For the first time in a while we have a Major League Baseball Superstar Pick tonight. Superstar Picks are our absolute best selections, carrying a win probability of 70 percent or better. All-Star Picks have a 60-percent or higher win probability.
Since we went live with this websites, our Superstar Selections have gone a perfect 3-0. Overall, all of the picks we have posted here or on Twitter/X are 27-10, a 73.0 winning percentage. We are up more than 8 units in that span.
We bounced back from two losses with an All-Star winner last night as the Brewers came up big late in the game as -125 favorites at San Francisco.
StatLogic Sports MLB Superstar Pick for 9/13
Minnesota Twins -210 vs. Cincinnati Reds (70% win probability) at 8:10 p.m. EDT
Bailey Ober (12-6, 3.77 ERA, 0.981 WHIP) vs. Julian Aguiar (1-0, 5.06 ERA, 1.359 WHIP)
Bailey Ober has been outstanding this year except for a very rare bad outing. He has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 13 of his last 14 outings and 21 of 27 overall. If you take away the two games in the last 15 that he has has given up more than 3 earned runs, he has allowed just 22 since June 4, posting a 2.02 ERA in that span. When he's bad, he tends to be very bad, but the rest of the time he's as good as it gets. With the Twins holding just a 3.5-game lead over Detroit in the race for the final wildcard spot in the American League, it seems likely that we will get good Bailey tonight.
Ober faces a young pitcher in Julian Aguiar who is making just his sixth Major League start. After posting a 6.43 ERA in his first three outings, Aguiar has settled down and allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 7.1 innings. That's partially because his leash is short and Cincinnati tries to get him out of games before trouble surfaces. He has only lasted more than 4.2 innings once, but somehow has thrown more than 90 pitches twice and threw 78 in another outing. That suggests control issues, as do his 2 walks in 3 of those 5 appearances, and an inability to put away hitters when ahead in the count. Minnesota ranks among the top-10 MLB teams in OPS vs. right handers at .732 and is 12th in batting average at.248. Cincinnati hits just .233 vs. righties to rank 24th and ranks 17th with a .703 OPS.
The main concern here is the Twins' bullpen, which is rated a little lower than the Reds' pen and has a 4.05 ERA compared to Cincy's 3.90. Both pens are rested, but Minnesota has won its last two games and is more likely to turn to its top relievers than the Reds, who are out of the postseason race and may be looking to give younger players an opportunity.
Can't Handle the Juice? We Think You Should Try!
For those bettors who shy away from odds shorter than -200, there are some other potential alternatives to betting the Twins for the full game at -210 or shorter. Keep in mind, however, that those bettors who have followed our advice and not strayed from the course for the last two decades have been profitable over the long term and ended most years with an ROI that has exceeded what other more traditional investment opportunities generally provide. The object is to win consistently over time. Winning a little bit at a time is much better than chasing odds and riding a roller coaster that ultimately is destined to end with you breaking even or losing money. We do not recommend straying from our Superstar Picks, but are willing to present other options if it make some of our customers happy. These options are NEVER recommended bets. Bet at your own risk!
Other alternatives for tonight include:
Twins run line -0.5 first 5 innings (-140) - removes the bullpen from the equation
Twins run line -1.5 full game (-108) - risky if the bullpen gives up a late run or two
Twins/Ravens money line parlay (-128) - Ravens favored by 8.5 points at home
Twins/Guardians money line parlay (+121)
Twins/Cubs money line parlay (+140)
Our handicap falls more in line with the first 5i run-line bet, but it is not at a Superstar level for us. The full game -1.5 run line just can get dicey if a team leads by several runs and doesn't use its best relievers. The situation can change in a hurry. Our model had the Guardians as a potential All-Star Selection for tonight with a win probability over 60 percent, but the game didn't meet our stringent requirements to be a recommended pick. And when you combine bets into a parlay, the edge decreases substantially. That's why the books make those odds so enticing; they win the vast majority of those bets historically. The same goes for the Cubs, who were not considered as an All-Star Pick playing in the bizarre conditions that Colorado's Coors Field always present. Chicago had been one of baseball's hottest teams recently but is just 5-5 in its last 10 and is in danger of falling out of the wildcard race. The Cubs have their ace on the mound and have had one of the league's top bullpens over the last two months going up against a bottom-end MLB pitching staff.
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