By Scott L. - SL Sports
Believe it or not, there actually is some good news for fantasy football managers this week.
If you're a desperate fantasy manager heading into Week 14 of the National Football season, better known as Bye-mageddon Part Deux, you're certainly not alone
For us, this week has included pickups such as Sincere McCormick, Travis Homer and Will Levis. In our FFPC league championship we are starting Brock Purdy, but we dropped him in another league in a matchup that we have to win to make the playoffs. Will Levis was picked up a few weeks ago in case Purdy was injured and subsequently dropped to fill a running-back hole.
A few weeks ago while looking ahead, we picked up Ameer Abdullah in several leagues only to drop him in favor of what we hope will be a better flavor of the week in one league this week. We went all-in for Isaac Guerendo last week (after dropping him a month ago) in every league, but only managed to get him on one team.
Some of you are turning to Zach Charbonnet or Braelon Allen, both of whom have been rostered in many leagues for most of the season. If you had the patience to wait for those guys to get their chance, good on you. Charbonnet is a top play this week. He probably will win someone a championship. Guerendo probably will, too. Sincere McCormick could be this season's Zamir White after White turned into this season's Miles Sanders.
If you looked ahead or were patient with players who have upside and didn't get much run this season - and you aren't in scramble mode this week - congratulations on a job well done. Your teams probably are in great shape to win and hopefully earn a postseason berth.
But then again, maybe not.
And that's what makes fantasy football so fun and frustrating at the same time.
Some player we may not have heard of 10 days ago or a player who has never played more than a bit role during his career may step up and go off today, shattering our postseason and championship dreams while propelling another manager to a magical championship run.
No matter what, we can't be scared.
This is the week we have to believe in our convictions, take a few chances and poceed without caution. For those of us who have embraced the process throughout the year and put the time in every week to build depth and prepare for whatever curveballs where thrown at is, we have the upper hand on most opponents.
While every move and decision may not pan out, we've maximized our odds of being successful, and that's a good situation to be in with six teams on byes. Now it's time to believe in ourselves and our process and hopefully reap the fruits of our labor. And if it doesn't work out, while certainly frustrating, at least we can sleep soundly knowing that we did everything in our power to be successful.
At least that's how it works in theory.
Maybe by Wednesday or Thursday we'll be able to sleep well if things don't work out? Maybe by Christmas?
Good luck! Hopefully some of you have followed along with us throughout the season and are in a good spot for Week 14.
As for us, we entered one FPPC million-dollar high-stakes league. That team plays for the league championship today and has qualified for the national tournament Weeks 15-17. We also rebuilt one of our weakest teams into a juggernaut thanks to a receiving corps that includes Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Jordan Addison.
That team scored 175 points last week WITH JEUDY ON THE BENCH and currently holds the final playoff spot. It is tied with a team that has nine players on a bye this week, again illustrating the importance of looking ahead and building depth. This is the blueprint we have followed to multiple championships in the past. Just get into the dance, and if our team is peaking at the right time, we have a shot.
Three of our other teams are pretty safe bets to make the playoffs and a couple of others still are in the running but probably need miracles.
Every year we are most proud of making our weakest teams strong by the end of the year, and we've accomplished that with two of our squads that were terrible the first half of the season. Understanding how much luck is involved in fantasy football, being able to make bad teams good is a big part of the fun for us.
Now, turning to this week's DFS main slate, all the uncertainty that makes Week 14 challenging for full-season managers, provides us with great DFS opportunity. There are many extremely cheap plug-and-play guys available this week - several of whom were already mentioned here - who will be extremely popular and allow us to build lineups that include more high-end Tier 1 talent than usual.
Many times when there are fewer games and more teams on byes, DFS winning point totals may suffer. Often the winners score fewer points in these weeks than others, but that likely won't be the case today. That said, instead of focusing on avoiding highly owned players, this week it will be important to identify those players who are likely to see high volume, have a high floor and be highly owned.
We simply can't miss the boat on the lower-priced potential high-scorers such as Charbonnet and Guerendo and dig a big hole for ourselves. Alvin Kamara has been a Tier 1 stud running back in terms of volume and production all year. He has possibly the top matchup of the season given the Saints' injury situation and his opponent, the horrific New York Giants - who are bad AND missing their top defensive lineman. Kamara is likely to be the highest-owned player in DFS, but if he turns in the top fantasy performance of the year can we afford to miss out on that? Probably not.
So, this week is going to come down to biting the bullet, selecting some players who will be mass-owned and surrounding them with the right pieces to build a lineup that will score enough points to win some money. There are target scores almost guaranteed to win us some meaningful money in every type of contest. That number might be in the 120 range for a 50/50 game, around 150 for other cash games and closer to 200 for big tournaments.
We should try to figure out a plan and pathway to get to the score we need without necessarily worrying about which players are high owned. If we hit our number, none of that matters, so let's enter Week 14 with that mindset and put together lineups that maximize our odds of achieving that goal.
In the meantime, these players literally appeared in everyone's Week 14 DFS advice columns and are likely to be extremely popular. There wasn't much variety among the "experts:"
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Will Levis, Aidan O'Connell
These guys were mentioned over and over. All have great matchups and price tags that allow us to pay up in other areas or stack with top players such as Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley and Jakobi Meyers. By the way, Ridley and Meyers were in pretty much every weekly write-up, too. These are all great choices for a lineup or too, but maybe that means people will sleep on guaranteed top-five stud QBs Jaylen Hurts and Josh Allen.
Sleeper QB: Kyler Murray
Running Backs
Issac Guerendo, Zach Charbonnet, Alvin Kamara
Getting all three of these guys in some lineups probably makes sense, but we would look at using two of three in most instances. Guerendo and Charbonnet allow us to get high-floor, volume players and pay up elsewhere. That may mean paying up for Kamara as a Flex or snagging a Hurts, Allen, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Brock Bowers or another similar player. Don't sleep on MVP-candidate Saquon Barkely, who likely will be a great pivot if Kamara is in almost 50 percent of all DFS lineups.
Other Volume RBs to Roster: Kyren Williams, James Conner, James Cook, Najee Harris, Tony Pollard
Value RBs to Roster: Tyrone Tracy, Braelon Allen
Sleeper RBs: D'Andre Swift/Travis Homer (whoever starts), Sincere McCormick
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley, Jakobi Meyers, Jerry Jeudy, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
These are high-volume, lower-priced wideouts who everyone is looking at rostering this week. We don't want to miss out on these guys and might want to try them all in one lineup, but in most cases playing one or two of them and paying up elsewhere makes sense. Word of warning, recency bias will have a lot of casual players selecting Jeudy, and it's highly unlikely that he comes anywhere near his production last week. In fact, given that he has a tough matchup vs. the Steelers he may not even produce as he has in other recent weeks. Ridley and Meyers are players we want to get into lineups, but Jeudy is play at your own risk. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a more under-the-radar, value player who we see as a core guy who should be in most lineups and won't be as highly owned as the others. Ladd McConkey can be considered here if he plays.
Pay-up Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson, Puka Nucua, AJ Brown
Jefferson should be targeted as a core player in most, if not all, lineups. He has a great matchup and will be highly owned. Nucua and Brown should be used frequently. Adding Tier 2 receivers such as Mike Evans, Drake London and DK Metcalf should allow us to grab at least one of these top-tier players. The only fear with Brown is a potential Eagles blowout vs. Carolina, so maybe use him less than the others. Jauan Jennings should see plenty of targets today as well.
Value Volume Wide Receivers
George Pickens, Brian Thomas Jr., Jordan Addison, Khalil Shakir, Darnell Mooney
Top Value Wide Receivers
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Elijah Moore, Ray Ray McCloud, Jaylen Waddle, Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Pay-up Tight Ends
Brock Bowers, Trey McBride
These guys are listed almost everywhere when it comes to DFS lineup builds this week, and some optimizers even have them listed as FLEX players. While they are pay-up for tight ends, they become value, volume receivers given their price when they outperform so many wide receivers. Having a TE in the FLEX spot is a great way to differentiate ourselves, too.
Core Tight End
Cade Otton
His numbers have dropped with the return of Mike Evans, so this is the week to make him a core component in most or all of our lineups.
Value Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth, Grant Calcaterra, Juwan Johnson, Will Dissly
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