Rankings updated following TNF
Week 11 of the 2024 National Football League season is here, and this is the time that the playoff races start to come into focus, the weather takes a turn for the worse, weaker teams start playing for the future and the real contenders begin to separate themselves from the pretenders.
Week 10 began with a another Bengals-Ravens classic, and on Sunday we had a pulsating one-point game between Washington and Pittsburgh, a pair of teams that entered the week leading their divisions. Those four teams proved that they are all legitimately in the postseason discussion, preparing themselves for even bigger showdowns this week. The Commanders and Eagles kick off Week 11with a Thursday-night tilt in the City of Brotherly Hate that will determine first place in the NFC East, while Pittsburgh and Baltimore renew their unfriendly rivalry Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh.
While those two premier NFL matchups will take place in the Keystone State, those aren't the only measuring-stick games with potential postseason implications on the Week 11 slate. AFC-rivals Buffalo and Kansas City, a pair of top-five teams in our weekly power rankings, also meet on Sunday afternoon as the host Bills look to knock the chiefs off of their undefeated perch atop the conference and league standings. In addition, the Chargers host Cincinnati Sunday Night in a game that could have a major impact on both teams' wildcard hopes, while San Francisco and Seattle face off in a game that could help break up the NFC West logjam.
And Atlanta travels to Denver in another intriguing matchup as the surprising Broncos try to continue their march toward the postseason against another quality opponent. The Falcons are the prohibitive favorite to win the NFC South but are coming off of an awful loss to the struggling Saints. Denver has rolled along winning games no one thought possible thanks to a suffocating defense and the continued improvement of rookie quarterback Bo Nix. And while the 49ers have shown signs of being the team we always expect them to be, injuries have taken a toll and they will a face a desperate Seattle team that has had its share of injuries but gets receiver DK Metcalf back after a few weeks on the sidelines.
When the dust settles after this weekend, we should know if the NFC East will be a dogfight or Washington is more likely destined to be a wildcard team, whether the born-again Steelers offense is legit enough for Pittsburgh to actually win the division and if the Chiefs really are the Chiefs or if their season-long magic act might be a sign that there are holes in their lineup that might prevent them from a three-peat. Cincinnati either will be in the thick of the playoff race or on the verge of elimination - same with Seattle - and San Diego either will be in the driver's seat to qualify for the postseason or looking at an impending dogfight during the season's final seven weeks.
Part of our rankings process includes moving teams up and down in the initial phase each week based on game results, injuries and other information. We are trying to determine where teams rank as of today instead of where they might rank in a month or six weeks if circumstances change. Once that is done, we run the relevant numbers through our algorithm then add the input of bookmakers and the sharp betting market. Finally, as the week progresses, we track the injury reports, sharp line moves and other breaking news and put each of the week's matchups through a rigorous set of rules and guidelines to get a composite number that is unaltered.
Advanced stats, coaches' in-game decision-making, recent form, depth after injuries and many other factors are considered before the final numbers are produced. We tweak our results throughout the week and update them in real time as game scores and new injuries flood in on Sundays. Our power rankings are not subjective. There are teams we feel may be overvalued or undervalued, but that can be valuable info when looking at point spreads and finding edges as the lines move throughout the week.
Our Week 11 NFL power rankings are below, and we feel that is important to understand that they are based on a formula and process, not on the opinion of any one person or group of people. Early in the week, we use the information at our disposal to determine which games might present an edge one way or another for bettors before the lines move too far in the wrong direction.
The numbers are the numbers, but the teams we think may be undervalued or overvalued are listed below the rankings along with games where we feel there might be a betting edge as of Thursday afternoon.
At the top of the heap, a score of 100 is perfect. Right now, the Lions are considered the "perfect" team based on the results to date, their current state of health and everything else that is going on around the league. However, their number is rounded up slightly as they came back to the pack a tiny bit given their early struggles in a come-from-behind win at Houston Sunday. So, in reality they are not quite the "perfect" top-ranked team at this point.
The games where we see potential betting edges and this week's recommended picks also are listed below the power rankings. The rankings are where our process starts and how we begin to narrow down games as potential recommended All-Star or Superstar picks. All-Star Picks have a 60-percent or better win probability. Superstar Selections have a win probability of 70 percent or higher.
Our "edge games" alone are 29-21-1 the last four weeks, so that's where we are starting from before we even begin the final process of running the games through our algorithm and putting them through our rigorous rules and guidelines.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for Week 11
Superstar Picks have a 70% or better win probability
Rams money line -190 at Patriots (70% probability) - WIN
Packers money line -265 at Bears (70%) - WIN
Vikings money line -260 at Titans (75%) - WIN
Parlay City
We do not recommend parlays, however for anyone who can't handle the juice on these picks, parlaying any or all is always an option.
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for Week 11
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
Steelers +3.5 vs. Ravens (69%) - WIN
Bengals at Chargers UNDER 48.5 (68%)
Here is a look at our StatLogic Sports Week 10 NFL Power Rankings and games with potential early betting edges:
Lions - 100.0
Chiefs - 99.5
Ravens - 99.0
Bills - 98.0
Eagles - 98.0
49ers - 97.5
Steelers - 96.5
Vikings - 96.0
Packers - 96.0
Commanders - 96.0
Texans - 96.0
Cardinals - 95.0
Chargers - 94.5
Falcons - 94.5
Bengals - 94.0
Rams - 93.5
Buccaneers - 93.0
Broncos - 92.5
Dolphins - 92.5
Seahawks - 92.5
Jets - 92.0
Browns - 90.5
Saints - 90.0
Colts - 90.0
Jaguars - 90.0
Bears - 89.5
Cowboys - 89.0
Titans - 88.5
Raiders - 88.5
Patriots - 88.0
Panthers - 88.0
Giants - 87.5
Possibly Overvalued
Rams, Dolphins
Possibly Undervalued
Bucs
Week 11 NFL Early Betting Edges
Eagles money line vs. Commanders - WIN
Bears +6 vs. Packers - WIN
Saints +2 vs. Browns - WIN
49ers vs. Seahawks UNDER 49 - WIN
Vikings at Titans UNDER 40 - WIN
Bills money line vs. Chiefs & UNDER 47 - WIN/LOSS
Colts +4 at Jets & OVER 43 - WIN/WIN
Chargers money line vs. Bengals - WIN
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