Believe it or not, we've reached Week 10 of the NFL season. The season always takes so long to get here but seems to fly by once it starts. This year is no different.
November is the time of year that really tests a team's depth as injuries mount, and that’s why the teams that are the deepest and best-coached often seem to rise to the top toward the end of the season. And that is exactly what makes the Kansas City Chiefs so scary. The last two years they've ramped up and played their best football of the year in late November, December, January and yes, in February.
This year, despite injuries that have sidelined their top wide receiver and some of his replacements as well as their No. 1running back, the Chiefs are 8-0. It hasn't been pretty. Their offense has yet to hit on all cylinders, although with Travis Kelce returning to a prominent role and a successful homecoming for Kareem Hunt, Kansas City seems to be finally hitting its stride on that side of the ball. While it's true that Patrick Mahomes has been more of a game manager than a playmaker this season, no player makes more crucial plays in clutch situations with the game on the line. Just ask Tampa Bay, which watched helplessly as Mahomes made play after play in crunch time to lift his team to an overtime win last week.
Despite the injuries, Kansas City has been the most consistent team in the AFC, even though everyone loves to talk about Baltimore's high-octane offense led by perennial MVP-candidate Lamar Jackson and future Hall-of-Fame running back Derrick Henry. The Ravens just aren't the same team on defense as in past years, and their propensity to forget about Henry at times and struggle to close out games is concerning and puts them behind the Chiefs in our rankings.
As the season progresses, almost everything seems to regress to the mean. This is not unusual; NFL season is a marathon and a war of attrition, so coaching, depth and organizational management are what separate the contenders from the pretenders.
The Detroit Lions have been the most consistent and impressive team and are starting to separate themselves overall despite the loss of All-Pro defensive lineman Aidan Hutchinson. They are blowing out teams on the strength of a two-headed monster of a running game featuring Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. If that approach fails, and it almost never does, Jared Goff, Amon Ra-St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams match up with almost any passing attack in the league. Detroit isn't great in the secondary, but the Lions still generate pressure up front and are stout vs. the run. They clearly have separated themselves as the best team in what has turned out to be the NFL's best division.
Detroit occasionally still has to overcome the in-game coaching antics of HC Dan Campbell, so if they ever get challenged in an important contest, that is a concern. But there is no more complete team in football, so maybe even Disco Can can't mess this one up.
Part of our rankings process includes moving teams up and down in the initial phase each week based on game results, injuries and other information. We are trying to determine where teams rank as of today instead of where they might rank in a month or six weeks if injured players return. Once that is done, we run the relevant numbers through our algorithm then add the input of bookmakers and the sharp betting market. Finally, as the week progresses, we track the injury reports, sharp line moves and other breaking news and run each team through a rigorous set of rules and guidelines to get a composite number that is unaltered.
Advanced stats, coaches' in-game decision-making, recent form, depth after injuries and many other factors are considered before the final numbers are produced. We tweak our results throughout the week and update them in real time as game scores and new injuries flood in on Sundays. Our power rankings are not subjective. There are teams we feel may be overvalued or undervalued, but that can be valuable info when looking at point spreads and finding edges as the lines move throughout the week.
Our Week 10 NFL power rankings are below, and we feel that is important to understand that they are based on a formula and process, not on the opinion of any one person or group of people. Earlier in the week, we use the information at our disposal to determine which games might present an edge one way or another for bettors before the lines move too far in the wrong direction.
The numbers are the numbers, but the teams we think may be undervalued or overvalued are listed below the rankings along with games where we feel there might be a betting edge as of Wednesday afternoon.
At the top of the heap, a score of 100 is perfect. Right now, the Lions are considered the "perfect" team based on the results to date, their current state of health and everything else that is going on around the league. Some weeks we have no "perfect" team, but as we mentioned previously, Detroit has begun to separate itself.
The games where we see potential betting edges and this week's recommended picks also are listed below the power rankings. This is where our process starts and how we start to narrow down games as potential recommended All-Star or Superstar picks. All-Star picks have a 60-percent or better win probability. Superstar Selections have a win probability of 70 percent or higher.
Our "edge games" alone are 18-17 the last two weeks, so we are batting above .500 before we even begin the final process of running the games through our algorithm and putting them through our rigorous rules and guidelines.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Pick for Week 11
Falcons money line -185 vs. Saints (70% win probability) - LOSS
StatLogic Sports All-Star Pick for Week 11
Vikings & Bears money line parlay at -120 - LOSS
Here is a look at our StatLogic Sports Week 10 NFL Power Rankings and games with potential early betting edges:
Lions - 100.0
Chiefs - 99.5
Ravens - 99.0
49ers - 98.0
Bills - 97.5
Eagles - 97.0
Commanders - 96.5 (slight injury downgrade)
Vikings - 96.5
Packers - 96.0
Steelers - 96.0
Bengals - 95.5
Texans - 95.0
Falcons - 95.0
Chargers - 95.0
Cardinals 93.0
Jets - 94.0
Rams 93.5
Seahawks - 93.0
Bears 92.5
Dolphins - 92.5
Buccaneers - 92.0
Colts - 92.0
Broncos - 91.5
Browns - 90.5
Jaguars - 90.0
Giants 90.0
Titans - 89.5
Cowboys - 89.5
Saints - 89.0
Raiders - 89.0
Patriots - 88.5
Panthers - 87.0
Possibly Overvalued
Bengals, Jets, Dolphins, Giants
Possibly Undervalued
Broncos, Bucs
Week 10 NFL Possible Betting Edges
Bills -4 at Colts - WIN
Jaguars +7 vs. Vikings & OVER 43 - WIN/LOSS
Chiefs -7.5 vs. Broncos & UNDER 42.5 - LOSS/WIN
Titans +8 at Chargers & UNDER 40
Lions money line at Texans (spread at -2.5 or better)
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