The MLB season continues to wind down Tuesday night with some big games on tap as the Yankees look to clinch the American League East, the Orioles look to clinch home field in the AL Wildcard round and others look to move one step closer to postseason berths or continue to stave off elimination.
In general for Major League Baseball selections this deep into the season, our model prefers that we only use games that still have some meaning to one or both teams. That's exactly what we have for you tonight with our Superstar and All-Star selections. Our Superstar Picks are those that the model has given a win probability of 70 percent or better, while All-Star Selections carry a win probability of at least 60 percent.
Tonight, our proprietary algorithm has one of each type of pick as well as Bonus Selection. The Superstar Pick is the Cleveland Indians, while the All-Star Selection and Bonus pick both involve the Arizona-San Francisco game.
Since launching this web site Aug. 16, our Superstar Selections are 7-1, good for a .875 winning percentage and a profit of 3.2 units. Our All-Star Picks are 30-14 (.681) and have generated plus-5.68 units. Overall, including Bonus Picks, we are 48-21 (.696) and up nearly 11 units.
CLICK HERE for all the results since the site launched Aug. 16.
StatLogic Sports Superstar MLB Selection for 9/24
Cleveland Guardians -180 vs. Cincinnati Reds (73% win probability) at 6:40 p.m. EDT
Carson Spiers (5-6, 5.40 ERA, 1.512 WHIP) vs. Tanner Bibee (11-8, 3.56, 1.128)
Cleveland still has a shot at the top seed in the American League Playoffs, but the Guardians are safely in the No. 2 spot. They sit between the No. 1 Yankees and No. 3 Astros in the overall race, but have clinched the Central Division title. New York hosts Baltimore tonight with a chance to clinch the Eastern Division, so the Yankees should be going all out. Cleveland needs a win to keep pace and is playing most of its regular starters, including all of its middle-of-the-order big hitters, while sending ace Tanner Bibee to the mound.
This line actually may be a little longer than it should be and has been moving toward the Guardians all day. When we first ran the game through our algorithm you still could get Cleveland at -165. Make sure you shop around for the best price.
Bibee has been solid on the mound all year when healthy and also has posted a 3.04 ERA in September, compared to the 5.73 ERA compiled by Carson Spiers. The standard and advanced pitching numbers for the season strongly favor Bibee as well, and Cleveland has the best closer and bullpen in the game. The Guardians are going to have about a full week off between their last regular-season game Sunday and their opening playoff game, so they should be trying to make sure all their regulars are sharp by giving them a normal amount of work this week. That bodes well for them tonight.
StatLogic Sports All-Star MLB & Bonus Pick n for 9/24
Arizona Diamondbacks -142 vs. San Francisco Giants at 9:40 p.m. EDT
Logan Webb (12-10, 3.5 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (10-9, 4.86, 1.26)
Arizona came up small in a big spot last night, falling 6-3 to the Giants and dropping a half-game behind the Mets for the second National League Wildcard spot. On top of that, the Atlanta Braves have won two straight to pull within 1.5 games of the D'Backs.
That makes tonight's game huge for the Diamondbacks, who have last year's postseason experience to draw from as they send Brandon Pfaadt to the mound. Neither he nor Logan Webb has been very good in the last month or so, posting a combined ERA above 14.00, but overall Pfaadt's advanced numbers at home have been slightly better than Webb's road stats. Arizona continues to be the second-best MLB team in OPS vs. right handers this season and rank among the league's top 10 in batting average vs. righties. The Giants are 24th in MLB in OPS vs. right-handers and hit 20 points lower against them than the D'Backs.
Arizona remains baseball's highest-scoring team, and although San Francisco has the better bullpen statistically, the Giants are likely to be without the services of closer Ryan Walker, who has been spectacular since assuming that role. He has thrown 14 pitches in each of the past two days and figures to sit this one out.
Bonus Pick - Diamondbacks vs. Giants OVER 8 runs
Two struggling starting pitchers. Two below-average bullpens. The league's second-best OPS team vs. right handers. The highest-scoring team in MLB. The Giants go from being a bottom-of-the-league home run-hitting team at home to No. 2 in the National League on the road. All signs point to an over here. The total was heading toward 8.5 at many books, but if you can still find an 8 somewhere we like this as a bonus pick. It didn't make the cut to be a Superstar or Alll-Star selection, so it's not a recommended play but is considered a strong bet. Bet at your own risk!
Parlay City
While we rarely recommend parlays or teasers, we always do our homework and try to provide viable options for our customers who don't like to lay a ton of juice. For tonight, we think the following is a very good option. Bet at your own risk!
Gunnar Henderson over 1 H + R + RBI with the Cleveland Guardians at -107
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