As we speed toward the conclusion of the 2024 NCAA college football season and top teams jockey for position in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, we continue to refine the weekly picks that our proprietary algorithm produces. Here is our seventh version of the StatLogic Sports NCAA College Football Power 35 for Week 12.
These are power rankings for the top 35 teams based on a combination of performance, the good old eye test, our numbers, the market and the bookmakers' opinions. We also got a new batch of data from the College Football Playoff rankings this week to consider. As the week goes on information such as injuries are added to help adjust numbers as well as other considerations, rules and guidelines that are applied to the weekly picks our model provides for us.
This week, after several upsets and some less-than-stellar performances by teams at the top of our rankings in Week 11, the teams at the top have gotten a little more jumbled with much less separation. More teams playing more games against better competition can propel teams that have been undervalued and drop teams that have been overvalued as the data corrects itself.
BYU has been undervalued all year because so many "sharp" bettors feel that they have been fortunate to win a few games and that the advanced numbers don't support them as a weekly favorite and top 10 team. The gambling media who follow the sharps and don't deviate - but who don't run their own numbers - tend to reinforce this belief to the masses, which can cause a large percentage of "pro and joe" wagers on the side the sharps feel is overvalued. Sometimes this causes a really good team to be substantially undervalued.
One thing about the sharps is that once they are on or against a team they tend to stay there because they expect regression and don't want to miss that when it inevitably happens. Since sharp money shapes the market, that reluctance to believe their eyes or trust in the actual game results sometimes can benefit the more casual bettors, especially as the gambling media gets behind the pros.
We believe that BYU continues to be undervalued, but the Cougars have a tough test at home against a hot Kansas team that has faced its share of bad luck this season. Something has to give here, but we have BYU as a substantial favorite at home despite a line that has hovered around the -2.5 mark all week.
Because these power rankings are objective numbers, there almost always are teams like BYU that we feel likely are overvalued and undervalued based on our model and guidelines. Indiana finally seems to be rising close to where we have valued them for several weeks, while Clemson fell to a more-appropriate level before bouncing back this week and some of the other "brand" names such as Michigan, Oklahoma and USC now are more appropriately rated. BYU still is struggling to gain any traction with our numbers, which is interesting because Texas still remains at the very top despite not having any consequential big wins. Indiana has moved into the top 10, which is where they should be, but it will take a quality win vs. Ohio State next week for the Hoosiers to gravitate toward the top five.
We are always tweaking our process as the season continues and these numbers are updated throughout the week based on the factors mentioned above right up until the first kickoff of the day every Saturday.
We used this process to determine our recommended picks each week and to list games that we feel have betting edges. Those can be found below as well. Superstar Picks have better than a 70-percent win probability according to our model, while All-Star Selections have a 60-percent or better win probability. Below the rankings are the games we felt had betting edges before running the numbers through our algorithm as well as our strenuous rules and restrictions.
We will update the recommended picks and edges right up until the early kickoffs on Saturday each week.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for Week 12
Superstar Picks have a 60% or better win probability
Washington -180 money line vs. UCLA (70% probability) - WIN
StatLogic Sports All-Star Pick sfor Week 12
TBD - All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability
StatLogic Sports Week 12 NCAA Football Power 35
Oregon 99.5
Ohio State 99.0
Texas 98.5
Penn State 97.0
Alabama 97.0
Mississippi 96.5
Georgia 96.0
Notre Dame 95.0
Indiana 94.5
Miami 94.0
SMU 93.5
Clemson 93.5
Tennessee 93.0
South Carolina 93.0
BYU 92.0
Texas A&M 92.0
Kansas State 92.0
Louisville 91.5
Colorado 91.0
LSU 91.0
Boise State 90.0
Arizona State 89.0
Washington State 88.5
Tulane 88.0
Iowa State 87.5
Vanderbilt 87.0
Kansas 87.0
Missouri 86.5
Baylor 86.0
UNLV 85.5
TCU 84.5
Pittsburgh 84.0
Iowa 84.0
West Virginia 83.5
Texas Tech 83.5
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Minnesota 83.5
Florida 83.5
USC 83.5
Wisconsin - 83.5
California 83.5
Central Florida 83.0
Arkansas 83.0
Virginia Tech 83.0
Cincinnati 83.0
Army 82.5
Utah 82.5
Georgia Tech 82.0
Washington 82.0
Auburn 82.0
Oklahoma 81.5
Kentucky 81.0
Illinois 80.5
Boston College 80.5
Michigan - 80.0
UCLA 80.0
Syracuse 79.5
Michigan Stae 79.5
Nebraska 79.0
North Carolina 79.0
Duke 78.5
Likely Overvalued
Texas, Penn State, Georgia, SMU, Clemson, Kansas, Missouri,
Likely Undervalued
BYU, Tennessee, UNLV
Week 12 StatLogic Sports NCAA College Football Betting Edges
Friday Games
UTSA money line -120 vs. North Texas - WIN
Arizona money line -115 vs. Houston - WIN
Saturday Games
Posted Saturday morning
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