Here we are; the final weekend of the Major League Baseball season!
And there still is much to be decided when it comes to the final Wildcard spots in both leagues. Mother Nature hasn't made it any easier either, washing out a pair of games between the Mets and Braves this week that likely will have to be played as a doubleheader Monday after the last scheduled games of the regular season. As we head into the final weekend, the Mets and Diamondbacks are tied for the last two National League postseason spots and hold a 1-game lead over the Braves.
Atlanta faces a Kansas City Royals team that also needs to win this weekend. The Royals and Detroit are both one win - or one more Minnesota loss - away from clinching their spots in the American League's postseason tournament. Kansas City has a tough task vs. the Braves, but the Twins host the Baltimore Orioles, who are in the playoffs but still need one more win to clinch home field for the Wildcard Round.
Baltimore won't be rolling over after winning 2 of 3 on the road vs. the Yankees. The Orioles can't afford to leave anything to chance with the Tigers hosting the historically terrible Chicago White Sox. Three Baltimore losses and three Detroit wins would give the Tigers home-field advantage for the opening postseason series.
That brings us to our MLB All-Star Selection for tonight. Remember, All-Star Picks are ones that our model has assigned better than a 60-percent win probability. Our Superstar Selections are those with a at least at 70-percent win probability.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZXMi_8bCb5VGxjPo770z6PJ-MxjBbIjisNhuIDyS3EY/edit?usp=sharinghttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZXMi_8bCb5VGxjPo770z6PJ-MxjBbIjisNhuIDyS3EY/edit?usp=sharing for our itemized picks and record since Aug. 16. We are winning at nearly a 70-percent clip since launching this website.
StatLogic Sports MLB All-Star Pick for 9/27
Detroit Tigers -175 vs. Chicago White Sox (69% win probability) at 6:40 p.m. EDT
Brenan Hanifee (1-1, 1.98 ERA, 1.171 WHIP) vs. Garrett Crochet (6-12, 3.69, 1.063)
Shop around for the best price here as we've seen it between -175 and -205. There is some intrigue to this game. White Sox interim manager Grady Sizemore cited his team's rivalry with the Tiers and said it would be "good for baseball" if he pushed back the team's ace pitcher Garrett Crochet for a day and had him start a game that Detroit needed to clinch the postseason. Crochet is one of the brightest young stars in the game and is a bona fide ace. But as well as he's pitched, the hapless White Sox stil are just 9-22 in his starts.
If there was a chance that Crochet was going to be stretched out in his last start of the year, this game might be red flagged for us, but there is no indication that anything is going to change with Chicago's overall plan for their young ace. The team said that his innings would be limiited for the rest of the season in July, and he has not gone more than 4 innings since June 30. Crochet has not thrown more than 77 pitches since July 6, and he has not eclipsed the 60-pitch mark since Aug. 9. That means he likely will be turning the game over to the league's second-worse bullpen by the fifth inning. The Tigers are going with a bullpen game. opening with Brenan Hanifee, and their relievers have an ERA that ranks fourth in MLB and is 1.21 runs per game better than Chicago's.
On top of that, the Tigers have been the hottest team in baseball since the All-Star break. They have won 11 of their last 12 games and are 16-3 in their past 19. The Tigers score 1.1 runs per game more than Chicago and allow 1.1 fewer runs. They actually have scored 4.1 runs per game in the last 10 contests, 0.1 below their season average, but still have won nine of those contests, including some improbable come-from-behind victories. Some would claim that Detroit has had an improbable run of good luck and is due for regression, but every number points to the Tigers winning this game, and you simply can't bet against the momentum they have built as the postseason approaches.
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