Updated after Thursday Night Football
On the surface, it appears that the 2024 National Football League season has been wild and whacky, but as we get deeper into the season and the numbers become more concrete, upon further review maybe it hasn't been as nuts as we might think.
Certainly the Washington Commanders, led by Rookie of the Year virtual-lock Jayden Daniels, have been the biggest surprise of the season. And while in the end they seemed fortunate to win against the Bears thanks to their Hail Maryland last week, a closer look at that game shows that they completely dominated for 52 minutes and had two touchdowns taken away on iffy calls.
We have seen the 49ers fall back to the pack in the muddled NFC West, but that has 100 percent been because of early holdouts and injuries. That also is nothing new for San Francisco, which still is one of the most-talented and well-coached teams in the NFL. Injuries seem to be common for this franchise; the Niners frequently have found themselves floundering a bit heading into November only to turn it on and run away with the division and advance deep into the postseason. That is a tribute to the front office, the depth on the roster and the coaching. Nothing has changed there.
The Steelers have been the Steelers, staggering along and managing to win ugly games against teams that everyone thinks are better than them. Mastermind Mike Tomlin now has injected some life into the team with the promotion of QB Russell Wilson, a veteran calming voice in the huddle who simply is letting the game come to him, taking what the defense gives him and watching his defense dominate from the sidelines. That may be a recipe for Tomlin and his guys to do a lot more than just produce a winning record this year.
While it's not surprising to see the Chiefs at the top of the NFL with a perfect record through nine weeks, the fact that they are doing it with a very pedestrian offense and all of their top weapons except Travis Kelce out with injuries seems to have caught many off guard. But that shift began last year. Kansas City's defense stepped up and was the backbone of their championship run a year ago, and the D is strong enough now that the injuries on offense don't matter as long as Patrick Mahomes manages the game and makes a few plays in critical situations. As long as Mahomes and Reid are running the offensive show, this team will be the favorite to win it all.
The Lions continue to be an offensive juggernaut, and the team seems intent on making a statement by trying to blow teams out on a weekly basis. But Dan Campbell still lets his emotion get involved way too often and the questionable in-game decisions continue in close games. That hasn't changed and likely will cost Detroit at some point down the road, just like it did last year.
People expected the Bills to go away, but Josh Allen has taken a page out of the Mahomes handbook. He's managing games, taking care of the ball and turning into Superman only in the key moments. The defense there still is solid - and possibly even better than in the past - and the running game is very good. They've finally made peace with the fact that a strong running game can take them far. They were expected by many to fall off this year, but are right there where they always are.
Some folks are surprised by the Jets' terrible performance, and while there were pundits who actually picked them to win the AFC East and labeled them as Super Bowl contenders, anyone with half a clue could see how hard it was going to be for a team with questionable coaching leadership, an elderly quarterback coming off a serious injury and a serious lack of chemistry and togetherness. There are way too many me-first egos in that locker room, and the guy behind center leads the way there.
In looking at the top 10 teams in our StatLogic Sports NFL Power Rankings, the only other surprise in addition to Washington, is the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings and quarterback Sam Darnold have started to fall back to Earth, however, and they appear likely to finish third in the NFC North as long as Jordan Love and the Packers get healthy in the next few weeks. Minnesota was projected to finish third or fourth by most analysts in what has become the NFL's best division.
As the season progresses, almost everything seems to regress to the mean. This is not unusual. The NFL season is a marathon and a war of attrition, so coaching, depth and organizational management are what separate the contenders from the pretenders. The difference in Washington this year points to an upgrade in each of those areas; the Commanders have new ownership, a completely revamped and talented coaching staff with brilliant offensive and defensive minds and a potentially generational franchise quarterback.
That is how you turn around an organization quickly and how you surprise the rest of the league.
The Texans are a top 10 team that may climb the ranks and push to move into the top six as some of their injured players such as Nico Collins return.
A look beyond the top 10 shows us that the Bengals may be poised to make their usual late-season run after a ton of early season drama. The Rams, a true surprise last season, likely are dangerous now that they are getting healthy thanks to outstanding coaching, a great running game and a group of veterans on offense who know how to control clock and manage games. The Cowboys, as usual, began the season overvalued and probably are right where they belong.
Atlanta is laying in the weeds and might have the offensive talent to carry an underwhelming defense a farther than usual. This is not a big surprise, however, as there were analysts who had the Falcons running away with the NFC South and possibly advancing to the NFC Championship prior to the start of the season.
Tampa Bay has plummeted in the rankings despite Baker Mayfield's high level of play mainly because of injuries on both sides of the ball. The Bucs, as expected, were a threat to make the playoffs before the setbacks. Seattle is falling fast as well, but still is very capable offensively and in the thick of the race in the jumbled NFC West. The Seahawks have the offensive talent to compete with anyone and a defensive-minded coach, which should allow them to stay in the race and move back up to where they probably belong in the rankings. Injuries have been an issue there as well.
The Jets remain overvalued for some reason, and the Dolphins should surge back closer to where they belong now that Tua Tagovailoa is back despite a disappointing loss to Arizona in his Week 8 return to the lineup.
The Broncos and Cardinals, checking in at Nos. 21 and 22, probably deserve better rankings, but the betting market and bookmakers have been slow to come around on them. Kyler Murray is playing better than expected and than most people think. Denver rookie Bo Nix gets better each week. The Broncos continue to overachieve in most people's minds, but they have a strong, hard-nosed defense and really good offensive coaches. That seems to be the formula for success in 2024. Murray, a group of underrated receivers, an elite tight end and veteran warrior running back James Conner make Arizona dangerous enough offensively to stay in games despite an average-at-best defense.
In the NFL, if you can keep games close anything can happen. Arizona and Denver both are candidates to be true surprise teams by the end of the season. We feel that they currently are undervalued, while the Jets continue to be overvalued.
Part of our rankings process includes moving teams down in the initial phase of the process each week when key players are out or likely to be out with injuries, because we are trying to determine where teams rank as of today, not where they might rank in a month or six weeks if injured players return. Once that is done, we run the relevant numbers through our algorithm then add the input of bookmakers and the sharp betting market. Finally, as the week progresses, we track the injury reports, sharp line moves and other breaking news and run each team through a rigorous set of rules and guidelines to get a composite number that is unaltered.
Advanced stats, coaches' in-game decision-making, recent form, depth after injuries and many other factors are considered before the final numbers are produced. We tweak our numbers throughout the week and update them in real time as game results flood in on Sundays. Our power rankings are not subjective. There are teams we feel may be overvalued or undervalued, but that can be valuable info when looking at point spreads and finding edges as the lines move throughout the week.
Our Week 9 NFL power rankings are below, and we feel that is important to understand that they are based on a formula and process, not on the opinion of any one person or group of people. Earlier in the week, we use the information we have to determine which games might present an edge one way or another for bettors before the lines move too far in the wrong direction.
The numbers are the numbers, but the teams we think may be undervalued or overvalued are listed below the rankings along with games where we feel there might be a betting edge as of Wednesday afternoon.
At the top of the heap, a score of 100 would is perfect. At the moment, our numbers actually have no team ranked as "perfect," with the Chiefs and Lions almost even. Baltimore is better than it's record, but at some point the team's propensity to let bad or average teams hang around and to abandon the league's best running game for no apparent reason has to have more of an impact on the Ravens' ranking. The 49ers remain ranked near the top as they prepare to get Christian McCaffrey back and look to hit their late-season stride as usual.
The games where we see potential betting edges also are listed below the power rankings. This is where our process starts and how we start to narrow down games as potential recommended All-Star or Superstar picks. Our "edge games" alone are 18-17 the last two weeks, so we are batting above .500 before we even begin the final process of running the games through our algorithm and putting them through our rigorous rules and guidelines.
Here is a look at our StatLogic Sports Week 9 NFL Power Rankings and games with potential early betting edges:
Chiefs - 99.5
Lions - 99.5
Ravens - 99.0
49ers - 98.5
Bills - 98.0
Eagles - 97.0
Commanders - 96.5
Vikings - 96.0
Packers - 96.0
Steelers - 95.5
Texans - 95.5
Falcons - 95.0
Chargers - 94.0
Bears - 94.0
Bengals - 94.0
Rams - 94.0
Cowboys - 93.0
Buccaneers - 92.5
Seahawks - 92.5
Jets - 92.5
Cardinals - 92.5
Broncos - 92.0
Dolphins - 92.0
Colts - 91.5
Saints - 91.0
Jaguars - 91.0
Giants - 91.0
Browns - 90.0
Patriots - 89.0
Titans - 89.0
Raiders - 88.5
Panthers - 87.5
Possibly Overvalued
Eagles, Chargers
Possibly Undervalued
Cardinals, Broncos, Colts (with Flacco)
Week 9 NFL Possible Betting Edges
Titans money line vs. Patriots - WIN
Saints -7 at Panthers - LOSS
Bills -6 vs. Dolphins and UNDER 49.5 - LOSS/LOSS
Falcons money line vs. Cowboys - WIN
Broncos +9.5 at Ravens - LOSS
Bengals -7 vs. Raiders & UNDER 46.5 - WIN/LOSS
Colts at Vikings UNDER 47 - WIN
Commanders money line at Giants & UNDER 44.5 0 WIN/LOSS
Cardinals money line vs. Bears - WIN
Seahawks +2 vs. Rams - LOSS
Lions -2.5 at Packers - WIN
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers UNDER 46 - LOSS
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