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It's going to be a crazy final week of the Major League Baseball season as all six wildcard berths are still up for grabs.
In the American League, the Baltimore Orioles are in the driver's seat, holding a four-game advantage over both Detroit, one of baseball's top teams the past month, and the fading Kansas City Royals. Those two teams are tied for the second and third spots, a game ahead of struggling Minnesota and two in front or the fast-charging Seattle Mariners.
The crazy thing is that the Orioles, Twins and Royals all have ben struggling, while the Tigers and Seattle are playing well. Baltimore is 3-7 in its last 10, but should have a spot nailed down in a few days thanks to an early stretch that saw them climb to 24 games over .500 on a few occasions.
Baltimore has been ravaged by injuries, but is finally getting healthy. Former gold-glove infielder Ramon Urias and All-Star Jordan Wesburg returned to the lineup over the weekend, with key bullpen parts Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb also coming back to help steady an inconsistent back end. Top-three starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez also should return soon, and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle also is working his way back. If Baltimore can hold on to the top wildcard seed with the pressure off, so many key players coming back and so many people counting them out, the Orioles might actually be lurking in the weeds ready to pull off a surprise run. A three-man rotation of Corbin Burnes, Zach Efflin and Rodgiguez can match up with anyone.
Minnesota gets a crack at the Orioles for the last three games of the season after a three-game set against the hapless Florida Marlins. Kansas city faces the Nationals and Braves, while the Tigers get to tackle Tampa Bay and the historically terrible White Sox and the Mariners play Houston and Oakland.
It seems likely that the American League race will continue right to the wire as should the NL chase.
In the National League, Arizona and the New York Mets are tied in the second and third wildcard positions with Atlanta looking up at them both and trailing by two games. The Braves and Mets start a three-game series Tuesday that could end with the Braves on the brink of elimination or with the race completely up for grabs. The Mets then finish the year against the Central Division-champion Milwaukee Brewers, while the Braves face the Royals. Arizona hosts San Francisco Monday for the first of three games before closing the year against a San Diego Padres team that has been great in the second half and currently holds a three-game advantage in the NL wildcard race.
Tonight's Stat Logic Sports All-Star Selection features the Diamondbacks, who need to keep winning, and the Giants. Our All-Star Picks are the selections that our proprietary algorithm deems to have a 60-percent or better win probability. Since launching this website on Aug. 16, our All-Star Selections have gone 29-13, good for a 69.1-percent success rate and a profit of 5.7 units. Overall, our picks are 47-20 during the past five weeks (70.1 percent), and we are up more than 10.5 units!
CLICK HERE to see all of our results since we launched on Aug. 16.
Stat-Logic Sports All-Star MLB Selection for 9/23
Arizona Diamondbacks -172 vs San Francisco Giants (68% win probability) at 9:40 p.m. EDT
Eduardo Rodriguez (3-3, 5.09 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. Hayden Birdsong (4-5, 4.74, 1.35)
Both teams have played well of late, with the Giants riding a three-game winning streak into the season's penultimate series and Arizona having won four of its last five.
The Diamondbacks continue to be one of the best offensive teams in baseball, however, having averaged 7.0 runs per game in their last five outings and nearly 6 per game in the last 10. They are second in baseball in OPS vs. right-handed pitchers, trailing only the New York Yankees, and rank among the top five in batting average vs. righties. Those year-long numbers paired with the recent offensive hot streak should be enough to propel Arizona past the Giants tonight. Forr the season, the D'Backs average 1.2 more runs per game than San Francisco.
Overall, the pitching matchup is about as even as it can be. Rodriguez's numbers have held steady throughout the year, while Birdsong's ride has been more of a roller coaster. He's posted a solid ERA below 3.30 in September, but that number soared beyond the 8.00 mark for August. Rodiguez has posted slightly better advanced numbers throughout the season.
You know what you're getting with Rodriguez, even if it's not amazing, but Birdsong is an anomaly. The D'Backs powerful offense should be enough to put this one away early in a game that also is a pretty good bet to eclipse the 8.5-run posted total.
Parlay City
Although not recommended, if you simply can't stomach the -172 juice, the following parlay is worth considering (bet at your own risk):
Diamondbacks/Buffalo Bills money line parlay at +127
Our model is just dipping its toe into the NFL and college football waters now that there is sufficient current data for the numbers to have meaning. We have Buffalo on the money line as having a 69-percent win probability.
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