After splitting our two recommended and two bonus Major League Baseball picks last night, we come back tonight with only one pick, but it's a top-level selection. That's right, we have an MLB Superstar Selection, which means that our model as given at least a 7--percent win probability. Todah's pick is at the bottom of this page.
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5-1 (83.3%) +1.85 units
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StatLogic Sports MLB Superstar Pick for 9/18
Los Angeles Dodgers -175 at Miami Marlins (70% win probability) at 6:40 p.m. EDT
Landon Knack (2-4, 3.70 ERA, 1.089 WHIP) vs. Ryan Weathers (3-5, 3.55 ERA, 1.141 WHIP)
Knack has not been great lately, compiling a 7.88 ERA in two September appearances. After a strong 6-inning performance vs. Cleveland in which he allowed just 2 earned runs on five hits while striking out 8, he proceeded to permit 5 earned runs on 7 hits in 2 innings vs. Atlanta Sept. 13. Knack's year has been a bit of a roller-coaster ride, but he has solid overall numbers over 56 innings. Weathers, a once promising lefty prospect in the Padres system, is making his first MLB start since June 7, so the jury is out on him.
With one of the top offensive lineups in baseball, the Dodgers .264 batting average vs. left handers is second in the league, and their .782 OPS ranks third. Meanwhile, the Marlins are hitting .250 vs. right-handers with an OPS of just .694. An even larger advantage goes to the Dodgers in the bullpen as their back-end pitchers rank seventh in the league with a 3.63 ERA. Miami's pen has a 4.09 ERA.
Perhaps most important, however, is that Los Angeles enters the game coming off a loss at a critical juncture in the season. The Dodgers have the second-best National League record, and the top-two finishers receive a first-round postseason bye. They are two games in front of Milwaukee in the race for the second bye and trail the Phillies by a pair of games for the top seed. Los Angles averages 1.2 more runs per game than Miami and allows 0.8 less. The Dodgers' high-powered lineup, which has gotten healthier in recent weeks, should make the difference in this one.
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