictably lost in front of a raucous San Diego crowd in Game 1 of their Wildcard series.
Meanwhile, the New York Mets, who only had to fly halfway across the country for their first playoff game at Milwaukee, used a five-run fifth inning to take a 1-0 lead in their series. New York trailed, 4-3, in the fifth when Brewers manager Pat Murphy pushed the panic button and went to his bullpen, one of the top units in the league. Milwaukee was up, 4-3, with two outs in the fifth when reliever Joel Payamps was too late covering first on what should have been an easy out. Jose Iglesias hustled all the way to the bag and dove into the base just ahead of the late-arriving pitcher.
That should have been the third out, but instead a run scored to tie the game. Four runs later the game was all but dedided.
The point is, and this MLB postseason proves it, there are no "locks" in sports. While the Padres winning as -190 favorites given Atlanta's tired bullpen and grueling travel schedule, might have been "predictable," it wasn't a blowout. No one would have expected an exhausted Mets team to beat a Milwaukee club that ran away with the NL Central title, under similar circumstances.
But if Payamps does his job and Milwaukee's bullpen comes through like it usually does, who's to say that the Brewers don't win, 4-3? And in Baltimore, if one of those 50/50 calls goes the other way, maybe the Orioles win Game 1. Or if Baltimore's big hitters knock home a run or two, maybe we are looking at Game 3 tomorrow.
Instead, the Nos. 5 and 6 seeds move on to the AL Division Series.
It's a game of inches, breaks and missed calls. That's baseball. You can "handicap a game" perfectly fine and lose. And that can happen often.
Our model leaves as little as possible to chance. And while we don't win all the time, the information we have and the strict guidelines we apply before recommending picks can protect you as much as possible from these types of scenarios. Sometimes the odds for our selections are a little short, but if the goal is to win over the long term, our proprietary algorithm gives us all the best chance of doing that.
Since we've launched this site Aug. 16, we haven't won them all, but we've kept up a winning percentage of between 67 and 70 percent while our profits have hovered between 10 and 12 units to the positive.
Give us a shot tonight.
Our All-Star MLB Postseason Selection for tonight, Oct. 2, is the San Diego Padres -118 with a 60% win probability.
Comments