After going 1-1 with our MLB All-Star Picks yesterday, we go back to the well today with the team that won for us. Remember, our All-Star Selections are our "second-tier" picks and carry a win probability of 60 percent or better. Superstar Picks have a 70 percent or higher win probability.
Check out our record for Superstar, All-Star, Bonus and Prop picks since the website launched Aug. 16. We have hovered between 67 and 70 percent for the past two months on our recommended bets, while our prop bets have gone 16-6 since the start of NFL season.
StatLogic Sports MLB All-Star Pick for 10/10
New York Yankees -139 at Kansas CIty Royals (60% win probability) at 8:08 p.m. EST
Gerrit Cole (8-5, 3.51 ERA, 1.160 WHIP) vs. Michael Wacha (13-8, 3.43, 1.207)
This one really comes down the matchup of starting pitchers. The Yankees have their ace on the mound, and although he was less than overwhelming in Game 1, he is the better and more experienced pitcher in these situations. Wacha does have some postseason experience, but he also was shaky in the ALDS opener vs. New York. Wacha probably needs to give the Royals at least 5, if not 6, innings given that KC used six pitchers yesterday. The Royals love to get into their bullpen, which has been great the second half of the season, as early as the fifth inning, but doing so tonight could be dangerous considering how taxed their pen is. Wacha actually had a slightly better ERA than Cole for the season, but Cole's advanced numbers are about a half-run per game better. Recent form shows that Cole has posted a 2.92 ERA since Sept. 1, compared to Wacha's 3.13 ERA.
On the other hand, Wacha trying to get through the powerful New York lineup a third time might be just what the doctor ordered for slumping Aaron Judge. The Yankees have the hammer here, with a Game 5 at home if they don't close it out, so Judge can relax and let the game come to him knowing that the team is in a position to close the series out despite his recent difficulties. He is 1-for-11 in the series, so It might be time to consider buying low on a Judge prop bet or two as well in this one.
New York is the better hitting team, and it's not really close, as the Yankees led MLB in OPS vs. right-handed pitchers at .777 (KC was .722) and averaged better than 5 runs per game. In the postseason, the Yankees have averaged 3.7 runs per outing compared to KC's 2.8. The Royals also managed just three total runs in their Wildcard series win vs. Baltimore and were one of the worst offensive teams in baseball during September.
New York's revamped bullpen, with Clay Holmes in a setup role and Luke Weaver closing, has not allowed a postseason run after some struggles the second half of the season. Overall, the Yankees had better bullpen numbers than Kansas City, but the Royals pen was really good late in the season. The Yankees' improvement in that area lately, however, paired with the amount of work KC's relievers had had in this series, should give New York the upper hand there as well.
If Cole performs up to his normal standards, the Yankees figure to move into the ALDS with a Game 4 win tonight.
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