Here is our eighth version of the StatLogic Sports NCAA College Football Power Rankings. This week, as we head into the final regular-season week of play, we are presenting our Power 50 instead of the top 35.
This edition is for Week 14 of the 2024 NCAA College Football season and includes betting edges and recommended picks that will be posted as our model finalizes them. Our full slate of betting edges will be posted by the noon Eastern kickoffs on Saturday along with any additional recommended bets.
These are power rankings for the top 50 teams based on a combination of performance, the good old eye test, our algorithm's numbers, the market and the bookmakers' opinions. We also got a new batch of data from the College Football Playoff rankings this week to consider.
As the week goes on, information such as injuries are added to the mix to help adjust numbers as well as other considerations such as the weather and the importance of the game to both teams. Our strict rules and guidelines are then applied to the weekly picks our model provides to give us our recommended selections for the week.
After several weekends of upsets and some less-than-stellar performances by teams at the top of our rankings, the teams at the top have gotten a little more jumbled with much less separation. Some teams that play more difficult schedules have beaten up on each other and dropped some in the rankings as team's with easier slates such as Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame have continued to inch their way to the top. Also, for the first time in many weeks, Oregon has been replaced at the top of the rankings (barely) by Ohio State.
Texas remains entrenched at No. 3 despite no signature wins most likely thanks to the eye test and belief among the the bookmakers and sharp betting market that they are that good despite their weaker schedule. We may find out more this weekend as they take on a solid Texas A&M team that is ranked 17th. The Longhorns have done a good enough job against the level of opponents they've faced, according to our model, to earn that position, and that sentiment is shared by the market.
The Big 12 also continues to eat its own, creating a teeter-totter effect among teams such as Colorado, BYU, Iowa State and Kansas State at the top of that league. It's a strong and deep conference this year, but the individual power rankings are suffering as teams beat each other on a weekly basis. This weekend will determine conference-championship matchup, which will shed more light on where the teams rank heading into the College Football Playoff and which teams are likely to be invited or earn their way into the dance.
Tulane's home loss to Memphis also ensured that next week's Mountain West championship game, with UNLV hosting Boise State, will determine which Group of 5 Team advances to the CFP and also makes it less likely that the Big 12 will only send one team to the playoff.
We are continually tweaking our process as the season continues and these numbers are updated throughout the week based on the factors mentioned above right up until the first kickoff of the day every Saturday. This process is utilized to determine our recommended picks each week and to list games that we feel have betting edges. Games with potential edges can be found below as well.
Superstar Picks have better than a 70-percent win probability according to our model, while All-Star Selections have a 60-percent or better win probability. Below the rankings are the games we felt had betting edges before running the numbers through our algorithm as well as our strenuous rules and restrictions.
Our college football games with betting edges have gone 116-104-3 through Week 14's games.
We will update the recommended picks and edges right up until the early kickoffs on Saturday each week.
StatLogic Sports Superstar Picks for Week 14
Superstar Picks have a 70 or better win probability
Illinois and UConn money line parlay at -131 WIN
StatLogic Sports All-Star Picks for Week 14
All-Star Picks have a 60% or better win probability - TBD
StatLogic Sports Week 14 NCAA Football Power 35
Ohio State 100.0
Oregon 99.5
Texas 98.5
Georgia 98.0
Penn State 97.5
Notre Dame 96.5
Miami 96.5
Tennessee 96.0
Indiana 95.0
SMU 93.5
Clemson 93.5
South Carolina 93.0
Mississippi 92.5
Alabama 92.5
Arizona State 92.0
Boise State 91.5
Texas A&M 90.5
Kansas State 90.0
LSU 90.0
Iowa State 90.0
Colorado 89.5
Florida 89.5
BYU 89.0
Louisville 89.0
Oklahoma 88.5
TCU 88.0
Tulane 88.0
Kansas 87.5
Missouri 87.5
USC 87.5
Iowa 87.0
Illinois 87.0
UNLV 87.0
Minnesota 86.0
Nebraska 86.0
Syracuse 85.5
Arkansas 85.5
Auburn 84.5
Texas Tech 84.5
Georgia Tech 84.5
California 84.5
Washington State 84.5
Pittsburgh 84.0
Wisconsin 84.0
Boston College 84.0
Baylor 83.5
Vanderbilt 83.5
Washington 83.0
Duke 83.0
Michigan 82.5
Potentially Overvalued
Texas, Penn State, Oklahoma, Clemson
Potentially Undervalued
Tennessee, Colorado, Illinois, Syracuse
Week 14 NCAA College Football Betting Edges
Friday Games
Nebraska - Iowa UNDER 41.5 - WIN
Iowa money line -142 vs. Nebraska - WIN
Utah +10 at Central Florida - WIN
Saturday Games
UTSA at Army OVER 53 - PUSH
South Carolina +3 at Clemson OVER 48.5 - WIN/LOSS
Boston College money line -170 vs. Pitt - WIN
North Carolina money line -140 vs. NC State - LOSS
Central Michigan +14 at Northern Illinois & OVER 39.5 - WIN/WIN
Eastern Michigan +7 at Western Michigan & OVER 55 - LOSS/LOSS
Arizona State -8 at Arizona - WIN
BYU -11 vs. Houston - WIN
UCLA -7.5 vs. Fresno State - LOSS
Rice +6 vs. USF - WIN
Texas Tech money line -135 vs. West Virginia - WIN
Southern Mississippi +17.5 at Troy - LOSS
Texas -4.5 at Texas A&M - WIN
Kentucky +4.5 vs. Louisville - LOSS
Iowa State -1/money line -118 vs. Kansas State - WIN
Louisiana -9.5 at Louisiana Monroe - WIN
Wyoming at Washington State OVER 55.5 - LOSS
Nevada at UNLV OVER 55.5 - WIN
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